Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
831 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Near term forecast in pretty good shape. Convective complex in
eastern TN still chugging along and just now moving into far north
GA. Decent cold pool behind this line with temps around 70F. Not
seeing many svr reports in last hour or so but will keep a close
eye on it. Another smaller area of showers/storms over westcentral
GA but cloud tops warming and radar trends also decreasing
quickly. Hires models again of little value. Appears only recent
HRRR runs have decent handle on observed trends and very near term
so far. Should see convection dissipate by 11p to midnight.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Upper level ridge still building in place over the gulf states,
keeping our area generally in west to northwest flow through the
short term period. A perturbation moving through the flow in
addition to diurnal heating will bring us showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon with another round of showers and
thunderstorms possible this evening, mainly across northern
Georgia. Have kept slight chance to chance pops across the area
for isolated to scattered coverage of showers/storms this
afternoon and evening. A few severe storms are not out of the
question, especially across northern Georgia.

For Wednesday, diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected
again in the afternoon/evening. Later on Wednesday afternoon, a
short wave trough will push through the area and with it a focus
for showers and thunderstorms in conjunction with diurnal heating.
These showers/storms may linger into the evening as well. The
best chances for the strongest storms will be across northern
Georgia. A few storms may become severe with the main hazard being
damaging winds.

High temperatures today and Wednesday are in the 80s and 90s. Max
heat index values are around 100-103 in central Georgia for both
today and Wednesday. Trends will continue to be monitored as this
is just below heat advisory criteria.

Reaves

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

The forecast is on track with little changes needed at this
update. A trough and associated front will move through later
Wednesday through the overnight which should be the axis by which
we see most convection during this time. Expecting linear
development of showers and thunderstorms to move through from
north to central GA. The boundary will sag south of the area and
will be the catalysis for thunderstorms develop during Thursday
and Friday afternoons. By the weekend into next week, strong high
pressure will build overhead with ample ridging aloft. This will
result in widespread diurnal convection each afternoon/evening.

Temperatures will be AOA normal through the period.

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 424 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018/

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

As the long term portion begins, a shortwave trough will be
pushing through the region late Wed evening into Wed night.
Although guidance is not really emphasizing this feature, fell
combination of this enhanced lift and residual instability will be
enough to keep convection going into the first half of the
overnight period.

Will continue in a NW flow type pattern through the end of the
week so will be difficult to time individual impulses within the
flow. May be less of a diurnal trend to pops during this time
period but for now have continued to indicate highest pops during
the afternoon hours. Some indications of perhaps some drier air
working into the NE corner of the forecast area Fri but may not be
enough to shut down convection completely given aforementioned
lift.

Mid and upper level high moves over the NE states for the weekend
into early next week. Deep layer moisture will traverse the
southern extent of this to bring higher rain chances back to the
area. Precipitable water increases to 2 inches by late Sat and
continues into Sun. Some notable dry air to move in from the east
by early next week with PW values falling to at or slightly below
seasonal norms.

Deese

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Main concern is TSRA likelihood this evening. Isold SHRA and TSRA
east of ATL has dissipated but watching area about 50nm to the
southwest of ATL. Have kept TEMPO TS going until 02Z. With rain
and cool air in NE GA, could see some IFR cigs near KAHN but
otherwise VFR elsewhere tonight and Wed morning. Another round of
TSRA likely Wed afternoon after 22Z but not much confidence in
coverage. Have used PROB30 for now in most areas. Sfc winds
light SW becoming W 5-8kts after 15Z Wed.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low-Medium confidence on TSRA likelihood tonight and Wed
afternoon.
High confidence in all other elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  90  72  93 /  50  50  40  30
Atlanta         74  90  75  91 /  30  40  40  40
Blairsville     66  84  67  86 /  50  60  50  30
Cartersville    71  90  72  91 /  40  50  40  40
Columbus        76  93  76  93 /  20  30  30  50
Gainesville     71  88  72  90 /  50  50  40  30
Macon           74  93  74  94 /  20  40  30  50
Rome            71  90  72  92 /  30  50  40  30
Peachtree City  72  91  73  91 /  30  40  30  50
Vidalia         75  94  76  94 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...SNELSON

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
254 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-271900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
254 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across north and central
Georgia this afternoon. Isolated storms will be strong to severe,
with the main hazards damaging winds, large hail, frequent
lightning, and isolated flooding from heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

There will be an enhanced chance of strong to severe storms later
Wednesday into Wednesday night as an upper level storm system
moves across the area bringing likely storm coverage to North
Georgia.

