Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
449 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
An upper level low will deepen as it lifts into the TN valley
tonight. the surface front will push through the forecast area
through the day tomorrow. Pre-frontal convection - isolated
thunderstorms will move into portions of west GA over the next
hour, and increase in coverage through the evening hours. The
atmosphere has destabilized with breaks in clouds over west and
central GA. Ingredients for supercells will be in place across all
of CWA with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg across the area through this
evening. Vertical wind shear quite strong with 0-6km shear
ranging from 50kts over middle GA to 75kts in the far north and
0-1km shear 20kts over middle GA to 30kts in the far north. SPC
has issued a Tornado Watch west of our forecast area, but with the
sounding profiles from the HI-RES guidance supporting supercell
structures with strong rotating updrafts between 22z and 03z,
expect watches to be issued later this evening. A second line of
storms associated with the front will move across the state from
NW to SE after midnight into tomorrow, with cells weakening as
they get into central GA around daybreak, but while severe is not
expected we could still see thunder through the early morning
hours. Do mot expect as much clearing as models are advertising,
based upon the proximity of the wrap around moisture and have held
onto clouds through the day tomorrow with some break across north
Georgia by afternoon. Guidance temperatures are close and have
stayed close to a blend through the period. Temperatures will stay
nearly steady across northwest Georgia with a warm up over east
central Georgia ahead of the cold air advection.

Atwell

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Wrap around moisture will move across north Georgia Tuesday night
into Wednesday as the upper upper low shifts into the Carolinas.
Cooler temperatures behind the cold front will bring light
showers over north Georgia, along with a rain/snow mix and snow
showers by morning over the higher elevations. Any accumulations
will be light at best. Otherwise extended forecast trends were
mostly unchanged. See previous forecast discussion below.

Atwell

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
Much colder temperatures will be advecting into the area on breezy
northwest winds by Tuesday night behind a cold front. As an upper
low passes to the north Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the
chance for light showers will linger across primarily north Georgia.
With temperatures dropping near or below freezing by Wednesday
morning in far north Georgia, the likelihood for a transition to a
rain/snow mix or light snow showers will increase. Light snow
accumulations will be possible across the higher elevations by
Wednesday morning. At this time, generally expecting only up to a
around a half inch in these higher elevations. Any light snow
accumulations would melt by midday Wednesday as temperatures warm
well above freezing. Wednesday will remain a chilly day by late
March standards with high temperatures largely in the 50s (and 40s
in far north Georgia). Sustained northwest winds around 20 mph with
higher gusts will add to the chill.

Thursday and Friday will bring moderating temperatures and will
remain primarily dry with only a slight chance of a few showers
sneaking into far north Georgia by late Friday. Rain chances appear
to begin to increase more appreciably by Saturday as upper pattern
transitions into a more zonal flow and a low pressure system moves
into the Ohio Valley, though discrepancies remain with timing and
evolution.

RW

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
IFR or near IFR cigs will hold on over all TAF sites with a slow
improvement to MVFR between 20-22Z, just ahead of convection.
Will see IFR set up after 00Z with a second round of thunderstorms
overnight between 04-11Z across all TAF sites, but mainly ATL
area. Any TSRA will be scattered. SE-S winds will become SW as
line of storms moves thru 03-07Z then become west and increase to
10-15kts with gusts to 22-25kts after 15Z Tue. Expect variable
winds with gusts with any thunderstorms.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to low confidence in CIGs.
Medium confidence in timing of convection.
Medium to high confidence in all other elements.

Atwell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          58  70  39  54 /  80  20  20   5
Atlanta         57  65  37  52 /  70  30  30   5
Blairsville     49  61  33  42 /  90  50  50  30
Cartersville    53  63  36  52 /  90  40  30   5
Columbus        61  68  40  59 /  60  20  20   0
Gainesville     54  65  36  50 /  90  30  30  10
Macon           62  73  40  60 /  60  30  10   0
Rome            53  61  35  52 /  90  40  40   5
Peachtree City  57  66  38  55 /  80  30  30   0
Vidalia         65  76  44  61 /  50  50  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Atwell
LONG TERM....Atwell
AVIATION...Atwell

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
130 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
130 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

The risk for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, will
increase across much of north and central Georgia through this
evening.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon,
especially south of I-20. Some of these storms could be strong to
severe with large hail and brief gusty winds the primary threat,
along with heavy rain.

Later this afternoon through this evening, a more organized line of
severe thunderstorms will move from Alabama into northwest and west-
central Georgia.  It is along and ahead of this line where all modes
of severe weather exist, including tornadoes, large hail potentially
greater than 2 inches, and damaging winds in excess of 70 MPH. Heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning will also occur. Expect the
potential for severe weather to be its highest between 5 PM and 2 AM
Tuesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There will be a chance of thunderstorms over mainly central Georgia
on Tuesday. The severe threat is reduced Tuesday but a few storms
could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds the
primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon through tonight.
Spotters are encouraged to submit reports of severe weather through
the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta.

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