Special Weather Statement, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
305 PM MDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
As a persistent ridge of high pressure aloft persists over east
Texas and the Gulf Coast, a moist subtropical plume over our
area, particularly over Arizona continues to bring moisture into
our area. Some heavy rain is likely today and tonight, especially
out toward the Arizona border. This pattern will continue
Saturday. The upper high will start to reform with a ridge axis
across northern Mexico Sunday and Monday. This will set up drier
west flow aloft which will gradually remove much of our moisture
out of the area to the east. Drying will gradually start Sunday
and by Tuesday our weather pattern will become mostly dry, with a
few mountain thunderstorms possible. High temperatures will climb
back to well above normal to the mid and upper nineties by mid
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest forecast models suggest around two more days of our ongoing
monsoonal type weather before some drying out takes place. The
persistent upper high over east Texas will slowly drift over the
lower Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon. This will allow sub-
tropical moisture to persist over much of the area into at least
Saturday. Again the deepest of the plume as nicely depicted by the
water vapor sim will remain west of the Rio Grande Valley. PWs
out west are around 1.4 inches while in the east they are closer
to 1.2 inches. Forecast Models (and WV SIM) indicate a potential
MCV feature, possibly a left over MCV just south southwest of the
NM Bootheel which may well be a factor tonight and Saturday over
eastern Arizona and far western New Mexico (Grant County). With
the high moisture out west, this feature should enhance
thunderstorms the rest of this afternoon into tonight. A Flash
Flood Watch is en effect for the western zones until 6 AM
Saturday. Also of note, since much of the Black Range/Gila area
received heavy rain yesterday, it will may not take much
additional rain today to cause flooding. Some heavy rain possible
again Saturday though the trend over all is slowly on its way down
intensity and areal coverage wise as we head into next week.

For the first part of next week increased westerly flow aloft and
int he lower levels will begin to push the monsoonal moisture
eastward out of our area as the upper high builds west across
northern Mexico. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will still be
possible Sunday as an upper trough moves to our east. Drier air
will be even more pronounced on  Monday, as PWs mostly drop to
one inch or less and dewpoints fall into the upper 40s to 50.
Despite slight warming aloft, airmass remains somewhat unstable
enough for low POPs in for the Sacramento Mtns. By Tuesday and
beyond, the upper ridge over northern Mexico will move more north
and build center over the CWA. This should further dry and
stabilize the area, with the exception of the Sacramento Mtns.
High temperatures should warm back up to well above normal, and we
may well climb into the upper 90s (100s maybe) Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 25/00Z-26/00Z... P6SM FEW-SCT060-080 SCT120-150
SCT-BKN200-250 through much of the period. Expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms east of divide with 1-3SM TSRA BKN-
OVC030-040 and scattered to numerous west of divide, with best
chances before 06Z and again after 18Z. Winds west to southwest at
5-15KTS and becoming south to southwest after 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Deep monsoonal moisture will remain over the area through the
weekend with scattered to numerous storms western zones and isolated
to scattered east.  Some of these storms will be capable of
producing locally heavy rain and flooding. Relative humidities
during this period will remain above 25 percent through the weekend.
Starting early next week, drier air will start to move in as
westerly flow develops over the area. There should be enough low
level moisture remaining around area to keep humidities at or above
20 percent. Winds will remain below 15 mph except near storms
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 70  92  71  93 /  30  20  30   0
Sierra Blanca           66  92  67  93 /  30  10  20   0
Las Cruces              63  90  66  91 /  30  20  30   0
Alamogordo              64  91  68  91 /  40  30  40  20
Cloudcroft              51  67  49  70 /  40  50  40  30
Truth or Consequences   64  89  65  89 /  40  30  40  20
Silver City             58  81  57  83 /  50  50  40  30
Deming                  62  90  64  91 /  40  30  30   0
Lordsburg               62  88  64  89 /  50  40  40  20
West El Paso Metro      69  91  70  92 /  30  10  30   0
Dell City               66  94  68  95 /  30  20  20   0
Fort Hancock            68  94  70  95 /  30  10  20   0
Loma Linda              65  89  65  90 /  30  20  30   0
Fabens                  67  92  69  94 /  30  10  30   0
Santa Teresa            68  91  68  92 /  30  10  30   0
White Sands HQ          65  91  68  92 /  30  20  40   0
Jornada Range           63  91  65  91 /  40  20  40   0
Hatch                   62  91  65  92 /  40  30  40   0
Columbus                65  90  66  92 /  40  20  30   0
Orogrande               67  92  68  91 /  30  20  30   0
Mayhill                 56  78  53  79 /  30  40  40  30
Mescalero               55  78  54  79 /  40  40  40  30
Timberon                54  77  54  78 /  30  40  40  30
Winston                 50  81  54  83 /  50  60  40  30
Hillsboro               59  88  60  88 /  40  50  40  30
Spaceport               61  89  64  91 /  40  20  40  10
Lake Roberts            49  81  52  82 /  60  60  40  30
Hurley                  60  84  58  85 /  50  50  40  20
Cliff                   56  85  57  86 /  60  50  40  30
Mule Creek              57  84  58  85 /  60  50  40  30
Faywood                 59  85  60  86 /  40  40  40  20
Animas                  63  88  64  89 /  60  40  40  30
Hachita                 61  88  63  89 /  40  30  40   0
Antelope Wells          60  86  63  87 /  50  40  40  30
Cloverdale              59  83  59  85 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ401>406.

TX...None.
&&

20/26 NOVLAN//GRZYWACZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1148 AM MDT Fri Aug 24 2018

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-251800-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1148 AM MDT Fri Aug 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight:
From noon Friday until 6 AM Saturday, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in
effect. There is an elevated risk of FLASH FLOODING until 6 AM
Saturday for Hidalgo and Grant counties and the Black Range and
foothills in Sierra County. One to two or more inches of rain is
possible which could lead to flash flooding in low lying drainage
areas, low water crossings and areas downstream from previous fire
burn scars. Scattered thunderstorms are likely again today and a
few may produce heavy rain with flooding, hail, wind gusts over 50
mph, and dangerous lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday through
Friday
Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms with a few still possibly
strong with heavy rain and flooding, hail, and strong outflow
winds along with dangerous lightning. Overall storm activity
should gradually decrease in coverage and intensity later Sunday
into the week especially by Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are asked to report any significant weather
especially in regards to heavy rain and flooding to local law
enforcement and the NWS via phone or twitter using @NWSELPASO.

NOVLAN