Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
225 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Seems like a near repeat of yesterday's discussion as moist,
unsettled environment persists over the area. Daytime heating as
initiated convection over central Georgia this afternoon, and expect
coverage to increase through the afternoon, particularly over far
north and eastern Georgia. Although instability is higher than
yesterday, the expectation is still for storms to remain below
severe limits. Likely to categorical pops for this afternoon will
become good chance overnight before increasing again Saturday.
Saturday's precip chances are slightly lower than the previous
forecast as coverage looks somewhat less, and still largely expect
activity to be diurnally driven.

Periods of heavy rainfall are possible, and luckily soils have been
able to dry somewhat between waves of precip.  At this time, QPF
through the short term is under 1 inch. A Flash Flood Watch is not
necessary at this time.

Temperatures will be slightly warmer Saturday than this afternoon -
particularly if the cloud and precip coverage isn't as substantial -
with highs in the mid to upper 80s over the area. Overnight lows
will be in the 60s to near 70.

31

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

Very few changes made to the extended forecast grids. Medium-range
models continue to show similar overall, large-scale, pattern
evolution with some variation in the smaller-scale features. However
the basic result is a continued period of scattered, diurnally
driven, convection. Upper pattern transitions to weak ridging over
the weekend as the current broad upper low opens up and lifts out of
the region. However the ridge is far from dominating and ample
moisture continues to stream over the region around the western edge
of the large surface high over the western Atlantic.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
SCT-BKN MVFR/VFR cigs this afternoon will continue to improve
slightly. Precip will impact the area, but latest thoughts are for
it to be less in coverage than yesterday. Cigs will degrade back
to IFR or low MVFR overnight. Winds will be SSE to SW, and
gradually all shift to the SW by the end of the period. Speeds
will be 8 kt or less. TS potential returns Saturday afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low on TEMPO -TSRA this afternoon.
Medium on cigs.
High on all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  83  66  85 /  60  50  40  50
Atlanta         67  83  69  85 /  50  40  20  50
Blairsville     61  77  61  82 /  60  50  40  50
Cartersville    65  84  66  87 /  50  50  20  50
Columbus        69  87  69  87 /  30  40  20  50
Gainesville     65  80  66  84 /  60  50  40  50
Macon           68  87  68  85 /  40  40  20  50
Rome            65  85  66  87 /  50  50  20  50
Peachtree City  66  84  66  85 /  40  40  20  50
Vidalia         69  86  69  84 /  40  50  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1150 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-190930-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1150 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area, especially
through the afternoon and early evening hours. A few storms could be
strong with the main hazards being gusty winds, occasional lightning
and locally heavy rainfall. Areas receiving persistent heavy
rainfall could experience localized flooding, especially along
smaller creeks and streams as well as in low-lying, urban and poorly
drained areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected across the area
each day through Thursday. On any given day, A few storms could be
strong with the main hazards being gusty winds, frequent lightning
and heavy rainfall. The best chance for thunderstorms each day will
be during the afternoon and evening hours. Localized flooding will
also be possible where storms remain over an area for prolonged
periods.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but spotters are encouraged
to summit reports of any severe or significant weather and flooding.

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