Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
559 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/
Moist and humid conditions continue in the boundary layer; will
reflect some concerns that patchy fog could form in the overnight
hours as model winds turning northerly this evening do not look
convincing enough to clear out the low moisture. The first several
hours should be event free with vfr skies, with only AUS seeing some
isolated storms to the distant N/NE in the next few hours.
Intersection of a pair of boundaries near BMQ may need to be
monitored for additional development. Model run-to-run trends
indicate more upstream elevated convection forming deeper inland for
daytime Sunday, and this trend also reinforces the concern that the
weak low level frontal clearing may have a more difficult time
getting established late tonight. Have some light fog and a few lifr
level clouds mentioned along I-35 in the predawn as a placeholder,
possibly to be removed in the 06z update should we see a more
definitive north wind push at the surface and boundary layer by the
finer res models.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
A Pacific cold front is pushing across the southern Edwards Plateau
and then over the Hill Country next hour. Isolated to scattered
showers and few thunderstorms are expected across the northern Hill
Country and eastern areas as the boundary pushes to the southeast.
Expect breezy conditions ahead of the front especially east of I-35
this afternoon. As the front moves to the east late this afternoon,
expect wind gusts along and behind the Pacific front to reach 20 to
25 mph.

Latest guidance and HiRes models suggest little precipitation this
evening into Sunday morning. However, the Pacific front is forecast
to slow down as it pushes to the southeast tonight and stalls across
the coastal plains. Depending where the boundary stalls, the heaviest
precipitation should fall along and east of it. With that said, we
are carrying chances of rain overnight mainly east of I-35 to account
for the uncertainty.

By Sunday morning into the afternoon, a low level disturbance is
forecast to move from eastern Mexico into the southwest of our CWA
and push to the northeast throughout the day. This feature is
expected to bring an increased chance for rain and thunderstorms
along and east of Interstate 35. Area forecast soundings suggest
elevated convection that could become strong to marginally severe in
the afternoon and produce damaging wind gusts. As the feature moves
into east Texas the chances for rain become to an end from west to
east Sunday evening.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Monday should be a nice day with highs in the 70s with mostly sunny
skies most areas and partly cloudy skies along the coastal plains.
However, rain chances return Monday night into Tuesday as a surface
trough/dry-line across west Texas pushes to the east and several
upper level disturbances move across the Southern PLains. The
activity continues into Wednesday when an upper level low pressure
system moves across the four corners region into the Southern Plains.
The western part of the local area will first get the shower and
thunderstorm activity and then areas along and east of I-35. By
Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours, a surface trough is
expected to push across the area while a cold front moves from
central Texas into the Hill Country. This last one mentioned is
forecast to dry things out for the rest of the work week with cool
morning temperatures and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Southerly flow returns as well as chances for light rain/drizzle next
weekend as a series of upper level disturbances move across the
Southern Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              50  67  44  71  52 /  10  20  10   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  50  66  43  70  52 /  10  30  10   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     51  65  43  71  52 /  10  30  -    0  20
Burnet Muni Airport            44  67  39  70  49 /   0  10   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           46  74  46  74  55 /  10   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        45  66  41  69  50 /   0  20  -    0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             50  70  44  74  54 /  10  10   0   0  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        50  65  43  70  52 /  10  30  -    0  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   53  63  46  70  54 /  30  60  20   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       52  67  46  71  54 /  10  30  -    0  30
Stinson Muni Airport           53  66  46  71  55 /  10  30  -    0  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
200 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-252000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
200 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon in
far western portions of South Central Texas, specifically Val
Verde county. A passing cold front this afternoon will produce
very low relative humidity values combined with winds of 15-20
mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
621 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

TXZ172-250100-
Burnet TX-
621 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BURNET COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM CST...

At 621 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shady Grove, or 8 miles north of Bertram. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bertram, Mahomet, Sunnylane, Joppa, Watson, Briggs and Shady Grove.

LAT...LON 3094 9784 3093 9784 3084 9790 3079 9796
      3068 9802 3080 9822 3097 9814 3097 9786
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 293DEG 4KT 3086 9811

MO