Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

198 
WWUS54 KEWX 040426
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1126 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

TXC271-323-040435-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-180504T0445Z/
Kinney TX-Maverick TX-
1126 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KINNEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL MAVERICK COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect through 12:15 am CDT 
for Eastern Kinney County and West-central Uvalde County.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2896 10038 2897 10058 2925 10061 2924 10032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 182DEG 10KT 2918 10047 

$$

MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1045 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018

.UPDATE... /SVR WATCH/
Severe threat looks to concentrate mainly west of Highway 281 through
the next 2-3 hours with rapid refresh models suggesting a more
organized complex propagating eastward toward the metro cities
between 2 and 5 am. An increasing LLJ should hasten the formation of
a squall line. MU CAPES over the Hill Country/Rio Grande Plains are
still up to 2000 J/KG late this evening and should produce a primary
hail threat through midnight with severe threats possibly shifting
to a wind threat after midnight with low-mid level shear values near
50 knots. Tornado threat should be minimal but non-zero.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions at all area airports will continue through the
evening. There are isolated thunderstorms in Mexico west southwest of
DRT and one or two of these could move across the airport between
about 01Z and 03Z and lower visibility to MVFR. All terminals will
drop to MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight. There will be low chances for
showers and thunderstorms overnight, but probability is too low to
include in the TAFs. Friday showers and thunderstorms are likely
starting around 16Z and continuing through the day. Continuous
rainfall is not likely, but timing is too uncertain to break out dry
times. Either way ceilings will be MVFR, but visibility will vary
between VFR and MVFR depending on whether it's raining.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
A stout cap remains in place across South Central Texas this
afternoon. Even with clearing in the west, we expect the cap to hold
and there only be isolated light showers this evening. An upper level
jet streak and the approach of the longwave trough axis should force
new convection to develop on the Mexican plateau and propagate
northeastward into the Rio Grande Plains around 03-06Z. Some of the
storm structures appear to be supercellular or at least higher end
pulse storms, so we're maintaining the mention of severe storms west
of U.S. 83 late tonight. The cold pools from the isolated storms
should congeal, and given the maximum diurnal influence of the LLJ,
support a non-severe MCS moving across the eastern half of the area
Friday morning. The outflow boundary from the MCS and the arrival of
the cold front will provide the foci for continuing showers and
thunderstorms through Friday afternoon and night. While the
thermodynamic profile is not favorable for torrential rain, training
of storms and the consistent forcing for a 18-24 hour period should
lead to many places receiving 1-2 inches of rain, with isolated spots
receiving up to 4 inches, especially in the eastern Hill Country.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The cold front will push south on Saturday, allowing high pressure
to start drying out the area from northwest to southeast. Midlevel
zonal flow will maintain dry and mild conditions all of next week,
with no rain expected through Mother's Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  75  60  82  59 /  50  90  70  -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  75  59  81  57 /  40  90  70  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  76  60  81  58 /  40  90  70  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            68  72  56  80  56 /  70  90  50  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  81  62  87  61 /  70  80  40  -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  73  57  81  56 /  60  90  70  -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  75  60  83  57 /  70  90  60  20   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  76  60  82  58 /  40  90  70  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  80  62  81  58 /  20  70  70  20  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  76  61  81  60 /  50  90  70  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           72  77  63  81  60 /  50  90  70  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks
Public Service/Data Collection...YB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
246 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-042000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
246 PM CDT Thu May 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible after midnight
across the Rio Grande plains. The main threats will be large hail
and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms with heavy rains are possible Friday into Friday
night mainly along and west of the I-35 corridor. Isolated strong
storms are also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are urged to report severe weather and flooding today
through Friday night.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
732 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

TXZ228-040130-
Dimmit TX-
732 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DIMMIT COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

At 732 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Las Tiendas, or 15 miles west of Encinal, moving north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Catarina, Light and Chaparral Wildlife Management Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2839 9967 2833 9939 2821 9940 2820 9949
      2820 9969
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 193DEG 11KT 2797 9960

YB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
828 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

TXZ183-040230-
Val Verde TX-
828 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 827 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles south of Del Rio, moving north at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Del Rio, Lake View, Amistad Village, Amistad Recreation Area -
Governors Landing, Amistad Recreation Area - Diablo East, Amistad
Recreation Area - Black Brush Point, Laughlin AFB, Amistad Recreation
Area - Long Point, Val Verde Park, Cienegas Terrace, Amistad
Recreation Area - Rock Quarry Campground, Amistad Recreation Area -
San Pedro Canyon, Amistad Recreation Area - 277 South Boat Ramp and
Amistad Recreation Area - 277 North Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2948 10070 2943 10070 2933 10073 2932 10075
      2929 10074 2925 10076 2924 10076 2928 10087
      2931 10089 2933 10094 2935 10095 2937 10101
      2943 10105 2952 10105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 184DEG 9KT 2911 10094

YB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
830 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

TXZ228-040230-
Dimmit TX-
830 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DIMMIT COUNTY UNTIL 930
PM CDT...

At 830 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Catarina, or 14 miles south of Big Wells, moving north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Big Wells, Brundage, Chaparral Wildlife Management Area, Catarina,
Light and Las Vegas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2864 9970 2864 9946 2863 9939 2821 9940
      2820 9976
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 191DEG 12KT 2837 9961

YB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
911 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

TXZ218-219-228-040315-
Frio TX-Dimmit TX-Zavala TX-
911 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DIMMIT...
SOUTHEASTERN ZAVALA AND SOUTHWESTERN FRIO COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM
CDT...

At 911 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Big Wells, moving north at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Big Wells, Loma Vista, Las Vegas, and Brundage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2852 9966 2890 9971 2890 9935 2864 9938
      2864 9939 2852 9940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 181DEG 16KT 2860 9956

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
942 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

TXZ217-218-228-040345-
Maverick TX-Dimmit TX-Zavala TX-
942 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAVERICK...
NORTHWESTERN DIMMIT AND SOUTHWESTERN ZAVALA COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM
CDT...

At 942 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Asherton to 13 miles south of El Indio.
Movement was northwest at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Crystal City, Carrizo Springs, El Indio, Asherton, Chula Vista, Las
Colonias, Winter Haven, Cometa, Chula Vista-River Spur, Carrizo Hill,
Rosita, and Farias Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2828 10029 2831 10028 2840 10035 2845 10034
      2848 10037 2850 10033 2851 10038 2854 10041
      2858 10040 2861 10045 2864 10045 2865 10047
      2865 10045 2883 9980 2840 9967 2824 10026
TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 155DEG 15KT 2845 9978 2832 10025

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1040 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

TXZ202-203-040430-
Uvalde TX-Kinney TX-
1040 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KINNEY AND
SOUTHWESTERN UVALDE COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1040 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Anacacho, or 11 miles east of Brackettville, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blewett, Cline, and Laguna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2914 10028 2931 10034 2946 9994 2920 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 253DEG 17KT 2925 10023