Areal Flood Warning 6, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
941 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.UPDATE...

Trended some higher pops a bit longer in the far southeast due to
more persistent convection from colliding outflows near a stalled
boundary. Hi-res consensus indicates most development should be diminished
by midnight or shortly thereafter. Included some patchy fog
mention for the morning mainly Columbus to Macon and southward
where there was precip late today. Otherwise should be a mostly
clear and quiet night on tap. Previous discussion follows.

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 901 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018/

UPDATE...

00z Aviation update below.

Baker

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 217 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

A weak boundary will continue across central portions of GA through
the period. A slightly drier airmass will continue north of this
boundary. South of the weak boundary, higher slightly higher
moisture values will lead to a bit more cloud cover and the
potential for isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms. Normal
temps expected.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Previous forecast is on track with only minor changes made. By
Thursday morning, Low- and upper-level moisture returns ahead of a
lifting shortwave and the southerly surface winds from a Bermuda
High intrusion will wash out any lingering stationary frontal
boundary. Return of widespread elevated Pops is expected by Friday
with broad SSW flow and ahead of a another digging shortwave which
both the GFS and ECMWF agree will move through the forecast area on
Sunday. Afterward, remnant moisture will provide chance Pops
Monday onward before a a stronger low-pressure system moves into
the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. Previous discussion
follows...

Thiem

The long term period begins with a slightly drier airmass over
the state but that will be short lived as moisture begins to
increase again Wednesday night/Thursday morning. As the moisture
returns a weak surface Bermuda like ridge also builds in across
the northern gulf and southeastern states. This will push the next
main frontal system moving east out of the MS river valley
northward of the area also keeping the deepest moisture and
instability north of our CWA through the end of the work week. By
Friday afternoon/evening...whats left of the frontal boundary
will slowly move south into the state as the Bermuda ridge also
weakens. This will allow a developing shortwave to push SE out of
the Mid MS river valley and across AL/GA/SC for the weekend. This
wave will bring increased instability and deep layer moisture back
in across the region mainly Saturday through Monday. Bumped pops
up into the likely category for the same time frame and would not
be surprised to see the pops continue to go up as we get closer
to the weekend.

Temperatures through the extended will stay near average with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s and
low to mid 70s.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions for most locations while southern sites could have
MVFR VSBYs late tonight/Wed AM. Any lingering precip mainly near
MCN should diminish this evening. Could have isolated
showers/storms Wed afternoon at any of sites but chance too low
for mention. Winds mainly light on west side and close to calm
overnight then light west to SW tomorrow (could have period of
light SE for tomorrow evening near KATL).

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High on all elements.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  91  71  91 /   0  20  10  30
Atlanta         72  91  73  90 /   5  20  10  30
Blairsville     62  85  65  86 /   5  20  20  30
Cartersville    68  91  71  91 /   5  20  10  30
Columbus        73  93  74  91 /  20  20  20  40
Gainesville     69  89  71  89 /   0  20  10  30
Macon           71  93  72  91 /  30  20  20  30
Rome            69  92  71  92 /   5  20  10  30
Peachtree City  69  92  71  90 /   5  20  10  40
Vidalia         73  92  73  92 /  60  20  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa/Baker
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
211 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-151200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
211 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening over portions of central Georgia, from
LaGrange to Macon to Vidalia and southward. Some storms could be
strong with damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.
While isolated events are possible, the probability for
widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for
central Georgia on Wednesday and for the entire forecast area for
each day afterward, mainly during the afternoon and evening.
Friday and Saturday will have the highest chances for numerous
thunderstorms across the area. Widespread severe weather is not
anticipated, however, some storms could produce strong winds,
frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
619 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

GAZ104-142300-
Sumter GA-
619 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL 700
PM EDT...

At 619 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Plains to Leslie...and moving southeast at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
           in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Leslie, De Soto, Desoto, Cobb, Sumter, Maddox, Croxton Crossroads and
Huntington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3192 8438 3196 8444 3202 8444 3200 8399
      3191 8395 3192 8434 3187 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 322DEG 6KT 3198 8440 3195 8411

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
655 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

GAZ083-094>096-107-142345-
Peach GA-Houston GA-Bleckley GA-Twiggs GA-Pulaski GA-
655 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PEACH...HOUSTON...
SOUTHWESTERN BLECKLEY...SOUTHWESTERN TWIGGS AND NORTHEASTERN PULASKI
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 655 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Bonaire, or 8 miles
northeast of Perry. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Perry, Hawkinsville, Warner Robins, Centerville, Byron, Robins Air
Force Base, Sand Bed, Bullard, Houston Lake, Mobley Crossing,
Magnolia, Lakewood, Ocmulgee Public Fishing Area, Paulk, Elberta,
Pulaski State Prison, Bonaire, Kathleen and Clinchfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3226 8336 3247 8379 3268 8379 3269 8377
      3269 8369 3268 8367 3267 8363 3266 8360
      3267 8360 3267 8359 3262 8347
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 358DEG 1KT 3253 8362

WIND...40MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
838 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

GAZ108>110-150130-
Telfair GA-Wilcox GA-Dodge GA-
838 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TELFAIR...
SOUTHEASTERN WILCOX AND SOUTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
EDT...

At 837 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Browning, or 7 miles
south of Abbeville. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Abbeville, Rhine, Temperance, Browning and Antioch Church.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3181 8314 3182 8314 3182 8315 3183 8315
      3185 8318 3184 8321 3185 8342 3203 8333
      3198 8299 3181 8312
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 295DEG 3KT 3189 8328

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
908 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

GAZ097-111>113-150200-
Toombs GA-Wheeler GA-Montgomery GA-Laurens GA-
908 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TOOMBS...WHEELER...MONTGOMERY AND
SOUTHEASTERN LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

At 908 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Ponderosa to Toombs Central to Cedar Grove...and
moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Lyons, Alamo, Mount Vernon, Vidalia, Glenwood, Uvalda, Ailey,
Higgston, Santa Claus, Alston, Ohoopee, New Branch, Spring Hill,
Cedar Grove, McNatt Falls, South Thompson, English Eddy, Cedar
Crossing, Johnson Corner and Jordan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3194 8228 3195 8231 3193 8232 3196 8238
      3197 8248 3197 8250 3196 8248 3195 8249
      3196 8255 3193 8264 3210 8288 3215 8291
      3218 8287 3220 8289 3218 8294 3230 8303
      3228 8259 3229 8223 3217 8218 3191 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 298DEG 12KT 3223 8226 3206 8237 3223 8287

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
930 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

GAZ109-110-150215-
Telfair GA-Dodge GA-
930 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TELFAIR AND SOUTHEASTERN DODGE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 930 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Achord, or near
McRae...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
McRae, Helena, Lumber City, Milan, Chauncey, Jacksonville, Jay Bird
Springs, China Hill, Achord, Horse Creek Wma and Workmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3181 8310 3204 8313 3217 8300 3215 8299
      3217 8293 3214 8291 3213 8294 3211 8290
      3209 8290 3193 8266 3186 8276 3185 8279
      3184 8279 3181 8283 3182 8284 3178 8287
      3179 8298 3178 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 312DEG 14KT 3207 8300

WIND...40MPH