Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1032 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.UPDATE...
Raised PoPs across far north Georgia over the next several hours
to account for the complex of thunderstorms that has developed
across southern Tennessee and along the TN/GA border. Models did
not have a handle on the development of this activity, and hi-res
model data still does not represent current trends well. Generally
expect most of this activity to remain in the northern counties
over the next few hours. Precip trends will be monitored,
particularly over northeast Georgia where very heavy rainfall
amounts have occurred over the past several days, and any
additional heavy rainfall would exacerbate flooding issues.

RW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 743 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 258 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Diurnal convection continues this afternoon, and already seeing
high rainfall amounts associated with cells that remain/back-build
over the same area. More organized convection developing north of
the GA/TN border is expected to drop into the northern zones over
the next hour or so. These storms are producing significant
lightning, small hail and heavy rainfall. Hi-Res short term models
suggest that this complex of storms will drop into the northern
metro Atlanta area, but may begin weakening/dissipating as daytime
heating shuts off. Have kept likely pops over the northern
portions of the state through early evening to capture best
chances.

Friday looks to be a near-repeat of today as outflow boundary from
TN triggers organized convection over the northern portions of the
state. Unfortunately this could once again drench areas that are
already saturated. Timing still continues to be a concern, with
the models solutions vastly different in timing into the state (on
the order of hours). Model instability is higher than today, and
at this time SPC has a Marginal Risk of severe storms over all of
north Georgia - north of a line from Carrollton to Washington.

Have generally used a guidance blend for temperatures and
dewpoints, which has been a good overall performer the last
several days. Expect a gradual warming trend to continue as cloud
scattering late in the morning/early afternoon will allow for
better insolation.

Although widespread flash flooding is not anticipating, and there
is no Flash Flood Watch in effect, isolated areas where
training/redevelopment occurs could result in pockets of
extremely heavy rainfall.

31

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Not much change to the long term portion which looks to be in
good standing. Modified pops slightly on Sat afternoon to account
for altered timing on strong shortwave. Otherwise, just loaded in
new guidance for temps without any additional changes to the
extended pops.

Deese

/Issued 416 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018/

A fairly typical summertime airmass will be in place to
start the long term with plenty of moisture and instability
to allow for showers and thunderstorms across the area.
A short wave will be moving across the area Friday night and
Saturday in the NNW flow aloft to help aid the potential for
convective activity. This will favor N and W GA with the
highest pops Friday night, most so in the evening, and favor
central and portions of N GA on Saturday.

Another short wave is expected later Saturday night and Sunday
along with a weak cold front and a flare up of scattered to
numerous showers and storms is expected on Sunday.

The good news is the front moves through the area bringing
enough dry air with it to end precip chances for Monday and
Tuesday. There could be enough moisture return to central GA on
Wednesday for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Area rainfall potential Friday night through Sunday will be
considerably lower than the past several days as the convection
will be more hit and miss than widespread.

For the most part, temperatures will run above normal until the
front passes late Sunday and Sunday night, thee around normal
Monday through Wednesday.

BDL

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Lingering convection this evening has affected AHN while largely
avoiding ATL area TAF sites. There is some potential for isolated
TSRA to develop along outflow boundaries in ATL vicinity through
01-02z before potential quickly wanes. Otherwise, the possibility
for MVFR/IFR ceilings remains early Friday morning before quickly
improving by mid-morning, though confidence remains medium on this
development. TSRA chances again increase Friday afternoon,
especially in the 20-00z time frame. Winds will remain on the west
side 5-8kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on evening convection and morning
ceilings.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  89  70  89 /  90  40  40  30
Atlanta         72  87  72  88 /  10  40  40  30
Blairsville     66  83  63  84 /  30  60  50  30
Cartersville    70  87  69  88 /  20  60  50  30
Columbus        73  90  74  90 /  30  30  40  30
Gainesville     70  86  70  87 /  30  50  40  30
Macon           72  91  73  90 /  30  30  40  30
Rome            70  87  69  89 /  20  60  50  30
Peachtree City  71  88  71  89 /  10  40  40  30
Vidalia         73  91  74  90 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
958 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-020200-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup-
Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-
Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-
Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Treutlen-Stewart-Webster-
Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge-Telfair-Wheeler-
Montgomery-Toombs-
958 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the
area tonight. A few storms could be strong to severe with the
main hazards being strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall. The most likely location for any severe
storms will be north of Atlanta and Athens.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected Friday
through Sunday, most so in the afternoon and evening. A few of
these storms could be strong with gusty winds, frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

No hazardous weather is expected Monday and Tuesday.
There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms over portions
of central Georgia on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but spotters
are encouraged to submit reports of any severe weather and flooding
through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
751 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

GAZ034-037-038-045>050-059-060-010015-
Morgan GA-De Kalb GA-Putnam GA-Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Gwinnett GA-
Oglethorpe GA-Jasper GA-Greene GA-Oconee GA-Newton GA-
751 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORGAN...EASTERN DE KALB...
NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM...SOUTHERN WALTON...ROCKDALE...SOUTHERN
GWINNETT...SOUTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE...NORTHERN JASPER...GREENE...
SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE AND NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 751 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Stephens to Social Circle to near Rosebud...and
moving south at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Conyers, Covington, Eatonton, Madison, Greensboro, Monticello,
Snellville, Social Circle, Oxford, Union Point, Porterdale, Walnut
Grove, Crawford, Rutledge, Newborn, Mansfield, Bostwick, Woodville,
White Plains and Siloam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3327 8364 3337 8386 3348 8395 3349 8403
      3354 8405 3355 8407 3388 8411 3370 8374
      3388 8316 3348 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 348DEG 29KT 3379 8323 3363 8373 3377 8403

WIND...40MPH

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