Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

Only minor tweaks to the forecast. Over the last 24 hours the
stationary front has barely moved due to enhancement from relatively
low pressure between the high pressure in the midwest and the
Bermuda high in the Atlantic. Tomorrow morning, however, the front
will begin to lift northward due to a low pressure system moving
from the TX panhandle into the Midwest. By Tuesday morning, the
forecast area will be placed firmly in the warm sector, where the SW
flow from the accompanied longwave trough will continuously pump
moisture and rainfall back into the area this week. Previous
discussion follows...

Thiem

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
The main feature for the forecast today is the stationary front
draped across central Georgia, which will help to provide a focus
for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in the area. North of
the front resides a pocket of drier air which is reflected in the
low pops for portions of northern and western Georgia. In addition,
a weak short wave looks to move from Alabama through north Georgia
today, but with limited moisture not expecting much activity besides
an increased chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the
northeast mountains.

For Monday, as the trough over the eastern US starts to deepen, we
get into a more southwesterly flow and moisture starts to work its
way back into the area. Along with it will be increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Expecting a bit higher coverage over the
area on Monday compared to what is expected today as the pattern
begins to shift into what will be a more wet pattern.

High temperatures through the short term period will be generally in
the 80s and lower 90s across the area with lows in the 60s and lower
70s.

Reaves

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

Forecast remains largely on track through the extended period with
an upper level trough dropping into the central CONUS from the
northwest. As the longwave trough develops over the area,
southwesterly flow and a resultant increase in deep layer moisture
can be expected, along with increased surface instability and
difluence aloft. The trough will stall over the area during the
rest of the week and thus the stream of deep moisture will remain
in place over the CWA for the rest of the extended period. Showers
and thunderstorms could occur at any time but will be most
organized with shortwaves that move through the flow. The most
widespread coverage of convection will occur from Tuesday through
Thursday with likely to categorical PoPs expected at that time. A
surface high pressure will then try to build towards the area from
the east which will decrease PoPs slightly into the end of the
week.

Model QPF indicates generally between 2 and 4 inches of rain over
the area through Saturday, with the highest amounts expected in
the north and east. Although these rainfall amounts will be spread
out over several days, it is possible that isolated areas could
receive locally heavier rainfall with each shortwave that moves
through the area. As soils become more saturated through the week,
there could be a concern for flooding where locally heavy
rainfall occurs. We will continue to monitor the trends as the
event gets closer.

Temperatures will be moderated by the increased cloud coverage and
precipitation activity through the long term period. High
temperatures will be several degrees below normal, only reaching
into the mid 80s while low temperatures will run around normal.

King

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions for the area with showers and thunderstorms
possibly impacting AHN/MCN sites this afternoon. After mixing,
winds are weak and VRB, but primarily out of the WSW-NW for ATL.
Expecting a shift back to SE later this evening around 4Z, then
back to SW tomorrow morning. Possible MVFR/IFR cigs in the
morning, but confidence is low and not included in official
forecast. Expecting thunderstorms to return to TAF sites tomorrow
afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low on timing of wind shifts tonight and tomorrow morning.
Low on morning ceilings.
High on all other elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  88  71  85 /  30  50  40  80
Atlanta         72  89  72  85 /  20  50  50  80
Blairsville     65  83  66  79 /  30  40  50  80
Cartersville    69  90  71  84 /  10  50  50  80
Columbus        73  92  74  88 /  10  50  40  70
Gainesville     70  86  71  83 /  20  50  50  80
Macon           72  90  73  87 /  20  50  50  80
Rome            68  91  71  85 /  10  40  50  80
Peachtree City  70  90  72  86 /  10  50  40  80
Vidalia         73  89  74  87 /  50  50  50  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Thiem
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...Thiem

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
324 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-300730-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
324 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across much of
central and east Georgia today, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. The best area for development is along and east of
a line from Blue Ridge to Jackson to Columbus. A few storms could
contain frequent lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day. The
best days for numerous thunderstorms are Tuesday through Friday.
Some storms could be strong with frequent lightning, gusty winds
and locally heavy rain. With multiple days of thunderstorm
activity, soils may quickly become saturated leading to localized
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
412 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2018

GAZ097-111-112-292045-
Wheeler GA-Montgomery GA-Laurens GA-
412 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHEELER...MONTGOMERY AND
SOUTHEASTERN LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 411 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Glenwood, or near
Alamo...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Alamo, Mount Vernon, Glenwood, Uvalda, Ailey, Alston, Spring Hill,
Landsburg, Jordan and Charlotteville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3192 8265 3196 8269 3200 8272 3201 8275
      3224 8291 3233 8274 3231 8273 3229 8267
      3231 8265 3211 8246 3197 8248 3196 8250
      3195 8248 3196 8257 3193 8259 3194 8260
      3192 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 325DEG 13KT 3218 8272

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
434 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2018

GAZ097-109-292100-
Laurens GA-Dodge GA-
434 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAURENS AND NORTHERN
DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 433 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Plainfield, or 8
miles northeast of Eastman...and was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Chester, Dexter, Cadwell, Rentz, Plainfield, Yonkers and Cedar Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3212 8307 3234 8326 3250 8301 3227 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 217DEG 6KT 3230 8309

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2018

GAZ110>113-292130-
Toombs GA-Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-Montgomery GA-
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TOOMBS...SOUTHEASTERN WHEELER...
SOUTHEASTERN TELFAIR AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 500 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Vidalia to near Lumber City...and moving south at
10 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph...pea sized hail and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Lyons, Mount Vernon, Vidalia, Lumber City, Uvalda, Ailey, Scotland,
Higgston, Santa Claus, Alston, Towns, Center, Ohoopee, Spring Hill,
Ponderosa, McNatt Falls, South Thompson, Rock Springs, Jordan and
Charlotteville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3182 8284 3198 8290 3235 8243 3235 8241
      3232 8236 3229 8235 3229 8231 3222 8221
      3218 8219 3195 8251 3196 8253 3196 8257
      3193 8259 3192 8268 3190 8269 3186 8276
      3185 8279 3184 8279 3181 8282
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 015DEG 9KT 3225 8243 3192 8278

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
518 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2018

GAZ096-097-109-292145-
Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-
518 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAURENS...EASTERN
BLECKLEY AND NORTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 518 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Chester, or 11 miles
north of Eastman...moving northwest at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cochran, Chester, Dexter, Dudley, Cadwell, Rentz, Plainfield,
Yonkers, Roddy, Rowland, Harlow, Goldsboro and Rebie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3229 8289 3217 8311 3242 8337 3259 8302
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 148DEG 5KT 3236 8314

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
524 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2018

GAZ086-098-110>113-292200-
Toombs GA-Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-
524 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TOOMBS...WHEELER...EASTERN
TELFAIR...EMANUEL...EASTERN TREUTLEN AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL
600 PM EDT...

At 524 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Portal to near Charlotteville...and moving east
at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Swainsboro, McRae, Lyons, Alamo, Mount Vernon, Vidalia, Twin City,
Lumber City, Glenwood, Uvalda, Stillmore, Oak Park, Ailey, Scotland,
Higgston, Garfield, Santa Claus, Alston, Nunez and Tarrytown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3254 8203 3256 8208 3252 8215 3235 8225
      3217 8218 3191 8223 3194 8228 3193 8232
      3197 8248 3195 8249 3196 8255 3192 8268
      3185 8279 3184 8278 3184 8279 3191 8302
      3273 8220 3272 8210 3266 8208 3260 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 273DEG 11KT 3257 8196 3198 8254

WIND...40MPH