Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
257 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

Current radar loop shows a few lines of showers and thunderstorms
developing across southern and northern portion of our CWA this
afternoon. There are a few strong storms along these lines but
nothing has gone sever as of yet. Instability indices are very
strong for this time of year but there is very little shear for
these storm to work with. PWs are also very high ranging 1.4 to 2.0
through the short term across the state. As for the convective
activity today...we are not expecting much in the way of severe
storms as there is a weak upper level ridge that is persisting
across the region and should help to cap any storm development. A
weak upper low over the Northeastern Gulf will continue moving
slowly Northwestward and become centered over AL by Monday
afternoon. This lows movement will keep GA in a very moist pattern
with Rain chances increasing Monday and into the extended forecast.
This will also increase cloud cover across the region keeping
temperatures mainly in the 70s and lower 80s across North and
central GA through Tuesday.

01

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

No significant changes seen in the overall, large-scale trends in
the medium-range models with this cycle. Region remains in a
generally wet pattern through the extended forecast period. Despite
moderate destabilization of the atmosphere with diurnal heating each
day, lack of a strong forcing mechanism and a weak, somewhat
disorganized wind profile will keep chances for anything other than
isolated severe thunderstorms quite low. However, ample precipitable
water will keep chances for locally heavy rainfall in the picture.

All-in-all, few changes made to the previous Long Term Forecast
Grids. See previous discussion below.

20

Previous LONG TERM forecast discussion/Monday Night through
Saturday/...

Really not expecting much of a pattern change through the extended
forecast period. The long term forecast period now begins Monday
night where a broad scale view of the mid levels reveals a weak
ridge of high pressure in place over the Southeast and lower MS
Valley as a deep closed low digs into the Great Basin region of the
Western US. Despite favoring larger scale forcing for descent
underneath the SE ridge...00z guidance depicts a weak area of mid
level low pressure under the ridge located across SE AL. This
disturbance will likely allow for isolated to scattered
showers/isolated rumbles of thunder to linger across the area late
into the night...esp across southwest portions of the CWA. This low
is expected to slowly meander under the ridge over Georgia Tuesday
and through Wednesday. Although this feature should supply some
degree of additional forcing for ascent for precip...think overall
conditions will be largely diurnal with best coverage during the
afternoon and evening both Tuesday and Wednesday...with isolated
showers continuing into the overnight.

By Thursday...evidence of the weak low becomes less defined with
more of a ridge influence in the mid and upper levels. Unfortunately
the lower level regime will remain largely unchanged as persistent
high pressure over the Atlantic continues to advect a very moist
airmass into the region. This will continue the chance for afternoon
and evening thunderstorms albeit not quite as widespread.

By the end of the week and into the weekend...discrepancy still
exists in regards to the development of low pressure across the
northern Gulf. While both the 00z EC and GFS show some degree of the
remnants of Georgia's early week area of low pressure retrograding
into the Gulf and redeveloping...the EC shows a better influx of
moisture from the Caribbean. Regardless...both models continue to
depict the development of low pressure/troughing in the northern
Gulf. In addition...does not really matter whether the system
becomes tropical or not...it needs to be understood that this system
would have excellent access to deep Gulf moisture and would provide
another mechanism for moderate to heavy precip across the region.
Will need to carefully watch this system given the persistent wet
pattern leading up to its possible development.

Kovacik

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Not much has changed from the 12z TAF. SHRA/TSRA has popped up across
the area and will be affecting the TAF locations over the next few
hours. These storms should diminish after sunset and pick back up
again Mon afternoon with the daytime heating. Winds will stay out of
the SE through the period at 10kt or less. Ceilings are VFR now but
expecting some MVFR ceilings to move in over night then lift back
into the VFR range by 18z to 20z monday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  82  65  81 /  50  40  50  60
Atlanta         67  79  67  80 /  50  50  50  60
Blairsville     62  78  61  78 /  40  50  50  60
Cartersville    66  81  65  82 /  40  50  50  60
Columbus        68  81  68  83 /  40  70  50  70
Gainesville     65  80  65  79 /  40  40  50  60
Macon           67  82  68  82 /  40  50  50  70
Rome            66  81  65  83 /  30  50  50  60
Peachtree City  65  80  66  81 /  50  50  50  60
Vidalia         68  82  68  83 /  30  40  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1150 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-210930-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1150 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area this afternoon
and evening. A few storms could be strong with the main hazards
being gusty winds, occasional lightning and locally heavy rainfall.
Areas receiving persistent heavy rainfall could experience localized
flooding, especially along smaller creeks and streams as well as in
low-lying, urban and poorly drained areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected across the area
each day through Saturday. On any given day, A few storms could be
strong with the main hazards being gusty winds, frequent lightning
and heavy rainfall. The best chance for thunderstorms each day will
be during the afternoon and evening hours. Localized flooding will
also be possible where storms remain over an area for prolonged
periods.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but spotters are encouraged
to summit reports of any severe or significant weather and flooding.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
105 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018

