Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
725 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Evening convection is ongoing and should continue for the next
several hours. Do think activity could continue until 9-10pm
before really diminishing in coverage/strength. Have kept thunder
in for the entire overnight period. Updated some of the hourly
temp/dew grids.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 329 PM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

The closed upper low over the OH Valley will drift slowly northeast
into the Great Lakes area on Saturday and weaken. North and central
GA will remain in a broad trough through tonight...with the upper
flow becoming more zonal on Saturday. Weak impulses will persist and
rotate around the trough. The air mass will continue to destabilize
and showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move
across the area through this evening.  The convection today and
tomorrow will be enhanced by diurnal heating but expect some storms
to linger overnight...mainly north and west. Moderate instability
this afternoon should support a few strong to severe storms with
damaging wind and hail possible. Otherwise not as hot mainly north
and west due to more clouds...but much of central GA will still
reach into the low and mid 90s with overall fewer clouds and lower
chances for thunderstorms. Heat index values will remain below
advisory criteria tomorrow.

41

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Not much change in the over all pattern for the next 7 days.
North and Central GA stays in West to northwesterly upper level
flow through the middle of next week. This will allow waves and
moisture to continue to move across the area keeping the
Southeastern U.S. convectively active through the period. Still
expecting mainly diurnally driven storms each day as
instabilities peak everyday between 18z-00z across the CWA. The
airmass is also expected to stay fairly moist with PWs in the 1.5
to 1.9 inch range through day 7 as well. Temperatures remain warm
through the weekend and into next week. With dewpoints in the 70s
and above normal temperatures, heat index values will creep into
the lower 100s almost every day, especially over portions of
central and eastern Georgia. Although we are not anticipating
having to issue any heat advisories...those spending prolonged
periods outdoors should take frequent breaks and drink plenty of
water.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Thunderstorms should continue to impact the airports for the next
couple of hours. Do think activity should start to diminish in
coverage/strength between 9-10pm. Storms have contained gusty
winds and do think 25-30kt is not out of the question. Not
confident that IFR clouds will develop overnight, but have put in
a sct IFR deck. Winds (outside of thunderstorms) should remain on
the west side.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  89  72  94 /  50  50  10  20
Atlanta         72  90  74  92 /  50  50  20  20
Blairsville     64  83  67  86 /  40  50  30  40
Cartersville    70  87  72  92 /  50  60  20  30
Columbus        75  93  75  94 /  60  50  10  10
Gainesville     70  86  72  90 /  40  50  20  30
Macon           74  93  74  96 /  60  50  10  20
Rome            69  87  72  92 /  60  60  20  30
Peachtree City  72  91  73  93 /  60  50  10  20
Vidalia         75  94  76  97 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NListemaa