Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
240 PM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Main focus of the short term continues to be the convection expected
this afternoon and evening. This activity is associated with a
shortwave moving through the region, and at this time is beginning
to move into far north Georgia from Tennessee. Daytime heating has
been enough to punch through two inversions and provide more than
sufficient instability. Still anticipate portions of central Georgia
to see CAPE in excess of 3000-3500 J/Kg. This unstable environment,
combined with the deep moisture profile and shortwave energy will
allow for at least scattered thunderstorm development, if not more
significant in coverage. Hi-Res short-term models have backed off in
both coverage and intensity, so updated forecast package does have
slightly lower PoPs through the early evening hours. Will continue
to monitor and determine whether further adjustments may be needed.

Unlike yesterday with what ended up being a meek wind threat,
modeled DCAPE over the area approaches 2000 J/Kg today, and could
result in severe storms producing strong damaging winds. SPC does
have the state in a Marginal Risk for severe storms, with wind being
the main concern, and hail also possible.

Beyond this evening, the shortwave moves through and puts the state
in dry northwest flow before high pressure centers over the region.
As a result, benign weather is expected - certainly a welcome change
from the soggy, active pattern the region has been in in recent
weeks.  Temperatures will reach into the 80s Monday, and with dew
points settling into the 50s, overnight lows will be cool.

31

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
No major changes to the current long term forecast. Previous long
term discussion follows...

17

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

Continued good news in the long term as the dry air sinks farther
south into the area through much of the week with consecutive
days of little to no precipitation expected across north/central
GA. While a closed low drops into New England Tuesday through
Wednesday, the energy associated with this system should stay
well north of the region. It should be noted that there is a weak
impulse rounding this trough in the central CONUS that may
provide enough lift to result in a MCS type complex dropping south
into the Gulf Coast states Wednesday. This should have little
impact in GA, possibly providing an increase in clouds across the
southwestern tier. Confidence on this feature is low at this time,
so have kept the area dry. At the surface high pressure remains
in control through Thursday, eventually shifting offshore.

The closed low/trough pivots off the the coast Thursday through
Friday with weak NW flow aloft as ridging in the desert SW tries
to build further east. Impulses will increase within the northern
stream with better deep layer moisture moving into the region to
end out the week. This will mean a better chance of seeing
showers/thunderstorms Friday into Saturday, especially across
north GA. The coverage however still seems limited given most of
the energy remains to our north.

26

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions through the period. Challenging precip/TS forecast
as organized convection is expected to impact the state today.
Have continued TEMPO for 20-00z for the metro-Atlanta area, and an
hour or so after for KCSG, KAHN and KMCN. Expect gusty winds
within/near convection, otherwise northwest winds at 8-12kt with
gusts to 20kt. Expect winds to come down somewhat overnight before
increasing back to 9-12kt after 15z. Clearing skies after
afternoon/evening storms will remain VFR through the remainder of
the period, with quiet weather in store through Monday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on TSRA potential and timing.
High on all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  86  61  84 /  20   0   0   5
Atlanta         65  84  64  84 /  20   0   0   5
Blairsville     56  79  54  80 /  30   0   0   5
Cartersville    60  84  59  84 /  20   0   0   5
Columbus        68  88  64  88 /  30   0   0   0
Gainesville     63  84  62  82 /  20   0   0   5
Macon           68  88  62  88 /  30   0   0   5
Rome            61  84  59  84 /  10   0   0   5
Peachtree City  64  86  60  85 /  20   0   0   5
Vidalia         73  89  67  89 /  30   5   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-040800-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
245 PM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. A
few of these storms could become severe with damaging winds,
frequent lightning and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms over parts of central Georgia
Thursday afternoon, and across the entire region Friday and
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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