River Flood Warning 12, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

686 
WGUS84 KEWX 121929
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
229 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  Nueces River At Laguna Affecting Uvalde County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.weather.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC463-121959-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-180813T0429Z/
/UVAT2.2.ER.180812T1217Z.180812T1315Z.180812T1444Z.NO/
229 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Nueces River At Laguna.
* At  1:30 PM Sunday the stage was 5.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 5.0 feet by tomorrow morning.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Laguna              7   10    5.8   Sun  1 PM   5.0   3.3   3.3   3.3   3.3


&&

LAT...LON 2944 10003 2945 9995 2928 9990 2914 9985
      2913 9994 2926 9998            

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
638 AM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.AVIATION...
Ceilings have set in across South Central Texas with DRT being a mix
of VFR/MVFR, AUS holding at MVFR, and the San Antonio terminals
(SAT/SSF) currently at IFR. Improvement will be slow through them
morning with SAT/SSF becoming MVFR by 15z and cigs at all terminals
becoming VFR by mid-day around 18z. Winds will continue to be out of
the southeast today across the area about 10 knots.

AUS and DRT have already seen scattered showers this morning moving
within the vicinity of the terminals while SAT remains dry. Coverage
of showers and thunderstorm activity should increase through the day.
Thunderstorms will also be possible during the afternoon hours
prompting the change from VCSH to VCTS within the TAFs. Precipitation
could last through the afternoon into the overnight hours before
shifting westward late tonight into Monday morning. At this point
have precipitation ending that I-35 terminals around 08z tonight with
the return of MVFR cigs due to the plentiful moisture still over the
area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a low over New Mexico with
weak flow over Texas. A weak pressure gradient at the surface had
winds light and variable. There were two frontal boundaries stalled
across the region. One was across our CWA from northeast to southwest
and the other was to the north of us. The upper low will drift slowly
toward the northeast through this period. PW values from 00Z
soundings were 1.85 inches at DRT and 2.05 inches at CRP. PW is
forecast to remain near or above 2 inches over most of our CWA today.
Convection is likely today with the upper low and stalled surface
boundaries. The best chances for precipitation will be west of a line
from Burnet to Hondo to Carrizo Springs. With the high PW, locally
heavy rain is possible and a few places could see minor flooding
especially places that have had rain over the last couple of days.
Rainfall totals will be one to three inches with isolated spots of
five inches. As the upper low moves away Monday, PW will decrease
across the area. Rain chances will decrease from the southeast. The
area of likely POPs will be confined to the western Edwards Plateau
with only chance and slight chance south and east of there.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
The upper low will open into a wave and accelerate to the northeast
starting Monday night. This will continue a decrease in our rain
chances. There will only be slight and low end chances POPs Monday
night over the northern Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. The
decreased PW will mean no heavy rain during this period. By Tuesday
the subtropical ridge will begin building back into Texas from the
Gulf bringing dry weather back to the region. The ridge will become
stronger through the rest of the week suppressing convection.
Temperatures will also warm through the week under sunny skies and
subsidence.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              90  75  94  76  96 /  60  40  20  -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  75  94  75  96 /  60  40  20  -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     90  75  94  75  95 /  60  50  20  -   10
Burnet Muni Airport            85  73  90  73  93 /  60  60  30  10  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           85  73  89  76  94 /  80  80  60  30  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  74  92  75  96 /  60  50  30  -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             90  74  95  75  97 /  70  60  30  10  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  75  93  75  96 /  60  40  20  -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  76  95  75  97 /  50  20  10  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       89  76  94  76  96 /  60  60  20  -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           91  77  95  76  96 /  60  50  20  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...Treadway
Synoptic/Grids...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
414 AM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-130915-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
414 AM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Locally heavy rain is possible today through tonight across the
Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Rio Grande Plains.
Rainfall totals of one to three inches are expected with isolated
higher amounts possible. Pockets of localized flooding are
possible, especially across areas that have seen rainfall Friday
and Saturday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible on Monday across the northern
Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau. An additional half inch of
rain is possible with precipitation on Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected Tuesday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
617 AM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

TXZ171>173-183>192-202>206-217-218-122100-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Kinney-Uvalde-Medina-Bexar-
Comal-Maverick-Zavala-
Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Del Rio,
Rocksprings, Leakey, Kerrville, Bandera, Fredericksburg, Boerne,
Blanco, San Marcos, Austin, Bracketville, Uvalde, Hondo,
San Antonio, New Braunfels, Eagle Pass, and Crystal City
617 AM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...

Isolated flash flooding is possible today due to heavy rainfall.
An upper level low will interact with a surface boundary to
generate showers and thunderstorms today. Some of these storms
will produce heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals will be one to three
inches with a few places getting up to five inches. This rain
could lead to flash flooding. Places that have received rain over
the last few days will be more prone to flooding.