Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
631 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD...
Isolated SHRA mostly, with a few -TSRA cells around, will continue to
drift westward as tropical moisutre continues to advect into the
area the rest of the this evening and into the overnight hours.
Coverage is expected to generally increase overnight from east of the
I-35 corridor and spread to the I-35 terminals around the 7-8Z time
frame. Before then, MVFR and eventually IFR CIGs are expected to be
the first impact, then the SHRA. This will be the story at least
through the morning hours as very little improvement is expected, if
any. As we approach the afternoon hours tomorrow, this SHRA may start
to contain lightning, thus included TSRA and CB mention at 17Z in
the KAUS and KSAT TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
The lower- and mid-level low in the Gulf continues to chug northward
this afternoon with a couple of apparent mesoscale centers. The
subtropical ridge is still quashing most convection over West Texas,
but the centroid of the moist air blob will be over south central and
southeast Texas from tonight into midday Wednesday. With
precipitable water values well over two standard deviations and near
record values in the 2.2. to 2.5 inch range, and warm cloud depth
(LCL to -10C level) near 6 km, warm-rain collision-coalescence
processes should be near 100% rainfall efficiency. In our area, the
primary area for locally heavy rain should be along and east of U.S.
281, including metro Austin and San Antonio.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The pieces of the blob should be picked up by a transiting low through
the Central Plains, in addition to pattern change forcing from the
subtropical ridge building over the area. The rain should end for
most places at sunset Wednesday, with totals ranging from two inches
or less west of U.S. 281, to 2-4 inches along the I-35 corridor, to
5-7 inches along the coastal plains, and maybe one or two spots a
little above seven inches. The rain should be spread out enough in
time through the next 48 hours to preclude flash flooding. However,
locally heavy downpours of 1-2 inches in two hours may cause some
ponding or standing water, and rivers east of the Hill Country will
generally rise over the next two days.

From Thursday into early next week, look for typical Texas summertime
weather under weak subtropical ridging, with highs in the mid to
upper 90s, lows in the mid 70s, and isolated afternoon storms on the
coastal plains, but most locations remaining dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  84  73  85  74 /  50  70  60  70  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  83  73  85  74 /  50  70  60  70  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  84  73  86  74 /  50  70  60  60  30
Burnet Muni Airport            72  83  71  85  73 /  40  60  50  50  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  94  75  97  76 /  30  30  20  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  82  72  84  73 /  50  70  50  60  30
Hondo Muni Airport             74  88  73  90  75 /  40  60  40  40  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  84  73  85  74 /  50  70  60  70  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  83  74  85  75 /  70  80  60  70  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  86  74  87  75 /  50  80  60  60  30
Stinson Muni Airport           75  86  75  87  76 /  50  70  60  60  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...05
Public Service/Data Collection...YB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
427 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-190930-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
427 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Tropical moisture will continue to move into our area today into
tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Tropical moisture lingers over our area through Thursday bringing
an extended rain event. Rainfall totals will average less than 1
inches across western areas, 1 to 3 inches along the I-35
corridor, and 3 to 5 inches east of 1-35. Isolated totals of 7
inches are possible mainly in the Coastal Plains. Localized
flooding could be possible within the higher amounts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
721 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

TXZ183-190045-
Val Verde TX-
721 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 721 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Amistad Recreation Area - Governors Landing, or 13 miles northwest of
Del Rio, moving southwest at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, small hail, and frequent cloud to ground
lightning will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake View, Amistad Village, Amistad Recreation Area - Governors
Landing, Amistad Recreation Area - Diablo East, Amistad Recreation
Area - Black Brush Point, Amistad Recreation Area - Long Point,
Cienegas Terrace, Amistad Recreation Area - Rock Quarry Campground,
Amistad Recreation Area - San Pedro Canyon, Amistad Recreation Area -
Rough Canyon, Amistad Recreation Area - Spur 406 Campground, Salem
Point, Amistad Recreation Area - 277 North Campground and Amistad
Recreation Area - 277 South Boat Ramp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Austin San Antonio.

&&

LAT...LON 2963 10102 2953 10085 2935 10096 2937 10101
      2939 10102 2944 10106 2946 10106 2947 10109
      2947 10111 2948 10113 2947 10115 2950 10117
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 035DEG 14KT 2949 10107

TB3