Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
714 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
To begin the short term period, the upper level ridge is continuing
to shift eastward, promoting southeasterly flow and an increase in
moisture advection. This increase in moisture will allow for better
coverage of showers and thunderstorms throughout the region than
observed over the previous few days. Convection this afternoon is
diurnally driven in nature with slight to low end chance PoPs. The
greatest coverage will be in the southern parts of our region.
Thunder has been limited so far this afternoon due to a mid-level
inversion, so limited thunder probability to slight chance through
the evening.

Moisture will continue to build into the area on Wednesday as the
ridge further dampens and chance PoPs are to be expected throughout
the majority of the CWA. The highest moisture content is anticipated
across western GA and will therefore go with higher-end chance PoPs
over that location. Instability values today and tomorrow will be
marginal at best so severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.
It is still possible, however, to see a few strong storms develop
along colliding outflow boundaries. High temperatures this afternoon
are expected to reach into the low 90s in many locations, and will
be slightly cooler tomorrow due to greater cloud coverage associated
with the greater atmospheric moisture, with highs in the upper
80s.

King

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
No major changes made to the extended forecast. Increased moist
southerly flow in the extended periods will bring a much wetter
pattern to the southeastern U.S.  Will also see a diurnal trend to
the showers and thunderstorm through day 7 but there appears to not
be enough instability generated through the period to warrant much in
the way of severe storms. There is rather significant differences
between the models models with respect to rain amounts and where,
with the GFS continuing to be the wetter of the bunch. Eventually,
the upper flow becomes more easterly allowing for the possibility of
easterly waves that could help enhance rain chances over the weekend
and into the beginning of next week. Temps will be close to
seasonal norms throughout the long term forecast.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Convection is dissipating and by 01/02Z most of the convection
will have dissipated leaving mostly clear skies for tonight. There
could be some light fog in AHN/MCN but most places will remain
VFR. Cu field to develop Wednesday with a little more coverage on
convection during the afternoon. Winds will be light southeast to
calm, becoming southwest in the morning, then southeast again in
the afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on winds Wednesday.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  89  71  90 /  10  30  20  40
Atlanta         73  88  72  89 /  10  40  30  50
Blairsville     65  85  65  84 /  10  50  30  60
Cartersville    71  89  70  88 /  10  50  30  60
Columbus        73  90  72  91 /  30  50  30  40
Gainesville     71  87  70  88 /  10  40  30  50
Macon           72  90  71  91 /  20  30  30  40
Rome            71  90  70  89 /  10  50  30  60
Peachtree City  71  88  70  89 /  20  40  30  50
Vidalia         73  91  73  91 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...17

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
244 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-291845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
244 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible over much
of north and central Georgia, mainly this afternoon and evening.
A strong storm cannot be ruled out with gusty winds,
occasional lightning, and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase
the rest of the week and through the weekend. At this time,
the threat for any severe weather is low, however, a few storms
could be strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning and
heavy rainfall. Persistent heavy rainfall could lead to
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
802 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

GAZ078-079-089-090-290045-
Chattahoochee GA-Harris GA-Talbot GA-Muscogee GA-
802 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHATTAHOOCHEE...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS...SOUTHWESTERN TALBOT AND NORTHEASTERN MUSCOGEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

At 801 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Box Springs, or 9
miles southwest of Talbotton. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Waverly Hall, Upatoi, Ellerslie, Box Springs and Baughville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3279 8474 3261 8454 3253 8460 3253 8464
      3249 8464 3249 8466 3261 8489
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 141DEG 3KT 3258 8465

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH