Red Flag Warning 4, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
309 AM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be windy and in many areas dusty across the Borderland.
A cold front will move through before peak afternoon heating so
temperatures will be down several degrees from yesterday. Monday
and Tuesday will be quiet with temperatures a little below normal.
By Wednesday an upper ridge will bring a significant warming trend
with afternoon lowland temperatures at or above 80 degrees into
the weekend. The next Pacific system could bring more gusty winds
and blowing dust Thursday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z model runs have increased the wind potential a little for
today, with a wind advisory in effect this afternoon and early
evening for most of our area. It will be upgraded to a high wind
warning for our Sacramento Mountains zones shortly as winds could
easily gust to more than 60 mph there. The upper trough and
associated cold front will pass by a little early for peak wind
potential and result in about 8 degrees of cooling compared to
Saturday's max temps. This will reduce the blowing dust potential
slightly as well, but don't get excited --- there should still be
plenty of dust in the air.

A second weaker short wave will insure that Monday will remain
cooler than normal but with much less wind. Tuesday will begin to
warm up but an upper ridge moving in will bring the biggest
temperature jump on Wednesday, with southwest flow ahead of the
next upper trough causing lowland temps to peak in the low to mid
80s Thursday. In fact, it's possible we'll see lowland temps at or
above 80 Wednesday through Saturday. The only downside for us warm
weather lovers is the trough passage late in the week that could
make Thursday another windy and dusty day...perhaps followed by
yet another one Saturday. At least the current models have the
wind potential for those a little less than today's system. And
the rain lovers will have to depend on their tear drops as the
pattern is mainly dry through this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/12Z-19/12Z... VFR conditions will continue
thru the TAF period. However some reduction in visibility will be
possible after 18Z due to localized BLDU. Expect P6SM FEW-SCT100
SCT-BKN250 with SW winds continuing. Expect winds 12 to 15 knots
gusting 20 to 25 knots through 18Z. After 18Z look for increasing
SW winds of 25 to 30 knots gusting 35 to 40 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An approaching upper disturbance will bring stronger winds to the
area today. However, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler,
resulting in min RH values above critical thresholds through the
day. Mainly dry conditions will be the rule with this system with
the exception of a few stray showers over northwestern fire zones
mainly this morning. Warm conditions will return by midweek with
a continuation of dry surface conditions. Lowland Min RH values
will run between 10 and 15 percent through the week. This combined
with increasing winds Thursday into the weekend could result in
critical fire weather conditions across the region later in the
extended period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 65  42  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           66  38  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              62  35  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              62  36  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              42  24  44  25 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   60  34  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             50  30  56  32 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                  60  32  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               58  32  60  34 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      64  41  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               68  37  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            69  41  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              61  38  60  40 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  67  40  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            64  39  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          63  38  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           62  32  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   63  32  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                63  36  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               64  38  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 52  31  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               51  30  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                50  29  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 52  31  56  32 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro               56  33  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               61  32  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            49  28  56  30 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                  53  29  58  31 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                   55  24  58  25 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek              52  24  58  25 /  20   0   0   0
Faywood                 55  31  59  33 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                  60  33  63  34 /  10   0   0   0
Hachita                 60  32  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          63  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              57  35  61  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     NMZ402>417.

TX...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     TXZ418>424.

&&

01 Fausett

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
640 AM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-191245-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
640 AM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong gusty winds and blowing dust can be expected, especially
during the afternoon hours. Winds will be west-southwest 25-35 mph
with gusts to 50 mph early this afternoon before shifting to
west-northwest and decreasing somewhat from west to east. Blowing
dust and low visibilities will be hazardous to drivers, especially
along I-10 west of Lordsburg during the early afternoon hours.
Also cross winds along north-south aligned highways will make
vehicles difficult to handle. Winds will be even stronger in the
Sacramento Mountains with gusts to more than 60 mph. Winds will
decrease significantly after sunset, though could still be strong
and gusty along the eastern slopes of the Franklin and Organ
Mountains until midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thursday and Saturday could be windy and dusty, though at this
time those wind events do not look as strong as today's.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Fausett