Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
234 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
The weak cold front continues to slowly sag southward through Central
Texas. Its current location (per a thin line of reflectivity from
KGRK) is through the Lampasas/Killeen area. Temperatures have shot
up quickly this late morning and early afternoon, perhaps partly due
to some compressional warming out ahead of the aforementioned weak
cold front. Surface dew points in the upper 60s to even low 70s in
some spots have yielded heat indices already above triple digits for
portions of the region. Thus, went ahead and issued an SPS for heat
indices peaking between 102 and 107 this mid to late afternoon.

As of 2 pm, isolated showers have popped up across the Hill Country.
Convection Allowing Models (CAMs) continue to show isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing through the afternoon
and evening hours today, primarily for the Hill Country into the
Interstate 35 corridor and points east. A few storms could produce
some gusty winds. Convection should die down by around 9 pm tonight
with the loss of daytime heating, but maintain 20 PoP tonight as
there is a slight chance for something to initiate given the stalled
surface boundary in place.

Tuesday will be pretty similar to today. The cold front stalls out
across south central Texas and then essentially washes out.
High temperatures will still be in the upper 90s to low 100s for the
majority of the region. The good news is that dew points should be a
bit lower, so heat indices should be a couple degrees cooler
tomorrow vs. today. Still keep a mention of slight chances for
showers/thunderstorms (20 percent PoP) Tuesday afternoon for areas
along and east of a Kerrville to Karnes City line.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Very little changes to the forecast over the next few days. A big
center of high pressure camps out over Texas through Friday/Saturday.
This will keep the forecast essentially status quo, with highs in
the upper 90s to low 100s for the vast majority of the region and
zero chances for rain. The upper high begins to drift eastward toward
the southeastern US by the weekend. This will lower daily high
temperatures by a degree or two and reintroduce a slight chance of
sea breeze convection across the coastal plains for Sunday and
Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78 101  77 101  76 /  30  20  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77 100  75 100  74 /  30  20  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75 100  74 100  74 /  20  20  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  97  74  99  73 /  20  20  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77 100  77 101  77 /  20  -   10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  98  75 100  75 /  30  20  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74 100  74 101  73 /  20  10  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76 100  75 101  74 /  20  20  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78 101  76 101  75 /  20  20  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  98  76  99  76 /  20  20  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77 101  77 101  76 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...Treadway
Synoptic/Grids...BMW
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
415 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-210915-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
415 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Hot and humid conditions are expected again this afternoon into
early evening. Heat index values of near 105 to 107 degrees are
expected across many areas mainly east of I-35.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
into evening. The strongest storms may produce gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across eastern areas on
Tuesday and may produce gusty winds.

Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1155 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

TXZ171>173-183-191>194-202>209-217>225-228-210000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-
Uvalde-Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-
Zavala-Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Del Rio,
San Marcos, Austin, Bastrop, Giddings, Bracketville, Uvalde,
Hondo, San Antonio, New Braunfels, Seguin, Lockhart, La Grange,
Eagle Pass, Crystal City, Pearsall, Pleasanton, Floresville,
Karnes City, Gonzales, Cuero, Halletsville, and Carrizo Springs
1155 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

...ELEVATED TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

Hot and humid conditions are expected again this afternoon
through early evening across portions of South Central Texas.
Heat indices will peak between 102 to 107 degrees by mid to late
afternoon.

Take the necessary precautions to protect yourself from the heat.
To avoid heat related illnesses it is recommended to reduce,
eliminate, or reschedule strenuous outdoor activities to the
coolest times of the day. If you must be outside, take frequent
breaks preferably in an air conditioned area and stay hydrated by
drinking plenty of water. Children, elderly, and pets should never
be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. This is
especially true during hot weather when car interiors can reach
lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. Look before you lock!

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
319 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2018

TXZ186-188-202100-
Gillespie TX-Kerr TX-
319 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL KERR AND
SOUTHWESTERN GILLESPIE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 319 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Harper, or 14 miles northwest of Kerrville, moving southwest at 10
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Harper and Mountain Home.

LAT...LON 3020 9911 3009 9933 3018 9955 3026 9951
      3029 9940 3029 9930 3032 9930 3034 9923
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 055DEG 10KT 3023 9925

HAMPSHIRE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
358 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2018

TXZ186-202145-
Kerr TX-
358 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KERR COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM CDT...

At 358 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Kerr Wildlife Management Area, or 24 miles
southeast of Junction, moving southwest at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hunt, Kerr Wildlife Management Area and Mountain Home.

LAT...LON 3015 9930 3013 9930 3014 9926 3012 9923
      2991 9969 3007 9969 3008 9976 3019 9975
      3028 9957
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 053DEG 17KT 3017 9958

HAMPSHIRE