Alert archive / Texas / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

April 3, 2018Burnet County, Llano County, Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued this special weather statement at Apr 3, 2018, 4:37 PM CDT for Burnet County, Llano County, Texas. It was in force for 53 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 3, 2018, 4:37 PM CDT (21:37 UTC)
Expired: Apr 3, 2018, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 53 min
Issued by: NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Counties Burnet County, TX, Llano County, TX

The radar

The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 239 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1112 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -284 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 607 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 448 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 477 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Apr 3, 3:42 PM CDT, 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 3, 3:42 PM CDT, 55 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
342 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday)...

Primary focus remains on the strong to severe thunderstorm potential
for portions of the Hill Country, into the I-35 corridor, and the
Coastal Plains this afternoon and through the evening. Main hazards
will be large hail (possibly to the size of tennis to baseballs),
40-60 mph winds, and frequent lightning. Main hazard window for
strong/severe storms will be from 3pm this afternoon in the north
Hill Country through the late afternoon and early evening near Austin
and then mid to late evening for the Coastal Plains. Windy
conditions will also occur behind the front with gusts to 25-35 mph
this evening and overnight.

Mesoscale Environment: A strong cold front is analyzed along a San
Angelo to Comanche to Greater Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex. This front
is intersecting a north to south oriented dryline extending south
from Junction to Rocksprings to Del Rio. A warm sector to the south
and east of these boundaries is characterized by 2500-3000 J/kg ML
CAPE with 80-20 J/Kg CIN with 0-6km shear near 40-50 knots while mid
and upper level divergence overspreads the region from a passing
shortwave trough over the Rio Grande. Impressive and very steep
lapse rates of 8-9C/Km are analyzed to be in place over the entire
region. This will support very robust updrafts capable of producing
large hail. Latest satellite imagery indicates more agitated cumulus
across far north Williamson and Burnet ahead of the strong front two
county tiers north. Latest aircraft soundings out of Austin show a
slow erosion of the capping inversion over the past two hours. The
ample cloud cover from this morning has helped stabilize the I-35
corridor but cloud opacity has decreased over the past hour and
surface temperatures have warmed. Both the surface heating and
dynamic lift as noted through cooling mid/upper level clouds should
act to weaken the capping inversion next 1-2 hours.

The cold front will help provide the surface convergence needed to
help get over the cap as well. A broken line of strong/severe
thunderstorms is expected to develop through the afternoon and
evening. This line will shift southeast this afternoon and evening
with hazards ending north to south. All hazards will end near
midnight as the front clears towards the Texas Coast.

Much cooler and drier Wednesday morning as temperatures fall into the
mid 40s. Wind chills may actually feel like the upper 30s in some
select locations. Near-critical fire weather conditions will occur as
humidity falls into the mid teens to low 20s. Temperatures will only
reach to near 70F.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

A conditional hazard window exist Friday afternoon and evening for
strong to severe storms depending on the next frontal timing and peak
instability collocation evolution. Near to above normal temperatures
are expected late week into Friday before a cool down near normal
over the weekend behind the front. Dry conditions are expected
through the weekend with humid conditions returning late weekend
prior to another frontal passage Monday.

A fluctuation of airmass changes will occur late week and into early
next week as the dry and moist airmasses swing back and forth across
south-central Texas. Humid conditions will return Thursday and
Friday with dewpoints back into the mid to upper 60s. Strong to
severe storms look probable for north and central Texas where some
greater forcing will be in place. The strength of the capping
inversion will be key for storms this far south on Friday afternoon
and evening. If storms do not happen to form over the Hill Country
Friday then activity strength should wane prior to its arrival along
the front early Saturday morning. However, if the front move faster
then currently advertised or impulses pivot southward, this could
help promote storms farther south.

