Freeze Warning 3, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
522 AM MDT Wed Oct 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring periods of showers and
thunderstorms to the area today, mainly favoring Grant, Sierra,
Otero, and Hudspeth Counties through midday, then spreading
southward into Dona Ana and El Paso Counties in the afternoon. A
few thunderstorms may produce small hail this afternoon. A back
door cold front will work in the Sacramento Mountains today, with
cooler temperatures changing rain to snow along the east slopes
around mid-afternoon, then changing over in places like
Cloudcroft by late afternoon. An inch or two of snow may
accumulate by this evening in the Sacramento Mountains. Otherwise,
it will be a chilly Halloween Night across the lowlands, with low
temperatures by Thursday morning dropping into the mid-30s. Drier
and quieter weather will persist through the weekend and into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough over the Four Corners is proving to be a
little more feisty than anticipated 24 hours ago. Several vort
lobes can be seen ahead of the trough over NM in Water Vapor
imagery, and bands of showers and thunderstorms have been
affecting mostly the northern counties of Grant, Sierra, and
Otero, as anticipated, but with higher coverage. Also, a stray
thunderstorm with a lot of lightning activiry skirted Southern
Dona Ana and Otero Counties earlier this morning. Showers have
also been increasing over Hudspeth County and northern Chihuahua
in response to a weaker southern stream shortwave trough and a
strengthening jet streak extending from Far West Texas into the
Texas Panhandle.

The main trough will continue to move eastward today, with the
main trough axis moving through ELP around sunset. Drier air aloft
will diminish precip activity in far SW New Mexico through the
day, but expect several more bands of showers and thunderstorms to
continue to affect the northern counties in the next 6-8 hours.

Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front will approach from the northeast
this afternoon, adding additional low level convergence as the
main trough approaches. This will result in an increase in shower
and thunderstorm activity over the northern counties this
afternoon, and expanding into Far West Texas and perhaps southern
Dona Ana County as well, though the best precip coverage will be
north and east of El Paso.

Temperatures will drop as the front pushes into the Sacamento
Mountains, particularly along the east-facing slopes this
afternoon. Snow Levels by late afternoon will be very lop-sided,
dropping down to around 6500 feet along the east slopes of the
Sacramentos, but remaining around 8500 feet west of the crest
until the evening hours. Thus, expect rain to mix with and change
over to snow in places like Mayhill and Weed after 2 PM, then
changing over in Cloudcroft closer to sunset. Weak instability
will may result in isolated thundersnow in the higher elevations,
particularly after 21Z when the mid-level cold max (around -20C at
H5) moves over Otero County with the main trough axis. QPF amounts
indicate 1 to 2 inches of snow will be possible through about 9
PM, with isolated amounts up to 3 inches in covective bursts.

Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms in the lowlands this afternoon may
produce small hail given the cooler temperatures aloft. Weak
instability will limit severe potential.

We'll pretty much get all the weather for the week out of the way
in the next 24 hours. Drier conditions will push in by Wednesday
night, especially out west, and winds also look to diminish. Many
lowland locations will drop into the mid-30s for low temperatures
by Thursday morning, and we've adjusted temperatures downward a
few degrees over the Gila Region and the Jornada Basin as it
appears winds will be a little lighter. The first freeze looks to
affect much of the lower elevations of the Gila Thursday morning,
and a Freeze Warning will be issued for these areas. The Jornada
Basin looks to get down to around 32 Thursday morning, but most of
the populated part of the northern Dona Ana County zone looks to
remain in the 33-35 range. The day shift can give this another
look and decide whether to add them to the warning. It's worth
noting that a few isolated cold drainage spots in the lowlands
could hit freezing as well.

Longer range models are in good agreement on keeping the area in
NW flow aloft, with a ridge off the west coast, and a trough
persisting over the Mississippi Valley through the forecast
period. Dry and cool weather will prevail Thursday and Friday,
with highs running about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. By
Saturday, high temps will moderate to seasonal levels.

