Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
237 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Low pressure remains centered across SE MO/SW TN/W KY this afternoon
with a secondary area of low pressure across eastern AL. A warm
front extends eastward from the secondary area of low pressure
across south central GA. The widespread...steadier rainfall...has
moved off to the east of the CWFA this afternoon. However, scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across
the outlook area.

The ongoing convection should continue during the heating of the
day, but coverage is expected to begin diminishing after sunset.
Storms have blossomed, especially where the clouds have
thinned/cleared out. The atmos remains very moist and CAPES south of
the warm front are between 1000-1500 J/Kg. The mid level lapse rates
are marginal, but 500mb analysis shows a shear axis situated right
over the Interstate 85 corridor. PWATS have decreased a little, but
still remain an inch or more across the CWFA, so locally heavy
rainfall will remain possible. A few storms could be strong and
there is some potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm. The
primary mode for any severe weather would be damaging wind gusts and
large hail. Can't rule out an isolated brief tornado. Scattered
convection is also anticipated on Tuesday.

Will be extending the current Flood Watch through midnight.

NListemaa

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Extended forecast continues to be on track. Have made adjustments
to pops and wx grids early in the period given the slight change
in timing with the late week system. Otherwise, have massaged
max/min temperatures to account for the latest model trends.
Otherwise, previous forecast discussion follows.

31

/Issued 519 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018/

Aside from some lingering slight pops across the north for Tuesday
night into Wednesday with the departing low from the short term,
the main focus will be on two shortwaves set to traverse the
region later in the week. Guidance is coming into much better
agreement with the features and have a higher amplitude wave that
nearly cuts off as it digs farther south into the Mississippi
Valley for Thursday. The translated sfc low does try to show a bit
more organization than previous runs and progged CAPE values are
enough to include slight chance thunder mention (most likely
elevated given the position of the low).

The second shortwave looks to quickly dig into the region for
Friday night/early Saturday with an almost identical evolution as
the Thursday wave. Kept pops lower with this given how far out in
the fcst, though future updates may very well raise chances if
subsequent runs maintain consensus.

Temps generally slightly below climo norms through fcst period.
Most days with upper 40s to low 50s for mins and upper 60s to low
70s for maxs.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Scattered to numerous showers will continue to impact ATL through
the early evening hours. Do think activity will diminish a bit
after sunset with a period of dry conditions for the remainder of
the overnight. Do think sct shra will develop once again tomorrow.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but think
chances are too small to mention at this time. Will handle in
further amds/tempos. A wind shift to the SW should occur between
03z and 05z tonight. A brief period of IFR cigs possible right
around 12z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          56  72  53  74 /  70  30  20   5
Atlanta         56  69  55  70 /  70  40  20  10
Blairsville     52  66  50  65 /  90  60  30  20
Cartersville    53  69  53  70 /  70  40  20  10
Columbus        55  73  56  75 /  20  30  10   5
Gainesville     55  69  54  70 /  80  40  30  10
Macon           55  74  54  76 /  50  30  10   5
Rome            53  70  53  70 /  70  40  20  20
Peachtree City  53  71  53  72 /  60  30  20   5
Vidalia         59  77  58  78 /  60  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for the following zones:
Banks...Catoosa...Dade...Dawson...Fannin...Forsyth...Gilmer...
Hall...Jackson...Lumpkin...Madison...Murray...Pickens...Towns...
Union...Walker...White...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-241845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
245 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Flooding potential will linger into this evening across portions
of north Georgia. The Flood Watch in this area has been extended
through Midnight.

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the east
today. The main threats are hail and damaging winds. A brief
tornado or two are possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Several other disturbances look to push across the area later in
the week - the first on Thursday and the second possible for
late Friday into Saturday. For now have included a slight chance
of thunderstorms with the Thursday system. There is still
uncertainty on timing and strength of these systems so please
monitor future updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated but spotters are encouraged to
report any damage or significant weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
624 PM EDT MON APR 23 2018

GAZ110>112-232300-
Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-Montgomery GA-
624 PM EDT MON APR 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHEELER...NORTHEASTERN TELFAIR
AND SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 624 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Scotland, or near
McRae...moving northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds 40 to 50 mph...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Lightning is one of nature's
           leading killers. If you can hear thunder...you are close
           enough to be struck by lightning.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
McRae, Alamo, Mount Vernon, Helena, Glenwood, Uvalda, Ailey,
Scotland, Alston, Towns, Spring Hill, Landsburg, Little Ocmulgee
State Park and Jordan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency.

LAT...LON 3194 8284 3208 8293 3229 8267 3207 8246
      3206 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 241DEG 18KT 3205 8283

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
713 PM EDT MON APR 23 2018

GAZ060-232345-
Putnam GA-
713 PM EDT MON APR 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM EDT...

At 712 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Central Georgia
Experiment Stn, or near Eatonton...moving northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Eatonton, Rock Eagle 4-H Center, Central Georgia Experiment Stn,
Harmony and Willard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3327 8344 3331 8354 3341 8354 3344 8351
      3348 8331 3347 8328 3345 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 229DEG 13KT 3337 8344

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
715 PM EDT MON APR 23 2018

GAZ086-098-111>113-240000-
Toombs GA-Wheeler GA-Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-
715 PM EDT MON APR 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TOOMBS...NORTHEASTERN
WHEELER...EMANUEL...EASTERN TREUTLEN AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL
800 PM EDT...

At 713 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Canoochee to near Mount Vernon...and moving east
at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Swainsboro, Lyons, Mount Vernon, Vidalia, Twin City, Glenwood,
Stillmore, Oak Park, Ailey, Higgston, Garfield, Santa Claus,
Summertown, Nunez, Tarrytown, Covena, Modoc, Canoochee, Zaidee and
George L Smith State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3254 8203 3256 8208 3252 8215 3248 8218
      3242 8219 3235 8225 3235 8224 3222 8221
      3211 8232 3215 8271 3281 8223 3280 8221
      3281 8218 3280 8214 3266 8208 3260 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 280DEG 26KT 3263 8221 3211 8258

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

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