Special Weather Statement, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
344 AM MDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist unstable air will remain over southern New Mexico and west
Texas today and Saturday resulting in chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the region. Locally heavy rains may occur
with several storms. High pressure aloft will bring seasonably
warm mostly dry weather Sunday through Tuesday with a few showers
and thunderstorms possible mainly around the higher mountains.
Thunderstorm coverage will increase Wednesday and Thursday as more
moist unstable air flows back into the Borderland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rather moist and unstable air will remain over southern New mexico
and west Texas the next 2 days as surface dewpoints above 50 F
and strong surface heating with above normal afternoon
temperatures support afternoon MUCAPE's around 500 to 1000 J/kg
and precipitable water amounts mostly from 1.1 to 1.3 inches.
Upper ridge axis will extend on an east to west axis across
southern New Mexico with models indicating more weak embedded
short waves moving across the CWA from the northwest. Weak surface
trough extending through the area will also induce weak low level
convergence. These elements plus diurnal warming and areas of
upslope flow will initiate afternoon convection today and Saturday
with outflow boundaries sustaining activity into the evening.
Abundant moisture and slow storm movement will enhance risk of
locally heavy rains with flash flooding possible over a few
locations.

Upper high center will become located over central New Mexico by
Sunday afternoon with circulation around it advecting warmer
drier more stable continental air aloft from the northeast. Thus
by Monday morning the precipitable water falls below an inch
across the CWA. This drying trend plus large scale subsidence
aloft should bring seasonably warm mostly dry weather Sunday
through Tuesday with any convection mainly confined to high
mountain areas.

Upper high center reforms to the northwest around southern Nevada
by Wednesday afternoon allowing for weak short waves to again
enter the CWA from the north. Low level easterly winds should
meanwhile push low level moisture into the region with
precipitable water rising above an inch and MUCAPE's increasing
back to around 500 to 1000 J/kg. These trends should bring some
increase in convection Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 03/12z-04/12z.
A few areas of MVFR or IFR ceilings and visibility in showers and
thunderstorms mainly between 20z and 02z. A few storms may produce
wind gusts to 50 kt. Otherwise VFR conditions with skies SCT-
BKN060-100 and surface winds around 5-15 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist unstable air will remain over southern New Mexico and west
Texas today and Saturday resulting in chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the region. Locally heavy rains may occur
with several storms. High pressure aloft will bring seasonably
warm mostly dry weather Sunday through Tuesday with a few showers
and thunderstorms possible mainly around the higher mountains.
Thunderstorm coverage will increase Wednesday and Thursday as more
moist unstable air flows back into the Borderland.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 98  75  98  76 /  10  50  10  20
Sierra Blanca           96  71  94  70 /  20  40  10  20
Las Cruces              95  70  95  71 /  20  50  10  20
Alamogordo              96  70  95  71 /  10  50  20  20
Cloudcroft              74  55  74  56 /  40  40  30  30
Truth or Consequences   93  69  95  72 /  30  50  10  20
Silver City             87  64  88  64 /  30  50  30  30
Deming                  94  69  96  70 /  20  50  20  20
Lordsburg               93  69  95  71 /  20  40  20  20
West El Paso Metro      98  75  97  75 /  10  50  10  20
Dell City               98  72  97  71 /  20  40  20  20
Fort Hancock            99  74  97  73 /  20  40  10  20
Loma Linda              93  69  92  69 /  20  50  10  20
Fabens                  98  73  97  72 /  10  50  10  20
Santa Teresa            97  73  96  74 /  20  50  10  20
White Sands HQ          95  72  96  73 /  20  50  10  20
Jornada Range           95  69  96  71 /  20  50  10  20
Hatch                   95  70  97  71 /  20  50  10  20
Columbus                95  71  96  72 /  20  50  20  20
Orogrande               97  71  96  73 /  10  50  10  20
Mayhill                 82  59  82  60 /  40  40  30  30
Mescalero               82  60  83  61 /  40  40  30  30
Timberon                82  59  81  60 /  40  40  30  30
Winston                 85  59  88  62 /  40  50  30  30
Hillsboro               91  65  93  67 /  40  50  20  20
Spaceport               94  69  96  70 /  20  50  10  20
Lake Roberts            85  58  87  60 /  40  50  30  30
Hurley                  89  65  90  65 /  30  50  20  20
Cliff                   92  65  94  66 /  40  40  20  20
Mule Creek              89  66  92  67 /  40  40  20  20
Faywood                 89  66  91  68 /  30  50  20  20
Animas                  93  69  95  71 /  40  50  30  30
Hachita                 93  69  96  71 /  30  50  20  20
Antelope Wells          91  68  94  68 /  40  50  40  30
Cloverdale              87  65  90  66 /  40  50  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

05 Rogash

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1126 AM MDT Fri Aug 3 2018

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-041730-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1126 AM MDT Fri Aug 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and tonight. The best chances for rain will be between 6
PM and Midnight. A storms will be slow moving and capable of
producing heavy rain in a short amount of time. Rainfall amounts
of 0.50 to 1.00 will be possible with isolated 2.00 rains
possible. This heavy rain could lead to flooding of low water
crossings or other flood prone locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
We will see lower rain chances for Saturday through Tuesday, but
then moisture and rain chance increase for the middle and end of
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
If spotters observe significant weather they should report it to
local law enforcement and to the NWS office via our spotter number
or via Twitter using our username @NWSElPaso

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
203 PM MDT FRI AUG 3 2018

NMZ405-406-032045-
Uplands of the Bootheel NM-Lowlands of the Bootheel NM-
203 PM MDT FRI AUG 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MDT...

At 201 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Antelope Wells, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Antelope Wells, Alamo Hueco and Playas Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3158 10861 3142 10821 3141 10821 3133 10826
      3133 10858 3142 10872
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 300DEG 17KT 3147 10860

GRZYWACZ