Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
826 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Convection continues over portion of north Georgia, associated
with upper trough. As precip sinks southward into the area, storms
remain supported by outflows and boundaries, but are on the whole
on a weakening trend. Will continue to update pops and weather as
applicable for latest radar trends. Have made minor adjustments to
hourly temperatures and dew points, as well as PoPs through the
overnight and morning periods to account for latest model
solutions.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 243 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

A weak short wave rotating around the upper low to the north was
bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms to north GA this
afternoon. This area of precip will shift southward toward ATL/AHN
by 00Z, however the showers will dissipate by late this evening
except for the extreme north. Scattered tstorms across central
Georgia will shift southward as well, dissipating toward sunset.

Models in good agreement in bringing the upper low and associated
cold pool aloft over Georgia by Monday. This will bring an extensive
cloud shield to the CWA Monday and Monday Night. This will also
destabilize the atmosphere bringing numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the forecast area. The thunderstorms will likely be
confined to the afternoon and evening hours. Due to the cloud
shield, max temps on Monday will be a few degrees below normal.

17

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

A deep and nearly cut-off upper level trough will influence our
weather for the middle of the week until stronger westerlies,
digging down ahead of upstream trough, absorb and push it off the
east coast. As a result, POPs will be highest Tues/Wed before dryer
air trys to work in and limit convection back to more typical
isolated-widely scattered afternoon/evening activity. Temps will be
several degrees below normal Tues/Wed due to clouds and showers
associated with the upr trough. By the end of the week as this
feature moves away, temps should rebound back to near normal levels
for late July. No major changes with the extended forecast.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Storms still impacting the area, and continue to expect convection
to dissipate into tonight. Expect to see MVFR cigs over north and
portions of western GA, but for now, they look to stay away from
the TAF sites. Have included FEW020 after 09z, but continue to
show BKN low VFR through the morning hours. Although showers are
expected to be off and on through the afternoon and evening, could
see some thunderstorms impact the sites. Winds will shift
northward through the morning, eventually veering NE after 18z for
most locations. Speeds should be 7kt or less through the day.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on cigs for 09-14z.
Medium on timing of wind shift.
High on all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  85  69  85 /  60  70  60  50
Atlanta         70  84  71  85 /  50  70  60  60
Blairsville     62  79  64  79 /  60  70  70  60
Cartersville    67  84  68  85 /  60  70  60  60
Columbus        72  87  72  88 /  20  60  60  50
Gainesville     67  83  69  83 /  60  70  60  50
Macon           70  88  71  88 /  30  60  60  60
Rome            68  84  68  86 /  60  70  60  60
Peachtree City  69  85  69  86 /  40  70  60  50
Vidalia         72  89  72  89 /  40  50  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-231000-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup-
Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-
Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-
Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Treutlen-Stewart-Webster-
Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge-Telfair-Wheeler-
Montgomery-Toombs-
250 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon through Tonight...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across
north and central Georgia through early this evening. Main threats
will be small hail, locally heavy rain, brief gusty winds to 35 mph
and cloud to ground lightning. Isolated strong to severe storms are
possible but widespread severe weather is not anticipated through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected Monday
through Saturday. A few storms could be strong to severe on any
day with the main hazards being strong gusty winds, frequent
lightning and minor flooding from heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CORDELE                 31.96N  83.78W
07/22/2018                   CRISP              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN CORDELE, GA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800727

JKING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

GAZ025-027-036>038-230015-
Madison GA-Jackson GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-Oconee GA-
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE...CLARKE AND
NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 740 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Westgate Park, or near
Athens...moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Watkinsville, Lexington, Athens, Winterville, Bogart, Crawford,
Colbert, Arnoldsville, Hull, Athens-Clarke County, Whitehall,
Westgate Park, James Holland Youth Sports Cmpx, Bear Creek Reservoir,
Smithonia, Beechwood Hills, Sandy Creek Recreation Area, Oconee
Heights, Barnett Shoals and Barretts Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3386 8307 3381 8335 3395 8357 3396 8355
      3397 8354 3398 8354 3408 8343 3406 8326
      3401 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 294DEG 18KT 3398 8346

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1037 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

GAZ071>073-081-082-230300-
Baldwin GA-Monroe GA-Bibb GA-Crawford GA-Jones GA-
1037 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BALDWIN...SOUTHEASTERN MONROE...
BIBB...NORTHERN CRAWFORD AND JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM EDT...

At 1037 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Blountsville to near Musella...and moving southeast at
25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Macon, Milledgeville, Gray, Roberta, Payne, Payne City,
Midway-Hardwick, Postell, Lake Tobesofkee, Bradley, Wayside,
Allenwood, Mountain Springs, Griswoldville, Wesleyan, Skipperton,
Arkwright, Hardwick, Browns Crossing and Ethridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3280 8412 3318 8346 3307 8311 3305 8310
      3306 8305 3301 8306 3298 8311 3301 8315
      3299 8318 3297 8316 3298 8322 3285 8351
      3281 8349 3274 8358 3274 8360 3270 8360
      3267 8365 3269 8377 3263 8386
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 298DEG 20KT 3311 8347 3282 8398

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH