River Flood Warning 121, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

843 
WGUS84 KEWX 071502
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
902 AM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  Cibolo Creek At Selma Affecting Bexar and Guadalupe Counties
  San Antonio River Near near Falls City Affecting Karnes County
  Medina River at Somerset Affecting Bexar County

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Cibolo Creek at Sutherland Springs Affecting Karnes and Wilson Counties
  Cibolo Creek Near Falls City Affecting Karnes County
  Leon Creek At I-35 Affecting Bexar County
  San Antonio River Near Elmendorf Affecting Bexar and Wilson Counties
  San Antonio River near Floresville Affecting Karnes and Wilson Counties
  San Antonio River at Hwy 72 nr Runge Affecting Goliad and Karnes Counties
  Medina River At Hwy 281 Affecting Bexar County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain. If actual rainfall varies from forecast 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC029-187-071532-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0120.000000T0000Z-181209T0420Z/
/SELT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
902 AM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

The flood warning is cancelled for the Cibolo Creek At Selma.
* At  8:00 AM Friday the stage was 1.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 14.8 feet tomorrow 
  morning. This forecast is based on 48 hours
  of future rainfall.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Selma              14   17    1.5   Fri 08 AM  14.6   4.5   2.7   2.2   2.0


&&

LAT...LON 2970 9845 2977 9839 2950 9809 2932 9803
      2928 9810 2945 9818             

$$

TXC255-493-080902-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0121.181208T2248Z-181209T1620Z/
/SUPT2.1.ER.181208T2248Z.181209T0100Z.181209T0420Z.UU/
902 AM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

 The flood warning continues for the Cibolo Creek at Sutherland Springs.
* At  8:15 AM Friday the stage was 6.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and continue to rise 
  to near 21.6 feet by tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood stage 
  by tomorrow late evening. This forecast is based on 48 hours
  of future rainfall.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Sutherland Sprin   17   21    6.7   Fri 08 AM  13.1  17.0  10.0   7.8   7.3


&&

LAT...LON 2928 9810 2932 9803 2908 9791 2903 9798


$$

TXC255-080902-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0122.181209T1830Z-181210T1430Z/
/FCTT2.1.ER.181209T1830Z.181209T2200Z.181210T0230Z.NO/
902 AM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

 The flood warning continues for the Cibolo Creek Near Falls City.
* At  8:15 AM Friday the stage was 0.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by Sunday early afternoon and continue to 
  rise to near 17.5 feet by Sunday afternoon. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by Sunday evening. This forecast is based on 48 hours
  of future rainfall.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding of crop and pastureland damages
  irrigation pumps and any equipment near the channel. Livestock are cut off in 
  low areas.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Falls City          6   17    0.9   Fri 08 AM   6.6  14.0  11.4   5.3   3.2


&&

LAT...LON 2903 9798 2908 9791 2894 9780 2892 9790


$$

TXC029-080902-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0116.181208T1020Z-181208T2300Z/
/LKST2.1.ER.181208T1020Z.181208T1200Z.181208T1700Z.NO/
902 AM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

 The flood warning continues for the Leon Creek At I-35.
* At  8:15 AM Friday the stage was 3.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue to rise to 
  near 15.3 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage by 
  tomorrow late morning.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding reaches secondary and 
  primary roads and low bridges above Kelly USA to below I-35. Flow approaches 
  mobile homes at Camargo Park near the Missions Baseball Park.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 I-35               13   15    3.4   Fri 08 AM  15.3   6.1   3.5   2.7   2.5


&&

LAT...LON 2946 9869 2950 9867 2942 9856 2926 9847
      2926 9856 2941 9864             

$$

TXC029-493-080902-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0107.181208T1440Z-181209T1130Z/
/ELMT2.1.ER.181208T1440Z.181208T1800Z.181208T2330Z.NO/
902 AM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

 The flood warning continues for the San Antonio River Near Elmendorf.
* At  8:30 AM Friday the stage was 13.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue to rise to 
  near 36.4 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding inundates crop and pastureland 
  below San Antonio to below Floresville.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Elmendorf          33   35   13.5   Fri 08 AM  32.8  31.4  15.9  12.6  11.9


&&

LAT...LON 2919 9838 2926 9835 2924 9821 2918 9813
      2911 9820 2918 9826             

$$

TXC255-493-080902-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0108.181209T0500Z-181210T0412Z/
/FLVT2.1.ER.181209T0500Z.181209T0900Z.181209T1612Z.UU/
902 AM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

 The flood warning continues for the San Antonio River near Floresville.
* At  8:00 AM Friday the stage was 6.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast. This forecast is based on 48 hours
  of future rainfall.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by tomorrow late evening and continue to 
  rise to near 27.6 feet by Sunday morning. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by late Sunday morning.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Floresville        21   27    6.8   Fri 08 AM  18.1  27.6  13.1   8.0   7.2


