Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
145 PM MDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist unstable air will flow into New Mexico and west Texas
resulting in showers and thunderstorms across much of he region
this afternoon through Saturday. A few storms may produce heavy
rains with possible flooding...strong winds...and hail. High
pressure aloft will bring seasonably warm drier weather next week
with a few thunderstorms still possible but mainly around mountain
areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Air mass rather moist and unstable again early this afternoon.
MUCAPE's were already between 1000 and 2000 J/kg with
surface dewpoints around 55 to 60 F and precipitable water from
1.1 to 1.4 inches. In addition DCAPE's were high at mostly above
1200 J/kg. Thunderstorms have developed around mountain areas and
expect activity to increase via more surface heating plus
outflow forcing. Slow storm motion due to light winds aloft plus
high levels of moisture and instability indicate primary weather
hazard will be flash flooding. However elevated CAPE's and DCAPE's
suggest further risk of damaging downbursts and at least small
hail. Expect similar situation on Saturday as Precipitable water
will be around 1.2 to 1.5 inches with MUCAPE's around 1000 to
1500 J/kg. Models also indicate possible weak upper short wave
moving into the CWA from the north to further enhance updraft
initiation. Again on Saturday several storms may generate locally
heavy rains...damaging winds and hail.

By Sunday the CWA will be located between upper high over southern
Nevada and troughing over the plains. This pattern will support
northwest to northerly winds at mid levels with inflow of much
drier more stable continental air. Thus by Sunday afternoon
surface dewpoints will be mostly less than 50 F with precipitable
water greatly diminishing to only around .5 to .75 inch.
Consequently expect mostly dry weather on Sunday with subsidence
and sunshine pushing afternoon high temperatures to near 100 many
lowland locations.

Sunday night a cold front will push east to west across the CWA
with easterly winds behind it pushing slightly cooler but also
more moist air mass. By late Monday afternoon surface dewpoints
will again exceed 50 most areas with precipitable around an inch.
This will support a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening.

Tuesday through Friday upper high center will meander between
central New Mexico and the New Mexico-Arizona border region.
Associated subsidence should keep convection suppressed most
locations but low level easterly winds will sustain sufficient
moisture transport for a few mainly mountain area thunderstorms
each day.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/00Z-19/00Z...
VFR conditions through the period, but with chances for localized,
short-duration, MVFR to IFR conditions in vicinity of thunderstorms.
Thru 20Z skies generally FEW-SCT080 SCT150 SCT- BKN200 with VSBY
P6SM and SW winds AOB 12kts. However ISOLD lowland to SCT mountain
TSRA over lowlands aft 21Z may produce SCT-BKN060-080 BKN120 OVC200
skies with VSBY reduced to less than 1SM in +RASH, with winds
VRB30G45KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION... Increased monsoonal over the region through Saturday
should bring an increase in areal coverage of rain showers and
thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered late afternoon and evening rain
showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region. Near
normal mid- August temperatures each afternoon through Saturday,
then a hot day expected Sunday as the region dries out temporarily.
With dewpoints up, min RH will be well above critical values, with
good to excellent overnight recoveries. Clouds will increase each
afternoon with storms developing first over mountains by mid-day,
and then over the lowlands in the mid to late afternoon hours. Heavy
rainfall is likely with some storms the potential for local flash
flooding. Drier air and fewer storms back in the forecast for Sunday
and Monday. Next week looks seasonally warm with moderate moisture
bringing slight chance to chance of daily hit and miss rain showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 73  95  75 100 /  40  30  30   0
Sierra Blanca           69  93  70  96 /  40  30  30  20
Las Cruces              69  94  69  99 /  50  30  30   0
Alamogordo              69  92  69  98 /  40  30  30   0
Cloudcroft              54  72  57  77 /  60  40  30   0
Truth or Consequences   70  94  71  99 /  50  40  20   0
Silver City             63  87  63  92 /  50  40  30   0
Deming                  69  95  70  99 /  50  20  30   0
Lordsburg               69  94  70  98 /  40  20  30   0
West El Paso Metro      73  94  75  99 /  40  30  30   0
Dell City               70  97  72 100 /  40  30  30   0
Fort Hancock            72  96  73  99 /  40  30  30  10
Loma Linda              69  90  70  94 /  50  30  30   0
Fabens                  71  95  73  99 /  40  30  30   0
Santa Teresa            71  94  73  99 /  50  30  30   0
White Sands HQ          70  93  71  99 /  50  30  30   0
Jornada Range           69  95  69  99 /  50  30  30   0
Hatch                   70  96  70 101 /  50  30  30   0
Columbus                70  95  72  99 /  50  20  30   0
Orogrande               72  93  73  99 /  50  30  30   0
Mayhill                 59  79  61  85 /  60  40  30   0
Mescalero               59  81  61  86 /  60  40  30   0
Timberon                59  79  60  83 /  60  40  30   0
Winston                 60  86  62  91 /  60  50  30   0
Hillsboro               65  91  67  96 /  50  50  30   0
Spaceport               68  94  69  99 /  50  30  30   0
Lake Roberts            58  87  59  90 /  60  50  30   0
Hurley                  64  89  65  93 /  50  30  30   0
Cliff                   65  93  65  97 /  50  40  30   0
Mule Creek              65  91  66  95 /  50  40  20   0
Faywood                 65  90  67  94 /  50  40  30   0
Animas                  70  94  70  99 /  40  20  30   0
Hachita                 68  93  70  98 /  50  20  30   0
Antelope Wells          66  90  68  95 /  50  20  40  10
Cloverdale              65  88  66  92 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

05 Rogash/20 Novlan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
100 PM MDT Fri Aug 17 2018

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-181730-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila
Highlands/Black Range-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Eastern Black
Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-Northern Dona Ana County-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Central Tularosa Basin-
Southern Tularosa Basin-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500
Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-East Slopes Sacramento
Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Western El Paso County-
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco
Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Rio Grande Valley
of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
Eastern Hudspeth County-
105 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Several storms may
produce heavy rains with possible flooding...damaging wind gusts to
60 mph and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms  Saturday. Several
storms may produce heavy rains with possible flooding...damaging
wind gusts to 60 mph and small hail.

Drier weather expected Sunday through Thursday with a few showers
and thunderstorms still possible but with most of the storms
occurring around mountain areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report any significant weather occurrence
to local law enforcement and to the NWS office via our 800 spotter
number or via twitter using our office handle @NWSElPaso

Rogash

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