Special Weather Statement, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
321 PM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
We will continue to see a slight chance for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms through the first of next week. Best chances for
rain will be in area mountains and for locations west of the
Continental Divide. Our temperatures through the weekend will be 5
to 7 degrees above average, with many lowland locations close to
100 each day. We will see slightly lower rain chances for the
start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tricky forecast over the next 5 days. We have two opposing forces
at work. At the surface we have decent moisture especially west
of the Rio Grande, but aloft we have a persistent ridge that will
be meandering back and fourth across the southwest U.S. The upper
level ridge is currently centered over Arizona and we are on the
eastside of the ridge. Drier air was trying to slip in from the
east, so locations east of the Rio Grande will be hard pressed to
see thunderstorms this evening. For Thursday the ridge drifts a
little further east, but at the same time we gain a little
moisture in the lower part of the atmosphere. Usually the upper
level ridge gives us dry and hot weather, but in this case the
heat will be able to over come the negative effects of the upper
level ridge and give us scattered thunderstorms as it uses the
low level moisture for fuel. For Friday the ridge drifts back to
the west which will lower our high temperatures a few degrees,
but will also help give us less suppression from the upper ridge
so we will again see scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. For the weekend the upper level ridge makes a fast
dash to northern New Mexico. In this position the upper level
ridge will begin to pull in drier and more stable air so that by
Sunday evening most locations east of the Rio Grande will again be
hard pressed for thunderstorms. For the first of next week, the
GFS drifts the ridge over the Great Basin well to our northwest
while the ECMWF drifts the upper level ridge only over to Arizona.
The GFS position allows the moisture and rain to return, while
the ECMWF position keeps things kind of suppressed. For now I'll
split the difference and keep a slight chance of rain in the
forecast for everybody on Tuesday. With the upper level ridge
lurking so near we will see very warm temperatures. Many lowland
locations will flirt with the triple digit mark through the coming
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 02/00Z-03/00Z...
High pressure aloft over AZ and some residual low/mid level
moisture will allow for isold to sct tstms. Activity more intense
and numerous northern half of CWA Wed night. General sky
conditions FEW- SCT060 SCT-BKN 100-140 AND 200-250. Fm 00Z-06Z and
21Z-00Z isold to sct areas VRB30G40Kt 3SM +TSRAGS BKN040. General
winds SSE8G15KT until 15Z then SSW 7-12KT. Gnrl tstm movmt to SW
at 10-15KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure aloft will bring seasonably warm weather across
southern New Mexico and west Texas today through early next week.
However sufficient residual moisture remains to give a few mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms most of the period. A minor
backdoor front from the east later Thursday will increase
thunderstorm chances through Saturday. Min Rh values will generally
range from 20%-30% lowlands and 35% to 45% higher elevations
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 74 100  74  98 /  20   0  30  20
Sierra Blanca           70  97  71  96 /  20  20  20  30
Las Cruces              69  97  69  95 /  30   0  40  20
Alamogordo              70  95  70  96 /  40  10  40  20
Cloudcroft              54  74  55  74 /  50  30  50  40
Truth or Consequences   69  95  70  93 /  40  20  50  30
Silver City             63  90  63  87 /  50  40  60  50
Deming                  69  98  69  94 /  40  10  40  30
Lordsburg               70  96  70  93 /  40  30  50  20
West El Paso Metro      73  99  73  98 /  20   0  30  20
Dell City               71 100  71  98 /  30  20  30  30
Fort Hancock            72 101  74  99 /  20  10  20  30
Loma Linda              68  94  69  93 /  20  10  30  30
Fabens                  71 100  72  98 /  20   0  30  20
Santa Teresa            72  98  72  97 /  20   0  30  20
White Sands HQ          70  96  71  95 /  40   0  40  20
Jornada Range           67  97  69  95 /  40   0  40  20
Hatch                   68  97  69  95 /  40   0  50  20
Columbus                71  98  71  95 /  20  10  30  30
Orogrande               71  97  72  97 /  40  10  40  20
Mayhill                 58  82  59  82 /  50  30  50  40
Mescalero               59  83  59  82 /  50  30  50  40
Timberon                59  81  60  82 /  50  30  50  40
Winston                 59  89  60  85 /  50  40  60  50
Hillsboro               65  94  66  91 /  50  40  60  50
Spaceport               67  96  69  94 /  40  10  50  20
Lake Roberts            57  88  58  85 /  50  50  60  50
Hurley                  64  92  64  89 /  50  30  50  40
Cliff                   63  95  65  92 /  50  40  50  40
Mule Creek              64  94  65  89 /  50  40  50  40
Faywood                 65  93  66  89 /  50  30  50  40
Animas                  70  97  69  93 /  30  30  50  40
Hachita                 69  97  69  93 /  30  20  40  40
Antelope Wells          67  96  67  91 /  30  20  40  40
Cloverdale              66  93  65  87 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Brice/Novlan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
340 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

NMZ415-416-012230-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet NM-
340 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM
MDT...

At 339 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Sacramento, moving north at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hay Canyon, Cox Canyon, Dry Canyon and Sixteen Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3276 10559 3279 10572 3301 10574 3298 10550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 190DEG 5KT 3288 10563

GRZYWACZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
412 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

NMZ410-012300-
Northern Dona Ana County NM-
412 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL DONA ANA COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

At 412 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles south of Rincon, moving east at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hatch and Rincon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 10723 3268 10721 3274 10694 3247 10696
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 270DEG 6KT 3261 10710

DENNHARDT

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