Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
216 PM MDT Sun Oct 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler air is moving into the region as a slow moving upper low
moves into the Four Corners region. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms can be expected through Monday ahead of this
low. The coolest temperatures of the season are expected Tuesday
morning. As the low finally moves east of area Tuesday,
temperatures will start to warm midweek with dry conditions
returning. The remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio could move into
the region late in the week and bring the potential for some
moderate to heavy rain followed by cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A couple of periods to focus on this forecast. First is the near
term with upper low currently near the UT/AZ border with several
disturbances and an associated cold front starting to move into
NW CWA. Currently there is some widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms west of Rio Grande but moving quickly NE with
additional storms in AZ associated with front which will move
through area overnight. Good agreement among models in near term
that there will be some shower activity through night, especially
west closer to upper low. With little eastward movement to low
Monday, expect similar isolated to scattered shower activity
through the day. Not much instability given how close we are to
upper low, but low level moisture is lacking with dew points
falling into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Temperatures will be much
cooler tomorrow with highs only in the mid 60s west to mid 70s far
east.

Upper trough axis will finally push through area Monday
night/Tuesday with little additional precipitation expected at
least until the end of the week. Temperatures will remain cool
Tuesday with highs similar to Monday, but overnight lows will be
the coolest of the season. Most lowland locations will be in the
40s to lower 50s with 30s in the mountains and possibly dropping
below freezing in favored valley locations and around Cloudcroft.

Southwest flow develops as a cutoff low develops out of a digging
trough along the Pacific coast. How exactly this low develops will
be key to how the remnants of TS Sergio move through the region.
GFS has been all over the place from run to run with 12Z model
looking similar to yesterday bringing bulk of moisture through
eastern AZ/far western NM. EC has been more consistent last couple
of runs and bringing moisture along the NM/MX border region with
bulk of it to the south. GFS ensembles have a little support for
the EC, but several support operational GFS but trend a little
slower. For now lowered POPs given in the model blend to 30-50
percent areawide starting late in the week. After tropical
remnants move through, cutoff low stalls off to the west of the
area and will keep some precip chances going along with a back
door next weekend which could keep highs in the 60s or cooler
areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 08/00Z-09/00Z...
Upper trough moves in bringing stronger west to west-southwest
winds between 10 to 20 kts and gusts to around 30 to 35 kts. Winds
should start diminishing after 6z to around 10 kts. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected between 0Z to 6Z, then some
lingering showers mostly in area mountains. Isolated mountain
areas may observe mixed precipitation behind the cold front
tonight. Therefore expect mostly VFR conditions through the TAF
sites, except near thunderstorms where ceilings and visibilities
could be lower into the MVFR or even the IFR categories.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Deep upper trough continues to approach the region bringing
strong west to west-southwest winds between 10 to 20 mph and gusts
around 30 to 35 mph. Isolated to scattered showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms are possible through the evening hours. The
associated cold front brings colder temperatures behind it, temps
will be running about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Isolated
portions of the mountain areas may observe near freezing
temperatures in the highest elevations over 9000 feet. These
locations may also observe some mixed precipitation with the
lingering showers overnight. By mid- week temperatures go back to
near normal as drier and warmer air moves in. Towards the end of
the week another upper level trough starts to approach the region.
However, it will not be by itself as it brings the remnants of a
tropical system. This will bring another chance for showers and
thunderstorms, and even some chances for significants amounts of
rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 61  72  52  73 /  20  30  30   0
Sierra Blanca           56  73  51  72 /  30  30  40   0
Las Cruces              52  70  45  70 /  20  30  30   0
Alamogordo              55  71  48  68 /  20  20  40   0
Cloudcroft              36  49  31  48 /  40  20  40  10
Truth or Consequences   49  66  45  67 /  20  40  20  20
Silver City             46  57  38  62 /  50  50  20  10
Deming                  47  69  42  70 /  30  40  20   0
Lordsburg               46  65  44  68 /  50  40  10   0
West El Paso Metro      58  72  51  71 /  20  30  30   0
Dell City               56  75  46  74 /  30  30  40   0
Fort Hancock            58  76  52  75 /  20  30  40   0
Loma Linda              52  68  47  68 /  20  30  40   0
Fabens                  56  73  51  74 /  20  30  30   0
Santa Teresa            54  70  48  71 /  20  30  30   0
White Sands HQ          54  71  47  70 /  20  30  30   0
Jornada Range           50  70  45  70 /  20  30  30   0
Hatch                   51  72  44  71 /  20  30  20   0
Columbus                53  69  46  71 /  30  40  20   0
Orogrande               57  71  50  70 /  20  20  40   0
Mayhill                 44  62  39  61 /  40  20  40  10
Mescalero               43  60  36  60 /  30  20  40  10
Timberon                43  59  36  58 /  30  20  40   0
Winston                 38  57  33  60 /  40  50  20  20
Hillsboro               43  63  41  66 /  30  40  20  10
Spaceport               47  68  42  69 /  20  30  20  10
Lake Roberts            36  53  30  55 /  50  50  20  20
Hurley                  42  60  36  64 /  50  50  10  10
Cliff                   38  62  35  65 /  50  50  20  10
Mule Creek              41  58  32  61 /  50  60  20  10
Faywood                 42  64  38  64 /  40  40  10  10
Animas                  47  66  46  70 /  50  40  10   0
Hachita                 49  67  42  69 /  40  40  10   0
Antelope Wells          47  66  42  70 /  40  50  20   0
Cloverdale              44  62  42  67 /  50  50  20   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

26/29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
743 AM MDT Sun Oct 7 2018

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-081345-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
743 AM MDT Sun Oct 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the area today,
especially over the higher terrain of the Gila Region. Brief
torrential downpours and wind gusts to 50 mph will be the primary
hazards associated with these storms, along with cloud to ground
lighting strikes.

Southwest winds will gust in the 30 to 40 mph range today,
strongest in Southwestern New Mexico and along east-facing
mountain slopes. Blowing Dust may develop in the vicinity of
Lordsburg Playa, periodically creating hazardous driving
conditions on Interstate 10.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Cooler temperatures will start the week. Some rain showers early
Monday morning may mix with snow at higher elevations, generally
above 9000 feet, but the impacts will be minimal.

The remnants of Hurricane Sergio will impact some portion of the
Desert Southwest late in the week with potentially significant
rainfall amounts. The exact timing of the system, and who gets
the heaviest rainfall is not yet clear.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
348 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2018

NMZ407-411-072215-
Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin NM-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley NM-
348 PM MDT SUN OCT 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LUNA AND
SOUTHWESTERN DONA ANA COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 347 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles east of Columbus, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Aden Crater and Camel Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3221 10741 3212 10694 3178 10724 3179 10753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 210DEG 45KT 3185 10739

GRZYWACZ