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day for the rest of the
time period through next week, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours with few storms becoming strong to severe each day
with gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated flooding from
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1254 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2018

GAZ058>061-071>074-270530-
Butts GA-Washington GA-Putnam GA-Baldwin GA-Monroe GA-Hancock GA-
Jones GA-Jasper GA-
1254 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BUTTS...NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...PUTNAM...BALDWIN...MONROE...HANCOCK...JONES AND SOUTHERN
JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM EDT...

At 1253 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Jackson to near Culverton...and moving south at 20
mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Milledgeville, Eatonton, Jackson, Forsyth, Gray, Monticello, Sparta,
Flovilla, Midway-Hardwick, Meriwether, Beulah, Wayside, Allenwood,
Round Oak, Hardwick, Browns Crossing, McElheneys Crossroads, Collier,
Juliette and Ethridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3311 8272 3293 8348 3298 8404 3330 8404
      3338 8282 3327 8278 3325 8275
TIME...MOT...LOC 0453Z 356DEG 16KT 3330 8398 3336 8292

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
100 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2018

GAZ038-050-051-060-061-270530-
Taliaferro GA-Putnam GA-Hancock GA-Oglethorpe GA-Greene GA-
100 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TALIAFERRO...NORTHEASTERN
PUTNAM...NORTHERN HANCOCK...SOUTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE AND GREENE
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM EDT...

At 100 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Penfield, or near
Greensboro...moving south at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Greensboro, Crawfordville, Union Point, Woodville, White Plains,
Siloam, Maxeys, Reynolds Plantation, Phoenix, Liberty, Stephens,
Springfield, Veazey, Robinson, Daniel Springs, Powelton, Carey,
Penfield, Lyneville and Philomath.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3334 8333 3348 8329 3349 8328 3353 8328
      3353 8327 3355 8328 3379 8328 3382 8329
      3379 8298 3362 8288 3363 8288 3363 8287
      3349 8284 3346 8287 3343 8285 3343 8283
      3338 8282
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 356DEG 16KT 3366 8315

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2018

GAZ071>073-081>084-270600-
Wilkinson GA-Baldwin GA-Monroe GA-Bibb GA-Crawford GA-Jones GA-
Twiggs GA-
135 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WILKINSON...WESTERN
BALDWIN...EASTERN MONROE...BIBB...NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...JONES AND
NORTHERN TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM EDT...

At 135 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Resseaus Crossroads to near Plant Scherer...and
moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Macon, Milledgeville, Gray, Gordon, Ivey, Payne, Payne City,
Midway-Hardwick, Postell, Lake Tobesofkee, Bradley, Wayside, Mountain
Springs, Griswoldville, Round Oak, Wesleyan, Arkwright, Browns
Crossing, Juliette and Ethridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3312 8391 3318 8339 3291 8311 3270 8386
TIME...MOT...LOC 0535Z 332DEG 13KT 3319 8347 3309 8385

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
200 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2018

GAZ060-072-073-082>084-270630-
Wilkinson GA-Putnam GA-Baldwin GA-Bibb GA-Jones GA-Twiggs GA-
200 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILKINSON...SOUTHERN PUTNAM...
BALDWIN...NORTHEASTERN BIBB...JONES AND TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM
EDT...

At 158 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Haddock, or 7 miles
east of Gray...moving southeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Macon, Milledgeville, Gray, Jeffersonville, Irwinton, Gordon, Ivey,
McIntyre, Toomsboro, Midway-Hardwick, Meriwether, Marion, Postell,
Bradley, Wayside, Allenwood, Mountain Springs, Griswoldville, Round
Oak and Plant Harlee Branch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3257 8354 3313 8366 3323 8327 3321 8326
      3319 8327 3318 8324 3279 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 0558Z 313DEG 20KT 3302 8341

WIND...40MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
301 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2018

GAZ074>076-084-270730-
Jefferson GA-Wilkinson GA-Washington GA-Glascock GA-
301 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN JEFFERSON...WILKINSON...
WASHINGTON AND GLASCOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM EDT...

At 300 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Mitchell to near Jeffersonville...and moving east
at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Sandersville, Gibson, Irwinton, Wrens, Davisboro, Tennille, McIntyre,
Toomsboro, Stapleton, Oconee, Avera, Mitchell, Deepstep, Edge Hill,
Edgehill, Hamburg State Park, Downs, Grange, Nicklesville and
Stapletons Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3265 8313 3271 8330 3280 8335 3298 8312
      3295 8307 3299 8305 3302 8306 3313 8290
      3324 8278 3324 8275 3326 8275 3330 8265
      3326 8225 3323 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0700Z 263DEG 12KT 3326 8268 3273 8329

WIND...40MPH