A few weak disturbances embedded in the NW flow will pass to our
north through the period. The first on Friday with no noticeable
effects, the next on Saturday night, which will drag a weak
backdoor cold front into the area for Sunday, cooling temperatures
back down a few degrees. The final disturbance comes through on
Monday, and will serve to de-amplify the overall pattern across
the area, resulting in westerly flow aloft, and warming
temperatures for Monday. Another backdoor front may cool
temperatures a bit for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
An upper level disturbance centered over the Four Corners will
pass through the area today and tonight, bringing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area, mainly focused
over Grant, Sierra, Otero, and Hudspeth Counties this morning,
then spreading into West Texas and Dona Ana County in the
afternoon, as a backdoor cold front approaches from the northeast.
Ceilings will mainly be in the VFR range, but brief IFR
conditions will be possible in isolated thunderstorms. A few
stronger storms may produce small hail this afternoon. Rain and
snow will be possible in the higher terrain of the Sacramento
Mountains, particularly late in the afternoon as cooler air moves
in.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms today over
Grant, Sierra, and Otero Counties, speading into the lowlands this
afternoon, but mainly east of the Rio Grande. Snow levels are well
above 9,000 feet this morning, but an approaching backdoor cold
front will result in lopsided snow levels by this afternoon in the
Sacramento Mountains, with rain mixing with or changing to snow
along the eastern slopes by mid-afternoon, then along the crest of
the Sacramentos by late afternoon. An inch of two of snow will be
possible, with localized higher amounts in convective bursts.
Precip will push out of the area by 9 to 10 PM.

Behind this system, dry weather will persist through the next 7
days. Temperatures will be below normal for the next couple of
days with highs mainly in the 60s for the lowlands. Temperatures
will warm back to near normal for Saturday but another (weaker)
backdoor front will cool things down on Sunday.

Vent Rates will be poor over most of the higher terrain areas
today, then improving on Thursday. Friday looks mainly poor due
to lighter transport winds and limited mixing, but conditions
improve after that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 66  42  65  42 /  30  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca           63  38  62  38 /  70  20   0   0
Las Cruces              63  35  64  36 /  20  10   0   0
Alamogordo              59  37  59  36 /  50  20   0   0
Cloudcroft              36  26  40  26 /  70  20   0   0
Truth or Consequences   61  36  65  38 /  30   0   0   0
Silver City             56  30  59  33 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                  65  33  65  35 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg               63  37  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      65  41  64  42 /  30  10   0   0
Dell City               68  39  66  39 /  50  20   0   0
Fort Hancock            67  40  67  42 /  70  10   0   0
Loma Linda              60  37  60  39 /  30  20   0   0
Fabens                  67  38  66  41 /  40  10   0   0
Santa Teresa            65  39  65  38 /  20  10   0   0
White Sands HQ          63  38  63  40 /  30  20   0   0
Jornada Range           61  31  62  33 /  30  10   0   0
Hatch                   64  33  65  36 /  30  10   0   0
Columbus                66  36  67  38 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande               63  40  62  38 /  40  20   0   0
Mayhill                 44  29  52  30 /  70  20   0   0
Mescalero               45  31  50  31 /  70  10   0   0
Timberon                47  30  50  30 /  60  20   0   0
Winston                 53  28  58  30 /  30   0   0   0
Hillsboro               59  32  64  35 /  30   0   0   0
Spaceport               60  32  62  34 /  30  10   0   0
Lake Roberts            54  25  59  25 /  20   0   0   0
Hurley                  59  31  61  34 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                   61  30  64  30 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek              59  28  60  30 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                 58  33  63  36 /  20   0   0   0
Animas                  64  36  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 64  33  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          64  35  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              62  36  63  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Thursday for
     NMZ402.

     Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ403-408.

TX...None.
&&

25-Hardiman

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