Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
255 AM MDT Tue Jul 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist unstable air will continue to flow into southern New Mexico
and west Texas while upper disturbances move into the region.
This weather pattern will generate showers and thunderstorms over
much of the area through the next seven days. Locally heavy rains
are possible which may cause flooding over a few locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monsoonal weather situation will persist over much of the forecast
period. At the surface broad area of low pressure associated with
thermal/heat low will cover much of the western United States
with high pressure over the southern plains and central Texas most
of the period. This pattern will induce easterly...southeast and
southerly winds in the boundary layer with transport of abundant
moisture sustaining dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s most
locations. In the upper levels large ridge aloft will be aligned
on an east to west axis from the mid west across the central
Rockies into the Great Basin. Resultant circulation will support
south to southeast flow around 700 mb much of the period with
attendant moisture transport. In addition weak disturbances from
the east will occasionally move into the CWA.

Precipitable water should therefore stay above normal and range
from around 1.2 to 1.5 inches. Extensive cloud cover will limit
diurnal warming but little convective inhibition expected and
afternoon CAPE's forecasted to be around 600 to 1200 J/kg. the
limited heating plus areas of upslope flow around high terrain
should therefore prove sufficient for generally scattered storm
coverage with any embedded upper waves further enhancing
activity.

The high water vapor content plus slow storm movement and indicate
potential for heavy rains over several areas each day, especially
given the wind profiles occasionally favor some back building of
convective cells. Thus primary weather hazard will be flash
flooding.

Longer range guidance show upper ridge to the north dropping
southward. This may cause some decrease in storm coverage early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 10/12z-11/12z.
Moist unstable air will continue flowing into the region with a
few areas of MVFR or IFR ceilings and visibility in showers and
thunderstorms. Otherwise skies generally SCT-BKN040-060 and BKN-
OVC070-120. Winds speeds mostly 5-15kt with gusts to 30 kt near
thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist unstable air will continue to flow into southern New Mexico
and west Texas while upper disturbances move into the region.
This weather pattern will generate showers and thunderstorms over
much of the area through the next five days. Locally heavy rains
are possible which may cause flooding over a few locations.
Temperatures will remain around 5 degrees below normal with wind
speeds around 5 to 15 mph each day. Overall situation should
reduce the fire danger across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 89  71  90  72 /  30  40  20  30
Sierra Blanca           86  66  88  67 /  30  40  30  30
Las Cruces              87  67  88  68 /  30  40  20  40
Alamogordo              86  68  88  69 /  30  30  20  30
Cloudcroft              63  49  66  53 /  40  40  40  50
Truth or Consequences   87  68  88  69 /  20  30  30  30
Silver City             80  59  80  62 /  40  50  50  40
Deming                  87  67  88  67 /  30  40  30  30
Lordsburg               87  68  87  67 /  40  50  40  40
West El Paso Metro      89  70  89  72 /  30  40  20  30
Dell City               89  67  91  68 /  30  40  30  30
Fort Hancock            89  70  91  71 /  30  40  30  30
Loma Linda              84  64  86  66 /  30  40  30  30
Fabens                  89  68  90  69 /  30  40  20  30
Santa Teresa            88  68  90  70 /  30  40  20  30
White Sands HQ          87  69  88  71 /  30  40  20  40
Jornada Range           88  66  89  68 /  30  40  20  40
Hatch                   88  67  89  68 /  30  40  20  40
Columbus                89  70  90  69 /  30  40  30  30
Orogrande               87  69  89  71 /  30  40  20  30
Mayhill                 71  55  75  57 /  40  40  40  40
Mescalero               72  55  76  57 /  40  40  40  50
Timberon                71  54  75  57 /  40  40  40  40
Winston                 80  56  81  58 /  30  30  50  40
Hillsboro               84  62  84  64 /  40  50  50  40
Spaceport               86  66  87  68 /  20  30  20  30
Lake Roberts            80  52  79  54 /  40  50  50  40
Hurley                  83  60  82  63 /  40  50  40  40
Cliff                   86  60  84  59 /  40  50  50  50
Mule Creek              84  60  83  63 /  40  50  40  50
Faywood                 83  63  83  64 /  40  50  40  40
Animas                  88  67  87  66 /  40  50  40  40
Hachita                 87  66  87  66 /  40  50  40  40
Antelope Wells          87  66  87  65 /  40  50  40  40
Cloverdale              84  63  83  63 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

05 Rogash