&&

LAT...LON 2911 9820 2918 9813 2899 9803 2893 9811


$$

TXC255-071532-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0118.000000T0000Z-181210T1424Z/
/FACT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
902 AM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

The flood warning is cancelled for the San Antonio River Near near Falls City.
* At  8:15 AM Friday the stage was 2.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 8.6 feet late Sunday 
  morning.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 near Falls City     6   12    2.0   Fri 08 AM   2.7   7.6   6.3   4.1   2.5


&&

LAT...LON 2893 9811 2899 9803 2897 9782 2890 9772
      2883 9779 2889 9786             

$$

TXC175-255-080902-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0119.181209T0533Z-181210T1443Z/
/SRRT2.1.ER.181209T0533Z.181209T1800Z.181210T0243Z.UU/
902 AM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

 The flood warning continues for the San Antonio River at Hwy 72 nr Runge.
* At  8:15 AM Friday the stage was 12.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by tomorrow late evening and continue to 
  rise to near 29.1 feet by Sunday early afternoon. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by Sunday evening. This forecast is based on 48 hours
  of future rainfall.
* Impact...At 31.0 feet...Flooding spreads across the wide flood plain upstream 
  and downstream. No structures are threatened. Livestock and farm equipment 
  will need to removed from the floodplain.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Hwy 72 nr Runge    22   27   12.3   Fri 08 AM  15.4  28.7  23.6  15.5  13.0


&&

LAT...LON 2883 9779 2890 9772 2878 9764 2872 9772


$$

TXC029-071532-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0105.000000T0000Z-181209T1900Z/
/SMMT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
902 AM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

The flood warning is cancelled for the Medina River at Somerset.
* At  8:45 AM Friday the stage was 6.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 16.0 feet tomorrow 
  afternoon. This forecast is based on 48 hours
  of future rainfall.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Water reaches slab of Knights of Columbus business 
  office at Medina River and Pearsall Road upstream near Von Ormy.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Somerset           15   18    6.2   Fri 09 AM  12.2  10.6   6.2   5.7   5.5


&&

LAT...LON 2922 9858 2925 9866 2932 9860 2929 9858


$$

TXC029-080902-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0106.181208T1630Z-181209T1427Z/
/SAAT2.1.ER.181208T1630Z.181208T2200Z.181209T0227Z.NO/
902 AM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

 The flood warning continues for
  the Medina River At Hwy 281.
* At  8:15 AM Friday the stage was 4.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and continue to 
  rise to near 21.2 feet by tomorrow afternoon. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by tomorrow evening. This forecast is based on 48 hours
  of future rainfall.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding reaches the Farm to Market 1937
  bridge floor.

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Hwy 281            16   20    4.3   Fri 08 AM  16.2  10.2   4.4   3.7   3.6


&&

LAT...LON 2922 9857 2929 9857 2926 9835 2919 9838


$$

832 
WGUS84 KEWX 072009
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
209 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  Cibolo Creek at Sutherland Springs Affecting Karnes and Wilson Counties
  Cibolo Creek Near Falls City Affecting Karnes County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain. If actual rainfall varies from forecast 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC255-493-072039-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0121.000000T0000Z-181209T1620Z/
/SUPT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
209 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

The flood warning is cancelled for the Cibolo Creek at Sutherland Springs.
* At  1:15 PM Friday the stage was 6.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 19.9 feet tomorrow 
  evening. This forecast is based on 48 hours
  of future rainfall.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Sutherland Sprin   17   21    6.7   Fri 01 PM  11.8  16.8  10.0   7.8   7.2


&&

LAT...LON 2928 9810 2932 9803 2908 9791 2903 9798


$$

TXC255-072039-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0122.000000T0000Z-181210T1430Z/
/FCTT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
209 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

The flood warning is cancelled for the Cibolo Creek Near Falls City.
* At  1:15 PM Friday the stage was 1.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 10.7 feet late Sunday 
  morning.This forecast is based on 48 hours
  of future rainfall.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed
 Falls City          6   17    1.0   Fri 01 PM   4.9  10.1   5.2   2.5   1.8


&&

LAT...LON 2903 9798 2908 9791 2894 9780 2892 9790


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1136 AM CST Thu Dec 6 2018

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers are moving across the region. Ceilings are
generally MVFR/IFR. The exception is AUS where the ceiling rose as
a shower went across the airport. We expect that once this shower
has moved off the ceiling will drop again to MVFR. For this afternoon
showers will be off and on, but shouldn't have much affect on
category. Ceilings will drop to IFR later this afternoon at all
terminals. Later this evening, ceilings will drop further to LIFR and
rain will become more steady and heavier. We expect the rain to be
fairly steady through the overnight and morning Friday. We will leave
the category at LIFR. Ceilings may bounce around a bit, but category
is not likely to be any better than IFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CST Thu Dec 6 2018/

