Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
258 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Diurnal convection continues this afternoon, and already seeing
high rainfall amounts associated with cells that remain/back-build
over the same area. More organized convection developing north of
the GA/TN border is expected to drop into the northern zones over
the next hour or so. These storms are producing significant
lightning, small hail and heavy rainfall. Hi-Res short term models
suggest that this complex of storms will drop into the northern
metro Atlanta area, but may begin weakening/dissipating as daytime
heating shuts off. Have kept likely pops over the northern
portions of the state through early evening to capture best
chances.

Friday looks to be a near-repeat of today as outflow boundary from
TN triggers organized convection over the northern portions of the
state. Unfortunately this could once again drench areas that are
already saturated. Timing still continues to be a concern, with
the models solutions vastly different in timing into the state (on
the order of hours). Model instability is higher than today, and
at this time SPC has a Marginal Risk of severe storms over all of
north Georgia - north of a line from Carrollton to Washington.

Have generally used a guidance blend for temperatures and
dewpoints, which has been a good overall performer the last
several days. Expect a gradual warming trend to continue as cloud
scattering late in the morning/early afternoon will allow for
better insolation.

Although widespread flash flooding is not anticipating, and there
is no Flash Flood Watch in effect, isolated areas where
training/redevelopment occurs could result in pockets of
extremely heavy rainfall.

31

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Not much change to the long term portion which looks to be in
good standing. Modified pops slightly on Sat afternoon to account
for altered timing on strong shortwave. Otherwise, just loaded in
new guidance for temps without any additional changes to the
extended pops.

Deese

/Issued 416 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018/

A fairly typical summertime airmass will be in place to
start the long term with plenty of moisture and instability
to allow for showers and thunderstorms across the area.
A short wave will be moving across the area Friday night and
Saturday in the NNW flow aloft to help aid the potential for
convective activity. This will favor N and W GA with the
highest pops Friday night, most so in the evening, and favor
central and portions of N GA on Saturday.

Another short wave is expected later Saturday night and Sunday
along with a weak cold front and a flare up of scattered to
numerous showers and storms is expected on Sunday.

The good news is the front moves through the area bringing
enough dry air with it to end precip chances for Monday and
Tuesday. There could be enough moisture return to central GA on
Wednesday for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Area rainfall potential Friday night through Sunday will be
considerably lower than the past several days as the convection
will be more hit and miss than widespread.

For the most part, temperatures will run above normal until the
front passes late Sunday and Sunday night, thee around normal
Monday through Wednesday.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
MVFR to VFR conditions are prevailing across the area this
afternoon, and convection is isolated to scattered in nature over
portions of the state. Expect precip coverage to diminish quickly
after sunset. Confidence for morning ceilings is medium, but most
models are indicating SCT-BKN IFR close to sunrise, then improve
conditions quickly by 15z. Winds will be west at 7-10kt through
00z, then 5-7kt for the remainder of the period. Have included a
PROB30 for -TSRA for 22-00z Friday afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence in convective timing and morning ceilings.
High confidence in all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  89  70  89 /  30  40  40  30
Atlanta         72  87  72  88 /  30  40  40  30
Blairsville     66  83  63  84 /  30  60  50  30
Cartersville    70  87  69  88 /  30  60  50  30
Columbus        73  90  74  90 /  50  30  40  30
Gainesville     70  86  70  87 /  50  50  40  30
Macon           72  91  73  90 /  50  30  40  30
Rome            70  87  69  89 /  20  60  50  30
Peachtree City  71  88  71  89 /  30  40  40  30
Vidalia         73  91  74  90 /  40  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
445 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-011000-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup-
Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-
Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-
Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Treutlen-Stewart-Webster-
Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge-Telfair-Wheeler-
Montgomery-Toombs-
445 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected across the
area today and tonight, most so in the afternoon and evening.
A few storms could be strong to severe with the main hazards
being strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy
rainfall. The most likely location for any severe storms
will be north of Atlanta and Athens.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected Friday
through Sunday, most so in the afternoon and evening. A few of
these storms could be strong with gusty winds, frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

No hazardous weather is expected Monday and Tuesday.
There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms over portions
of central Georgia on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but spotters
are encouraged to submit reports of any severe weather and flooding
through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta

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