Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
337 PM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
With our Monsoon pattern in full swing, we can expect some heavy
rain and flooding from thunderstorms through at least the weekend
and possibly the early part of next week. Temperatures will remain
cooler than normal. By Monday and Tuesday moisture amounts
diminish some, with thunderstorms still expected but perhaps with
less flood potential. Temperatures may warm back to normal by mid
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Our heavy rain potential looks to remain for several more days, as
the Monsoon season is in high gear. Split upper highs over the
lower Mississippi Valley and out west over the Great Basin will
persist for several days. PWs of 1.3 to 1.5 inches will persist
through Monday, with decent flood potential for this same period.
In the short term, it looks like mostly airmass thunderstorms
tonight. Most storms so far have popped and dropped within about
30-45 minutes. Modest MUCAPES and very little wind shear don't
bode well for more organized convection. Having said that, with
PWs of 1.3 to 1.4 inches tonight, some flooding is still possible,
with best potential south of a line from Lordsburg-Orogrande,
where a nose protrudes out from the main high to the northeast to
produce lighter flow aloft. Same story again across the weekend
and into Monday, though models showing some higher MUCAPE values
by Sunday, for a hint of potential for strong/severe storms.

Tuesday and beyond...both GFS and ECMWF begin slight drying trend,
though for different reasons. GFS shows Great Basin high becoming
the dominant (only) high center, with our winds turning more
northeast and entraining some drier air. This should isolate
thunderstorms more, but perhaps increase severe potential. ECMWF
on the other hand combines split high pattern back to one large
high over the southern Plains Tuesday and over New Mexico by
Wed/Thu. This scenario would possibly shut most/all activity off
by Wednesday. Did start trending POPs down after Monday but will
hold off on the draconian ECMWF solution for now.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 13/00-14/00Z.
Monsoon moisture will remain plentiful leading to additional showers
and storms. Best chances for convection will be between 00Z and 06Z
and again after 18Z. During these times look for SCT -TSRA AND
+TSRA/WIND VRB15G35KT/LCL VSBY 3-5SM/CIGS 040-060 AGL. Sky generally
SCT-BKN 050-070 BKN100-140 BKN200.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monsoon moisture looks to remain aver the area for much of the week
ahead. This will result in daily chances for wetting precip across
all fire zones. Early convection will favor higher terrain each day
with additional showers and storms filtering over lowland locations
during the afternoon and evening hours. Heavy rainfall and localized
flooding look to be the primary threat from this activity. However
frequent cloud to ground lightning will also be a concern where
convection occurs. Storm coverage will become a bit more isolated by
midweek next week when an upper ridge settles over the region.
However this will not completely eliminate rain chances. Meanwhile
min RH values will stay elevated each afternoon until midweek next
week, but should stay above critical thresholds through the entire
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 70  89  71  93 /  50  30  50  40
Sierra Blanca           66  87  67  91 /  40  30  40  30
Las Cruces              67  88  67  91 /  50  30  50  50
Alamogordo              66  86  67  88 /  50  30  50  40
Cloudcroft              52  63  52  68 /  50  40  60  50
Truth or Consequences   66  88  66  90 /  50  30  50  50
Silver City             61  78  60  80 /  50  40  50  60
Deming                  65  91  66  89 /  50  30  50  50
Lordsburg               66  92  66  87 /  50  30  50  50
West El Paso Metro      70  87  70  92 /  50  30  50  40
Dell City               67  90  68  94 /  40  30  30  30
Fort Hancock            70  90  70  93 /  50  30  30  40
Loma Linda              63  81  64  88 /  50  30  40  40
Fabens                  68  88  68  93 /  50  30  50  40
Santa Teresa            68  88  67  92 /  50  30  50  40
White Sands HQ          68  86  68  91 /  50  30  50  40
Jornada Range           65  88  66  91 /  50  30  50  40
Hatch                   66  90  66  93 /  50  30  50  50
Columbus                68  91  68  91 /  50  30  50  50
Orogrande               68  86  68  91 /  50  30  40  40
Mayhill                 56  71  55  77 /  40  40  50  50
Mescalero               56  71  54  77 /  50  40  50  50
Timberon                56  70  55  78 /  50  40  50  50
Winston                 57  78  56  80 /  50  40  50  50
Hillsboro               61  84  60  85 /  50  40  50  50
Spaceport               64  87  65  90 /  50  30  50  50
Lake Roberts            54  79  53  80 /  50  50  50  60
Hurley                  61  81  60  82 /  50  30  50  60
Cliff                   59  89  59  86 /  50  30  50  60
Mule Creek              60  87  61  84 /  40  30  50  50
Faywood                 63  83  61  84 /  50  40  50  60
Animas                  66  91  65  86 /  50  30  50  60
Hachita                 65  90  65  87 /  50  30  50  60
Antelope Wells          63  89  64  86 /  50  30  50  60
Cloverdale              62  84  61  83 /  50  30  50  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/17

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1201 PM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-131815-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1201 PM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated, mainly mountain thunderstorms early afternoon. Then
scattered thunderstorms all areas by late afternoon and night
time. Some storms will produce heavy rainfall and local flooding.
Small hail and wind gusts to 40 mph may also accompany a few of
these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day. Some storms will
produce heavy rainfall and local flooding. Best potential for
flooding is Friday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Hefner