Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
148 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1117 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018/

UPDATE...
Severe thunderstorm watch issued for nw GA until 300 pm. Not sure
if the storms will hold together to be severe but it's too close
a call.

BDL

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 840 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018/

UPDATE...
There is really no change to the forecast. Continuing to watch
the potential for showers and thunderstorms to move into nw GA
close to midnight or maybe slightly late, and move across the area
through midday Wednesday. Still a marginal to a slight risk for
severe storms favoring portions of n and w GA.

BDL

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 700 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Main focus for period initially is the strong to isolated severe
storm potential tonight into tomorrow morning with an amplifying
trough/strengthening jet dynamics from the west and a rather
robust attendant cold front. Some hi-res guidance has had
indications that some convection could become more outflow-driven
with a quicker propagation to the south and west early in the
morning, which could limit coverage of showers/storms farther NE.
Have not bought in on this since has been more consensus on
overall scattered development oriented more along the frontal
forcing. Shear environment is impressive and enough low level
helicity to continue an isolated tornado potential. Still thinking
greatest threat would be damaging winds. Could attain CAPE values
upwards of 1000 J/kg given the most unstable parcel, otherwise looks
to be in 400-600 range.

System should have some gradual weakening by sunrise tomorrow as
the pops become more confined to central GA (lingering isolated
storm threat, though more general in nature for into midday before
all has exited SE). Otherwise expect a blustery day with clearing
skies due to enhanced gradient winds with strong CAA. Will need to
watch wind mags flirting with advisory levels (especially in the
northern higher elevations) with future updates if confidence or
values increase any.

Wednesday night should have most areas in the mid to upper 30s
and for now it looks reasonable for the far NE mtns to hit the
freezing mark. Have therefore issued a Freeze Watch accordingly
into Thursday AM. Frost is possible but for now seems too
uncertain to include mention given some lingering winds. Something
else to watch nonetheless.

Baker

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Long term forecast largely on track. After an initial dry start,
expect two main weather systems to mark the extended period - one
Friday afternoon through Saturday, and another early Monday through
Tuesday. Minor adjustments have been made to refresh pops and wx
with the latest model trends. More significant revisions have been
made to the temperatures and dewpoints, particularly for the Friday
through Monday period, with the latest model guidance a little
slower in bringing the dry air mass into the region through the
weekend. Previous forecast discussion follows...

31

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
The long term begins in between systems. The next in a series of
short waves and associated fronts will move into the CWA Friday.
With a near zonal flow the front will stall across Georgia, most
likely across central and south Georgia. Weak waves will move along
this front through the end of the long term. This will keep chances
of showers/tstorms over the CWA beginning Friday and continuing into
early next week. Models are in good agreement with the first wave
Friday and Saturday and have gone with likely to categorical pops.
Models differ somewhat on the next short wave but they do agree on
moving it across the CWA Sunday night and into Monday night.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
A line of showers and embedded strong thunderstorms will pass thru
the TAF sites tonight and Wed morning...carrying with it a threat
for strong winds heavy rain and hail. Convection should pass thru
ATL TAF sites first between 06z-09z and similarly for AHN and
shortly thereafter for CSG and eventually MCN. Cigs will likely
drop down to at least MVFR as the line passes...tho IFR will be
possible too. After the line moves south of the TAF
sites...gradual clearing is expected through the day with SKC
conditions by late afternoon. SW winds will gust near 20kts ahead
of the line before shifting NW and gusting between 25-30kts thru
most of the day.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on ceiling trends through the morning.
High on all other forecast elements.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  36  65  43 /  60   0   0   5
Atlanta         61  38  65  47 /  50   0   0   5
Blairsville     51  30  61  40 /  40   0   0  10
Cartersville    58  34  65  46 /  40   0   0  10
Columbus        67  40  70  48 /  70   0   0   5
Gainesville     58  37  62  44 /  50   0   0   5
Macon           66  38  68  44 /  60   0   0   5
Rome            58  35  65  46 /  30   0   0  10
Peachtree City  63  35  67  44 /  60   0   0   5
Vidalia         72  43  69  47 /  60   5   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 3 AM EDT early this morning for
the following zones: Bartow...Catoosa...Chattooga...Dade...
Floyd...Gordon...Haralson...Murray...Polk...Walker...Whitfield.

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for the
following zones: Dawson...Fannin...Gilmer...Lumpkin...Towns...
Union...White.

&&

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...Kovacik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
916 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-041200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
916 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Strong to severe storms are possible across north and west central
Georgia tonight.

A strong cold front will move out of the Mississippi Valley and
into north and central Georgia late tonight. A line of showers
and thunderstorms will move into northwest Georgia around
midnight, and move through north and into central Georgia by
sunrise.