GAZ005>007-201745-
Gilmer GA-Murray GA-Fannin GA-
105 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GILMER...EASTERN MURRAY
AND NORTHWESTERN FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 103 PM EDT...strong thunderstorms extended from around Jones Mill
to around Mountaintown, moving south at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and
           heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain will cause rising
           water on small creeks and streams as well as temporary
           street flooding, especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Ellijay, East Ellijay, Conasauga Lake, Carters, Tails Creek, Jones
Mill, Cherry Log, Mountaintown, Higdon and Colwell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3491 8436 3472 8433 3461 8448 3460 8470
      3488 8471 3499 8445 3499 8444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 004DEG 10KT 3492 8450 3472 8458

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
202 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018

GAZ006-007-014-015-201830-
Gilmer GA-Dawson GA-Lumpkin GA-Fannin GA-
202 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GILMER...
NORTHWESTERN DAWSON...WESTERN LUMPKIN AND SOUTHEASTERN FANNIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 202 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Black Gap Shelter, or
14 miles east of Ellijay...moving south at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail...heavy rain and
           frequent cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Minor flooding possible

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Amicalola Falls State Park, Springer Mountain Shelter, Len Foote Hike
Inn, Black Gap Shelter, Stover Creek Shelter, Nimblewill and Roy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3471 8420 3454 8411 3453 8434 3456 8435
      3456 8437 3455 8438 3470 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 350DEG 7KT 3462 8425

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
222 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018

GAZ083-084-096-097-201900-
Wilkinson GA-Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Twiggs GA-
222 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WILKINSON...NORTHWESTERN
LAURENS...BLECKLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
EDT...

At 222 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Chappells Mill to near Roddy...and moving
northwest at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Cochran, Danville, Montrose, Allentown, Royal, Coley Station,
Goldsboro, Rebie, Cary and Nicklesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3245 8350 3278 8319 3263 8302 3245 8317
      3237 8328
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 142DEG 9KT 3262 8307 3239 8327

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
229 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018

GAZ006>009-013>016-201900-
Gilmer GA-Dawson GA-Union GA-Towns GA-Pickens GA-White GA-Lumpkin GA-
Fannin GA-
229 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GILMER...
NORTHWESTERN DAWSON...SOUTHERN UNION...SOUTHERN TOWNS...PICKENS...
NORTHERN WHITE...LUMPKIN AND SOUTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 300
PM EDT...

At 227 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Blue Mountain Shelter to Talking Rock. These storms
were nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail...heavy rain and
           frequent cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. With storms remaining
           stationary...minor flooding is possible.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Jasper, Helen, Talking Rock, Suches, Unicoi State Park, Amicalola
Falls State Park, Sequoyah Lake, Robertstown, Blue Mountain Shelter,
Woods Hole Shelter, Low Gap Shelter, Fausett Lake, Len Foote Hike
Inn, Cartecay, Vogel State Park, Anna Ruby Falls, Stover Creek
Shelter, Turners Corner, Gaddistown and Qualatchee Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3481 8367 3480 8368 3479 8368 3477 8364
      3476 8363 3473 8362 3471 8364 3438 8451
      3438 8453 3456 8458 3489 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 334DEG 2KT 3480 8374 3451 8448

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
309 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018

GAZ074-084-201945-
Wilkinson GA-Washington GA-
309 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILKINSON AND SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 309 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Oconee to near Jeffersonville...and moving
northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Irwinton, McIntyre, Toomsboro, Oconee and Hebron.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3290 8286 3263 8326 3275 8332 3300 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 193DEG 16KT 3290 8298 3267 8327

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH