Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

791 
WGUS74 KEWX 220614
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
114 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2018

TXC019-220830-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180922T0830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bandera TX-
114 AM CDT SAT SEP 22 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM CDT FOR
CENTRAL BANDERA COUNTY...

At 112 AM CDT, local law enforcement reported flash flooding is 
occurring along some low spots of Highway 16 and Highway 173. 
Doppler radar estimates between 2 and 4 inches of rain has fallen in 
some spots. Flash flooding is already occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Medina, Bandera, Pipe Creek, Bandera Falls, Hill Country State
Natural Area, Lakehills, Kronkosky State Natural Area and Lake Medina
Shores.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 2976 9888 2962 9896 2963 9919 2972 9931
      2985 9928 2985 9907

$$

RUNYEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
938 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight as a cold
front moves into our CWA. The extent of the convection has been less
than we previously forecast and we have lowered the POPs over the
northern and western parts of the area. The front is currently
approaching Val Verde County from the northwest. It should continue
to move to the southeast through the night and produce showers and
thunderstorms. The 00Z sounding from the DRT showed 1.92" PW, so
there is still excessive moisture in the atmosphere. Locally heavy
rain is possible and some this could lead to flash flooding. The
Flash Flood Watch will continue into Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018/

AVIATION...
Timing of convection will be tough the next 24 hours. Until frontal
convection develops closer to the predawn hours, VCSH will be listed
in many of the time periods as a very moist atmosphere will allow
for some pop up convection after the sun goes down and the low level
jet strengthens. Cluster of storms out by DRT has weakened with
several outflows in that region. Another cluster of storms to the
east of AUS is pushing an outflow westward and may be a trigger for
later convection this evening. Will keep the NW wind out in DRT for
the duration of the TAF forecast...I-35 sites getting the wind shift
likely late morning. Prior to that, have a prevailing group of
showers predawn through late morning at AUS/SAT/SSF. No mention of TS
right now, but later shifts will likely have to add in for some
smaller time period. Cloud decks to should lower to MVFR all areas
after midnight...likely sooner at SAT/SSF. Not out of the question
that we could touch IFR before convection hits in the early morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday)...
Late afternoon surface observations show a cold front located across
the lower Trans Pecos region of west Texas, with plenty of moist,
southerly flow in place across south central Texas. The 21/12Z upper
air observations also show very high moisture in place with
precipitable water values around 2.2" at both CRP and DRT.

We are beginning to see some clearing as of late this afternoon
across portions of Val Verde county. As the above mentioned cold
front moves southward, we expect a line of showers and storms to
develop across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains
late this afternoon and evening. This line of convection is then
expected to move eastward through the remainder of this evening into
the overnight hours. Given good agreement among the hi-res models in
showing a line of convection moving southward overnight, we will
issue a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the Rio Grande plains,
southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. This will include counties
along and north of a Del Rio to Hondo to Burnet line. We contemplated
adding Maverick county into the watch, as the models do show a weak
signal for some heavier amounts this far south along the Rio Grande.
However, our confidence is a little low as of now and we will leave
Maverick county out of the Watch. With deep moisture, efficient
precipitation producing processes (tall, skinny CAPEs) and possible
training of cells along the front and wet ground, some flash flooding
is certainly possible. For now, the watch area will not cover the
I-35 corridor. However, we still can't rule out some pockets of heavy
rainfall late tonight into Saturday morning along the I-35 corridor.
We will continue to monitor radar trends and model data and adjust
the Flash Flood Watch as necessary.

For late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, the cold front
should slide east and focus the better rain chances into areas east
of the I-35 corridor. Deep moisture will remain in place and with
frontal lift, we will continue to show a very good chance for
rainfall. On Sunday, the coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor will
continue to be favored for additional rainfall, with lesser chances
westward across the I-35 corridor and Hill Country. As for expected
rainfall amounts, the models have trended a little lower along the
I-35 corridor and a little higher across the southern Edwards
Plateau. For this event (tonight through Sunday), we will forecast
widespread 1-3 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 5 to 6 inches.
The focus for the higher totals is expected to remain in the Flash
Flood Watch Area.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
For Sunday night, the better rain chances will be located across the
coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor. Farther west, it appears
some drier air moving in from the west will greatly limit rainfall
chances. On Monday, the cold front will weaken as return southerly
flow spreads back across all of south central Texas. Rain chances
will again be favored across the coastal plains and Highway 77
corridor where deeper moisture will be found.

For the middle portion of the upcoming work week, a broad upper
trough will linger over the central and southern U.S. plains. A cold
front tries to make some southward progress into central Texas on
Wednesday, but may very well slow down and not move through or stall
over the region. Given a potential slow-moving or stalled front, the
weak upper trough and plenty of moisture, we will keep rain chances
in the forecast through the middle and later portion of the upcoming
work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  79  69  84  71 /  70  80  30  30  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  80  69  84  70 /  60  80  40  30  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  81  69  85  70 /  60  80  30  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            71  75  66  80  68 /  80  50  20  30  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  80  68  84  68 /  80  30  10  10  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  79  68  82  69 /  70  80  40  30  20
Hondo Muni Airport             74  82  68  83  69 /  70  80  20  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  81  68  85  70 /  60  70  40  20  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  87  72  86  72 /  40  80  60  40  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  81  68  84  71 /  70  90  30  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77  82  70  85  72 /  60  90  30  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for Bandera-Blanco-
Burnet-Edwards-Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Medina-Real-
Uvalde-Val Verde.

&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...09
Synoptic/Grids...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
441 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-221000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
441 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
today. More numerous showers and storms are expect to develop
tonight across portions of the Hill Country and Rio Grande.
Pockets of locally heavy rainfall tonight across this region
could lead to flooding issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The threat for numerous showers and storms will shift eastward
on Saturday. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall could lead to minor
flooding issues across the southern and eastern Hill Country, and
along and east of the I-35 corridor on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

While spotter activation is not anticipated, any reports of heavy
rainfall or flooding are appreciated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
704 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2018

TXZ194-209-220045-
Fayette TX-Lee TX-
704 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEE AND NORTHEASTERN
FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 704 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Round Top, or 9 miles southeast of Giddings, moving
north at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Giddings, Round Top, Carmine, Winedale, Ledbetter, Nechanitz and
Waldeck.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Austin San Antonio.

&&

LAT...LON 3000 9681 3022 9694 3031 9674 3025 9671
      3024 9674 3020 9674 3016 9679 3014 9676
      3015 9671 3017 9669 3015 9668 3015 9666
      3009 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 165DEG 9KT 3010 9681

YURA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
939 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2018

TXZ194-220330-
Lee TX-
939 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY UNTIL
1030 PM CDT...

At 938 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Dime Box, or 12 miles east of Lexington, moving north at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Some
small hail is also possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dime Box, Lake Somerville State Park & Trailway, Old Dime Box and
Loebau.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 9669 3025 9689 3049 9693 3049 9690
      3048 9691 3046 9690 3046 9688 3043 9687
      3043 9685 3039 9679 3032 9674 3032 9669
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 194DEG 8KT 3035 9681

YURA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1124 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2018

TXZ173-220515-
Williamson TX-
1124 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY
UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1124 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Coupland, or 7 miles north of Elgin, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Taylor, Thrall, Coupland, Beyarsville, Rices Crossing and Noack.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3046 9716 3040 9733 3042 9736 3042 9738
      3044 9740 3044 9742 3046 9744 3046 9746
      3048 9750 3052 9751 3061 9722
TIME...MOT...LOC 0424Z 258DEG 9KT 3045 9741

RUNYEN