A few of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging
winds, although an isolated tornado is also possible. The main
area of concern is generally north of a line from LaGrange to
Athens, and between the hours of midnight and 6 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

The cold front will continue moving across central Georgia
Wednesday and this will keep a chance of thunderstorms across
central Georgia. A few of these storms could be strong with gusty
winds.

Freezing temperatures are possible across the northeast mountains
late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. A Freeze Watch has been
issued for 4 AM to 9 AM Thursday for northeast Georgia.

A strong storm system will move into north and central Georgia
Monday bringing scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 AM EDT WED APR 04 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE COLE CITY          34.95N  85.53W
04/04/2018                   DADE               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN THE NEW HOME AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800071

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
132 AM EDT WED APR 04 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LAFAYETTE               34.71N  85.28W
04/04/2018                   WALKER             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE DOWN AND MULTIPLE POWER LINES DOWN IN LAFAYETTE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800072

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
156 AM EDT WED APR 04 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE DALTON            34.75N  84.93W
04/04/2018                   WHITFIELD          GA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ALONG KINNETT DRIVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800073

NLIST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
156 AM EDT WED APR 4 2018

GAZ005>007-012>015-020>022-030>033-041>044-052-040645-
Dawson GA-Carroll GA-Forsyth GA-Heard GA-Murray GA-Paulding GA-
Lumpkin GA-South Fulton GA-Gilmer GA-Polk GA-North Fulton GA-
Douglas GA-Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-Gordon GA-Haralson GA-Bartow GA-
Pickens GA-Fannin GA-
156 AM EDT WED APR 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAWSON...CARROLL...NORTHWESTERN
FORSYTH...NORTHWESTERN HEARD...EASTERN MURRAY...PAULDING...WESTERN
LUMPKIN...SOUTH FULTON...GILMER...EASTERN POLK...NORTH FULTON...
DOUGLAS...COBB...CHEROKEE...EASTERN GORDON...HARALSON...BARTOW...
PICKENS AND FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM EDT...

At 156 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Tennga to Ranger to Braswell to Hollis Crossroads...
and moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds 40 to 50 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Atlanta, Marietta, Douglasville, Carrollton, Canton, Cartersville,
Dallas, Jasper, Ellijay, Blue Ridge, Buchanan, Sandy Springs,
Roswell, Alpharetta, Smyrna, Dunwoody, Milton, Kennesaw, Woodstock
and Acworth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3499 8417 3433 8415 3381 8441 3344 8496
      3346 8498 3341 8501 3327 8521 3330 8527
      3375 8534 3399 8505 3447 8475 3499 8474
TIME...MOT...LOC 0556Z 286DEG 40KT 3498 8471 3449 8472 3397 8497 3351
8562

WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
212 AM EDT WED APR 04 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ROME                    34.26N  85.19W
04/04/2018                   FLOYD              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 TREES DOWN IN ROME. ONE ALONG VAUGHN ROAD AND ANOTHER
            ALONG BLACKS BLUFF ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800074

NLIST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
239 AM EDT WED APR 4 2018

GAZ006-008-009-014>016-022-023-032>035-042>045-052>055-066-040715-
De Kalb GA-Dawson GA-Fayette GA-Coweta GA-Carroll GA-Forsyth GA-
Gwinnett GA-Troup GA-Heard GA-White GA-Lumpkin GA-South Fulton GA-
Hall GA-North Fulton GA-Union GA-Towns GA-Douglas GA-Barrow GA-
Cobb GA-Clayton GA-Fannin GA-
239 AM EDT WED APR 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DE KALB...EASTERN DAWSON...
NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...WESTERN COWETA...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL...
FORSYTH...GWINNETT...NORTHWESTERN TROUP...HEARD...WHITE...LUMPKIN...
SOUTH FULTON...HALL...NORTH FULTON...UNION...TOWNS...DOUGLAS...
NORTHWESTERN BARROW...SOUTHEASTERN COBB...NORTHWESTERN CLAYTON AND
EASTERN FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM EDT...

At 239 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Nottely Dam to Silver City to Vinings to near
Frolona...and moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds 40 to 50 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Atlanta, Gainesville, Newnan, Douglasville, Lawrenceville, Decatur,
Cumming, Dahlonega, Cleveland, Dawsonville, Franklin, Hiawassee,
Blairsville, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Smyrna,
Dunwoody and Peachtree City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3430 8368 3413 8382 3411 8380 3380 8399
      3309 8518 3319 8525 3335 8528 3384 8451
      3419 8429 3419 8426 3433 8420 3499 8420
      3499 8370
TIME...MOT...LOC 0639Z 275DEG 42KT 3495 8414 3433 8414 3384 8446 3333
8527

WIND...50MPH