Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
The weak surface high pressure ridge/wedge continues across the area
and has built in fairly deep across the region. Lowered ceilings are
expected to continue across the area through the short term as this
wedge is not expected to weaken until Monday afternoon. Most areas
across North and portions of central GA are still running about 5 to
7 deg lower than what we have seen over the past few days but thats
mainly due to the overcast skies and showers. There are also a few
thunderstorms but the wedge is still keeping things below severe
limits. These storms should continue through the evening hours and
diminish by midnight. A few showers continued across the area over
night last night so thinking we may still see some isolated showers
overnight tonight. Will see another round of showers and
thunderstorms Sun afternoon as well, and with the wedge still in
place not expecting much in the way of severe storms Sunday either.
This falls right in line with the general thunderstorm risk the
entire southeastern U.S. is under through Monday.

01

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Minimal changes to the extended forecast, with the majority of the
period on track with latest model guidance. Continued to massage
pops with neighbors, and in general still expect above seasonal
chances through next week, with chances remaining through the
overnight periods as the unsettled moist environment continues
over the region, even with FROPA. Previous forecast discussion
follows.

31

/Issued 332 AM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018/
Medium-range models continue to be in fairly good agreement
through the majority of the Long- Term Forecast period. Upper-
level flow transitions to a higher amplitude pattern as we head
into the period as the upper ridge retreats westward and amplifies
with a deepening trough digging into the eastern U.S. Sharp
frontal boundary sags into the forecast area by midweek, lingering
over the region through the latter half of the week. Some drier
air does try to fill into the north Wednesday/Thursday behind the
front, but I do not anticipate this will be enough to eliminate
POPs altogether across the north. Weak wave indicated along the
old frontal boundary moves across the area late in the week and
into the weekend should spread better rain chances back north late
in the period. High POPs and seasonal temperatures are expected
through the Extended Forecast period.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Ceilings have finally come up into the VFR range but just barely
expecting them to go back down again over night into the MVFR and
IFR range through Sun morning. Ceilings will lift again through
late Sun morning back into the VFR range. VSBYs should Stay
mainly VFR with some brief periods of MVFR readings in and around
SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and again Sun. Winds will be mainly out
of the East to Southeast with speeds 10kt or less with some
higher gust associated with thunderstorms.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  88  72  89 /  30  40  40  60
Atlanta         72  87  73  88 /  50  50  50  60
Blairsville     66  82  67  83 /  30  50  40  60
Cartersville    71  88  72  89 /  40  50  50  60
Columbus        74  89  75  90 /  60  60  50  60
Gainesville     71  86  72  87 /  30  40  40  60
Macon           72  89  73  89 /  50  40  50  60
Rome            71  89  72  90 /  30  50  50  70
Peachtree City  71  87  72  88 /  50  60  50  60
Vidalia         74  91  74  90 /  30  40  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
235 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-151845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
235 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across north and
central Georgia tonight, most numerous this afternoon and
evening. A few storms could become strong to severe with damaging
wind, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday through
Friday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each
day with strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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