Freeze Watch 1, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

The short term period begins with a cold front and a broken line of
showers moving southeast through central GA, with scattered showers
in its wake. Along and ahead of the front an isolated strong
thunderstorm is possible, but severe weather is not expected. Out
ahead of the front winds are gusting in the 20-35 mph range in
central GA. Gusts should diminish later tonight. The current flash
flood watch in far northern GA and the wind advisory in central GA
remain in effect until this evening.

The cold front and showers should continue to push southeast before
clearing the area in the overnight hours. After the system clears
the area, higher pressure will start to build in causing gusty winds
in the higher terrain in the mountains later this evening and
through Friday. Current gusts are near 30-40 mph in the highest
peaks. The evening shift will monitor the potential for a wind
advisory in the higher elevations of the mountains.

Low temperatures tonight in the wake of the cold front are generally
in the 40s across the area with temps in the 30s in the mountains.
Friday will be nice and dry with high temperatures in the 50s and
60s in north GA with higher temps near 70 in portions of central
GA.

Merritt

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Canadian high pressure will be in control at the onset of the long-
term, leading to a sunny and temperate weekend. Morning low
temperatures both Saturday and Sunday will dip into the 30s
areawide with freezing temperatures possible across portions of
far north Georgia. Given recent record-breaking warmth, any
freezing lows could have some implications for
agricultural/gardening interests. Highs will warm to near normal
Saturday afternoon and slightly above normal on Sunday.

By late Monday into Tuesday, the next cold front will begin to
approach the region. Discrepancies remain regarding frontal timing
with the 12z GFS remains significantly quicker than the 12z ECMWF.
The GFS would have the front and associated precipitation affecting
the area earlier Tuesday, while the ECMWF would delay until late
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Given limited forecast instability, did
not include mention of thunder at this time.

Behind the front, below-average temperatures will settle into the
region. With decent wrap-around moisture across the northeast
Georgia mountains, some potential exists for at least a light
rain/snow mix in the higher elevations by early Wednesday morning.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
A line of showers and embedded thunder will continue to push SE
across all sites this afternoon. Lingering rain showers behind the
initial line will affect the TAF sites through the evening.
Mainly MVFR conditions will occur in and in the vicinity of the
precip before improving to VFR overnight and then becoming clear.
Winds will remain on the W side with a shift from SW to NW
expected today and remaining NW thru the period. Speed will
generally linger between 10-15kt with gusts between 20-30kts
possible. Could see a lull in the gusts overnight before picking
back up tomorrow morning. Friday will continue to be clear.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence on precip and ceiling trends through the evening
High confidence on all other elements.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          42  65  35  65 /  40   0   0   0
Atlanta         42  60  36  62 /  30   0   0   0
Blairsville     36  54  29  57 /  20   0   0   0
Cartersville    40  59  33  59 /  30   0   0   0
Columbus        46  67  39  67 /  70   0   0   0
Gainesville     40  60  34  61 /  30   0   0   0
Macon           44  68  36  66 /  80   0   0   0
Rome            40  60  34  60 /  20   0   0   0
Peachtree City  41  62  35  64 /  40   0   0   0
Vidalia         49  70  40  67 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for the following
zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Chattahoochee...
Clarke...Clayton...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...
Emanuel...Fayette...Glascock...Greene...Hancock...Harris...
Heard...Henry...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...
Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...
Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Peach...Pike...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...
Schley...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...
Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...
Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...
Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for the following
zones: Catoosa...Dade...Fannin...Gilmer...Lumpkin...Murray...
Towns...Union...Walker...White...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...Merritt
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Kovacik

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