Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
The weak surface high pressure ridge/wedge continues across the area
and has built in fairly deep across the region. Lowered ceilings are
expected to continue across the area through the short term as this
wedge is not expected to weaken until Monday afternoon. Most areas
across North and portions of central GA are still running about 5 to
7 deg lower than what we have seen over the past few days but thats
mainly due to the overcast skies and showers. There are also a few
thunderstorms but the wedge is still keeping things below severe
limits. These storms should continue through the evening hours and
diminish by midnight. A few showers continued across the area over
night last night so thinking we may still see some isolated showers
overnight tonight. Will see another round of showers and
thunderstorms Sun afternoon as well, and with the wedge still in
place not expecting much in the way of severe storms Sunday either.
This falls right in line with the general thunderstorm risk the
entire southeastern U.S. is under through Monday.

01

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Minimal changes to the extended forecast, with the majority of the
period on track with latest model guidance. Continued to massage
pops with neighbors, and in general still expect above seasonal
chances through next week, with chances remaining through the
overnight periods as the unsettled moist environment continues
over the region, even with FROPA. Previous forecast discussion
follows.

31

/Issued 332 AM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018/
Medium-range models continue to be in fairly good agreement
through the majority of the Long- Term Forecast period. Upper-
level flow transitions to a higher amplitude pattern as we head
into the period as the upper ridge retreats westward and amplifies
with a deepening trough digging into the eastern U.S. Sharp
frontal boundary sags into the forecast area by midweek, lingering
over the region through the latter half of the week. Some drier
air does try to fill into the north Wednesday/Thursday behind the
front, but I do not anticipate this will be enough to eliminate
POPs altogether across the north. Weak wave indicated along the
old frontal boundary moves across the area late in the week and
into the weekend should spread better rain chances back north late
in the period. High POPs and seasonal temperatures are expected
through the Extended Forecast period.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Ceilings have finally come up into the VFR range but just barely
expecting them to go back down again over night into the MVFR and
IFR range through Sun morning. Ceilings will lift again through
late Sun morning back into the VFR range. VSBYs should Stay
mainly VFR with some brief periods of MVFR readings in and around
SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and again Sun. Winds will be mainly out
of the East to Southeast with speeds 10kt or less with some
higher gust associated with thunderstorms.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  88  72  89 /  30  40  40  60
Atlanta         72  87  73  88 /  50  50  50  60
Blairsville     66  82  67  83 /  30  50  40  60
Cartersville    71  88  72  89 /  40  50  50  60
Columbus        74  89  75  90 /  60  60  50  60
Gainesville     71  86  72  87 /  30  40  40  60
Macon           72  89  73  89 /  50  40  50  60
Rome            71  89  72  90 /  30  50  50  70
Peachtree City  71  87  72  88 /  50  60  50  60
Vidalia         74  91  74  90 /  30  40  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
235 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-151845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
235 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across north and
central Georgia tonight, most numerous this afternoon and
evening. A few storms could become strong to severe with damaging
wind, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday through
Friday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each
day with strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
306 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018

GAZ092-093-104-141930-
Macon GA-Schley GA-Sumter GA-
306 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MACON...SOUTHEASTERN
SCHLEY AND NORTHEASTERN SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 306 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Ellaville to New Era...and moving east at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Frequent lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. If you can
           hear thunder...you are close enough to be struck by
           lightning. Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding
           especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Americus, Ellaville, Andersonville, Andersonville National Historic,
Methvins, Bumphead, New Era, La Crosse and Pennington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.  Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3234 8424 3210 8402 3206 8415 3226 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 279DEG 6KT 3227 8429 3212 8413

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
328 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018

GAZ092-093-104-105-142000-
Macon GA-Schley GA-Dooly GA-Sumter GA-
328 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MACON...SOUTHEASTERN
SCHLEY...SOUTHWESTERN DOOLY AND NORTHEASTERN SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL
400 PM EDT...

At 328 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Ideal to near New Era...and moving east at 15
mph.

  HAZARD...Frequent lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. If you can
           hear thunder...you are close enough to be struck by
           lightning. Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding
           especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Ellaville, Oglethorpe, Montezuma, Ideal, Andersonville, Whitewater
State Park, New Era, Fountainville, Flint River Wma, La Crosse,
Pennington, Andersonville National Historic, Clearview, Methvins,
Bumphead and Bartlett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.  Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3245 8410 3206 8396 3207 8413 3228 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 250DEG 11KT 3234 8420 3210 8410

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
343 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018

GAZ079-080-142015-
Taylor GA-Talbot GA-
343 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN TAYLOR AND SOUTHEASTERN
TALBOT COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 343 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Baldwinville to near Mauk to Rupert...and moving east
at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
           in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Junction City, Rupert, Charing, Howard, Mauk and Baldwinville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3250 8443 3252 8443 3252 8444 3253 8445
      3256 8445 3256 8448 3268 8446 3269 8436
      3255 8433 3243 8423 3240 8431
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 281DEG 5KT 3267 8444 3253 8444 3243 8430

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
416 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018

GAZ038-142045-
Oglethorpe GA-
416 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN OGLETHORPE COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM EDT...

At 415 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Philomath, or 8 miles
southeast of Lexington...and is nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
           in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Maxeys and Philomath.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3373 8296 3371 8304 3371 8306 3370 8312
      3372 8317 3374 8321 3385 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 237DEG 7KT 3376 8304

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