The cold front will shift through Saturday morning with rain and some
thunder associated with it. Overall totals don't look to be too
hefty currently given the progressive nature. A dry Sunday is
expected with a reinforcing cold front being a possibility on Monday
with a dry Tuesday looking probable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              47  71  51  79  65 /  30   0   0  -   20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  46  70  48  79  66 /  40   0   0  -   20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     48  70  50  79  66 /  40   0   0  -   20
Burnet Muni Airport            42  68  48  77  63 /  20   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           55  75  53  82  64 /  -    0   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        44  69  48  78  64 /  30   0   0  -   20
Hondo Muni Airport             51  74  51  81  65 /  20   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        47  70  50  79  66 /  40   0   0  -   20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   48  70  51  78  67 /  60   0   0  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       51  71  52  79  66 /  40   0   0  -   20
Stinson Muni Airport           54  70  53  79  66 /  30   0   0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...Allen
Public Service/Data Collection...YB

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 3, 2:55 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
255 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-042000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
255 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible along and east of a line
from Llano to Kerrville to Uvalde. A strong cold front will move
through this afternoon and evening that will bring the potential
for severe storms with very large hail, perhaps up to 2 inches in
diameter, and straight line winds up to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report severe weather to local law enforcement or the
National Weather Service.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 3, 11:03 AM CDT, 5 hours 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1103 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 AM     HAIL             2 SE TOW                30.86N 98.45W
04/03/2018  E0.88 INCH       LLANO              TX   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL AT J&S QUICK STOP IN TOW.

&&

BMW

Local storm report, Apr 3, 11:06 AM CDT, 5 hours 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1106 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 AM     HAIL             TOW                     30.89N 98.47W
04/03/2018  E1.00 INCH       LLANO              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL
            IN THE TOW AREA.

&&

BMW

Local storm report, Apr 3, 11:11 AM CDT, 5 hours 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1111 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 AM     HAIL             1 SSE TOW               30.87N 98.47W
04/03/2018  E1.25 INCH       LLANO              TX   PUBLIC

            PHOTO OF HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL AT TEXAS
            HILLS RV HAVEN IN TOW.

&&

BMW

Local storm report, Apr 3, 11:31 AM CDT, 5 hours 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1131 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     HAIL             15 N BURNET             30.98N 98.23W
04/03/2018  E1.50 INCH       BURNET             TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF HAILSTONES UP TO PING PONG BALLS
            AT C&W RANCH IN NORTHERN BURNET COUNTY WEST
            OF US 281.

&&

BMW

Local storm report, Apr 3, 11:58 AM CDT, 4 hours 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1158 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 AM     HAIL             14 WNW BRIGGS           30.96N 98.15W
04/03/2018  E1.50 INCH       BURNET             TX   PUBLIC

            PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROADS 206 AND 207 IN
            NORTHERN BURNET COUNTY.

&&

BMW

Special weather statement, Apr 3, 4:37 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
437 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

TXZ171-172-032230-
Llano TX-Burnet TX-
437 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

At 436 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles north of Copperas Cove to 6 miles
south of Valley Spring. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Burnet, Kingsland, Llano, Buchanan Dam, Gainesville, Granite Shoals,
Horseshoe Bay, Buchanan Lake Village, Highland Haven, Inks Lake State
Park, Watson, Bluffton, Lake Victor, Baby Head, Stolz, Joppa, Oxford,
Shady Grove, Lone Grove and Valley Spring.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Austin San Antonio.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3103 9790 3091 9783 3088 9786 3050 9852
      3050 9878 3079 9894 3092 9871 3092 9842
      3094 9841 3096 9845 3098 9844 3101 9846
      3103 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 326DEG 15KT 3128 9791 3076 9881

TB3

The office that day

Everything else NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 3, 10:00 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Burnet	45 min
Apr 3, 10:30 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Llano	45 min
Apr 3, 10:44 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Burnet, Llano	31 min
Apr 3, 11:13 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Burnet	17 min
Apr 3, 4:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Burnet	47 min
Apr 3, 6:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Blanco	43 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Texas, 2018 Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.