UPDATE...
Mid-level lapse rates have steepened between 6.5-7 C/km late this
morning as southwest flow aloft has resulted in some weak mid-level
cooling across western and central Texas. This has allowed for a few
lightning strikes across portions of Hays County this morning and
with forecast soundings showing very little change through the
afternoon hours, have added a mention of isolated thunderstorms to
the northeastern counties through the afternoon. Otherwise, expect
periods of light rain and drizzle to continue through the day with
overcast skies keeping afternoon temperatures in the mid 50s to mid
60s.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CST Thu Dec 6 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Area Doppler radars are detecting light echoes across the
International border Mexico/US and portions of the Rio Grande early
this morning. This activity is expected to continue overnight and
spread eastward and across the rest of South Central Texas later
today. Increased moisture coupled with a low level jet of 30 to 40
knots according to SPC Mesoanalysis (925MB/850MB) maps will continue
to tap into a passing mid-level short-wave to keep our area cloudy
and showery for most of today. However, rainfall accumulations should
be limited to one quarter inch or less for the period.

High temperatures are expected to reach only the upper 50s/lower 60s
across the Hill Country and mid to upper 60s along and southeast of
Interstate 35 and south of Highway 90.

Rain chances increase this evening into Friday as a cold front moves
across the area. The shower activity is expected to intensify as the
boundary approaches the Hill Country.

This is what we know as far as the timing of the cold front.
HiRes models bring the boundary across the Hill Country/southern
Edwards Plateau around 8 PM this evening. Medium range models are
around 3 hours behind with it. One thing for sure that once the front
arrives, showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the
cold front and ahead of it (warmer sector). Pwats will be on the
increase overnight/early Friday and averaging 1.5 to 1.8 inches
through the period. These are well-above the climate values for this
time of the year and suggest locally heavy rain.

As the day progresses on Friday, the cold front will continue to
slowly push to the southeast and into the coastal plains in the
afternoon. As earlier mentioned with the faster movement of the
boundary, the axis for the heavier precipitation is expected to be
southeast of the I-35 corridor and east of Interstate 37. The slower
solution brings the axis of the heavier precipitation just to the
southeast of I-35 corridor and east of Interstate 37.

A second round of showers and thunderstorms is expected late
afternoon/early evening across the Rio Grande and then to move
eastward throughout the night into Saturday morning as an potent
upper level system moves across our area. This will bring locally
heavy rain across the area especially southeast of I-35 and east of
I-37 in addition to a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Main
treats could be damaging winds and hail with stronger storms.

Storm totals rainfall forecast for the event are as follow: 1 to 3
inches along and west of Highway 83, 3 to 5 inches east of Highway 83
to Highway 281 and 4 to 6 inches points east of Highway 281.

A Flash Flood watch is in effect from Friday afternoon through noon
Saturday. Locally heavy rain is expected for the period with likely
flash flooding across area roadways, underpasses, low lying locations
and poor drainage places. Small creeks and tributaries could be
impacted as well.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
The upper level system will move across the area Friday night into
Saturday morning. Rain will come to an end from west to east during
the overnight hours and clearing the entire area Saturday morning.

The rest of the upcoming weekend looks dry with cooler temperatures.
Light freeze are expected Sunday, Monday and Tuesday mornings of next
week. Next chance for rain comes Wednesday and Thursday as couple of
frontal boundaries move across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              59  54  58  47  53 /  60  90 100 100  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  61  54  58  48  55 /  60  90 100 100  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     63  56  59  49  55 /  60  80 100 100  20
Burnet Muni Airport            57  49  52  43  49 /  60  90 100 100  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           62  56  60  46  58 /  20  60  90  60  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        58  51  54  45  51 /  60  90 100 100  30
Hondo Muni Airport             64  58  63  48  59 /  40  70  90  90  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        62  55  60  48  55 /  60  80 100 100  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   65  59  65  51  56 /  60  60 100 100  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       63  57  61  49  56 /  50  80  90 100  20
Stinson Muni Airport           65  59  63  51  59 /  50  70  90 100  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning
for Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-
Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Lavaca-Lee-
Medina-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

Aviation...05
Short-Term/Long-Term...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...YB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
402 AM CST Thu Dec 6 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-071015-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
402 AM CST Thu Dec 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A cold front and potent upper level disturbance will bring widespread
showers and a chance of thunderstorms to the area Thursday night
through early Saturday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible, potentially leading to flooding. Between 3 and 5 inches of
rainfall are forecast over the eastern Hill Country and along the
I-35 corridor, and between 4 and 6 inches with locally higher
amounts east of I-35 and I-37. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued
for these areas, in effect from Friday afternoon through Saturday
morning. Flooding of creeks, smaller tributaries, low water
crossings, and urban areas that are normally subject to flooding
will be possible.

In addition, there is a marginal risk some storms across far
southeastern areas could become strong to severe Friday afternoon
and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall measurements.