Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

A weak short wave rotating around the upper low to the north was
bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms to north GA this
afternoon. This area of precip will shift southward toward ATL/AHN
by 00Z, however the showers will dissipate by late this evening
except for the extreme north. Scattered tstorms across central
Georgia will shift southward as well, dissipating toward sunset.

Models in good agreement in bringing the upper low and associated
cold pool aloft over Georgia by Monday. This will bring an extensive
cloud shield to the CWA Monday and Monday Night. This will also
destabilize the atmosphere bringing numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the forecast area. The thunderstorms will likely be
confined to the afternoon and evening hours. Due to the cloud
shield, max temps on Monday will be a few degrees below normal.

17

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

A deep and nearly cut-off upper level trough will influence our
weather for the middle of the week until stronger westerlies,
digging down ahead of upstream trough, absorb and push it off the
east coast. As a result, POPs will be highest Tues/Wed before dryer
air trys to work in and limit convection back to more typical
isolated-widely scattered afternoon/evening activity. Temps will be
several degrees below normal Tues/Wed due to clouds and showers
associated with the upr trough. By the end of the week as this
feature moves away, temps should rebound back to near normal levels
for late July. No major changes with the extended forecast.

DJN.83

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR for the rest of this afternoon with scattered showers and
tstorms developing across the forecast area. Convection will
dissipate this evening. Cigs will become MVFR late tonight as the
upper low moves over the forecast area. Scattered to numerous
showers and isolated tsra will develop Monday morning and continue
into the afternoon. Cigs will become VFR all areas Monday
afternoon. Winds will remain west northwest this afternoon,
becoming light/calm tonight, then light northeast Monday morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on timing of mvfr cigs late tonight.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  85  69  85 /  50  70  60  50
Atlanta         70  84  71  85 /  50  70  60  60
Blairsville     62  79  64  79 /  60  70  70  60
Cartersville    67  84  68  85 /  50  70  60  60
Columbus        72  87  72  88 /  30  60  60  50
Gainesville     67  83  69  83 /  50  70  60  50
Macon           70  88  71  88 /  30  60  60  60
Rome            68  84  68  86 /  60  70  60  60
Peachtree City  69  85  69  86 /  40  70  60  50
Vidalia         72  89  72  89 /  40  50  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...17

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-231000-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup-
Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-
Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-
Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Treutlen-Stewart-Webster-
Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge-Telfair-Wheeler-
Montgomery-Toombs-
250 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon through Tonight...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across
north and central Georgia through early this evening. Main threats
will be small hail, locally heavy rain, brief gusty winds to 35 mph
and cloud to ground lightning. Isolated strong to severe storms are
possible but widespread severe weather is not anticipated through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms can be expected Monday
through Saturday. A few storms could be strong to severe on any
day with the main hazards being strong gusty winds, frequent
lightning and minor flooding from heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

DJN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
616 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

GAZ080-091-092-222245-
Schley GA-Taylor GA-Marion GA-
616 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SCHLEY...
SOUTHWESTERN TAYLOR AND NORTHERN MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 616 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Oakland, or 9 miles
north of Buena Vista...moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rupert, Charing, Tazewell, Marion Estates, Oakland and Mauk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3247 8461 3255 8455 3254 8454 3255 8454
      3255 8453 3254 8453 3254 8452 3249 8424
      3233 8428 3233 8447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 306DEG 18KT 3245 8450

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
619 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

GAZ084-222245-
Wilkinson GA-
619 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILKINSON COUNTY
UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 619 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Irwinton...moving east
at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Irwinton, McIntyre, Toomsboro and Nicklesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3271 8296 3266 8308 3275 8323 3286 8319
      3286 8303 3285 8303 3285 8299 3284 8297
      3282 8297 3280 8295 3276 8296 3275 8294
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 288DEG 14KT 3279 8315

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
631 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

GAZ074-222300-
Washington GA-
631 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 631 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Tennille, or near
Sandersville...moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Sandersville, Davisboro, Tennille and Riddleville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3281 8260 3287 8288 3300 8287 3304 8260
      3297 8254 3294 8254 3292 8251 3291 8251
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 275DEG 13KT 3292 8281

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
633 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

GAZ106-108-222300-
Crisp GA-Wilcox GA-
633 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CRISP AND SOUTHWESTERN
WILCOX COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 633 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Wenona, or over
Cordele...moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cordele, Rochelle, Pitts, East Crisp, Pleasant View, Double Run,
Tremont, Wenona, Owensboro, Seville and Hatley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3186 8382 3202 8384 3203 8374 3203 8361
      3204 8361 3205 8352 3194 8336 3185 8342
      3185 8361 3184 8361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 275DEG 13KT 3194 8375

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
635 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

GAZ023-025-034-035-222300-
Hall GA-Jackson GA-Barrow GA-Gwinnett GA-
635 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HALL...WESTERN
JACKSON...WESTERN BARROW AND NORTHEASTERN GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 700
PM EDT...

At 635 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Buford, or 10 miles
north of Lawrenceville...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Winder, Sugar Hill, Buford, Braselton, Auburn, Flowery Branch,
Dacula, Hoschton, Carl, Rest Haven, Fort Yargo State Park, County
Line, Thompsons Mill, Harbin, Chateau Elan, Buford Dam-Lake Lanier
Parks, Aqualand Park, Russell, Chestnut Mountain and Road
Atlanta-Lanier Speedway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3415 8374 3397 8368 3392 8379 3393 8380
      3390 8384 3413 8408 3419 8404 3419 8400
      3421 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 295DEG 11KT 3410 8398

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
645 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

GAZ024-025-222315-
Banks GA-Jackson GA-
645 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BANKS AND NORTHEASTERN JACKSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 644 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Gillsville, or near
Homer...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Commerce, Homer, Lula, Maysville, Gillsville, Raoul, Apple Valley and
Banks Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3439 8338 3432 8339 3427 8334 3424 8334
      3421 8337 3420 8340 3419 8340 3415 8350
      3427 8365 3430 8362 3432 8365 3435 8365
      3437 8367 3440 8366 3442 8362 3445 8360
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 295DEG 11KT 3434 8358

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH