Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
301 PM MDT Sat Jul 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Sufficient moisture is present along with disturbances aloft to
trigger scattered thunderstorms through Sunday. Though storms will
still be present, Monday will begin a drying trend. By late next
week storms limited to the mountains and mainly west of the
Continental Divide. Afternoon temperatures will begin at below
normal levels and then return to normal by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper high axis has shifted far enough north to increase
instability somewhat over the Borderland, as well as allow a
modest increase in midlevel moisture. Also an inverted trough was
approaching from the east. This all translates to a more active
day of convection, and this should be repeated Sunday (especially
during the evening). Localized flooding will be an issue the next
couple of days. On Monday thunderstorm activity will begin to
decrease as the inverted trough departs to the west and somewhat
warmer/drier air aloft moves in. The decrease will be more
noticeable Tuesday with the eastern portion likely becoming storm-
free by Wednesday except for in the mountains.

As for the western portion (especially west of the divide)? The
upper ridge re-orients itself to develop a more southerly (and
classic monsoonal) plume of moisture planted over Arizona, with
the benefits spilling over into western NM...mainly the NM
bootheel and west of a Antelope Wells to T or C line. Even that
area may become less active late next week into next weekend.
Meanwhile our "pleasant" below normal max temps will return to
normal midweek and a little above normal thereafter during this
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 07/00Z-08/00Z.
High pressure at the surface and aloft are now positioned
correctly to advect in fairly good moisture into the area.
Passing disturbances aloft will help set off scattered showers and
tstms through the forecast period. In general sky conditions:
SCT-BKN 050-080 SCT-BKN 100-140 AND SCT-BKN 200-250. In areas of
precip esply from 00Z-12Z expect BKN040 OVC100 3-6SM TSRA. More
isold SHRA AND TSTM 12Z-24Z Sunday. Winds gnly ENE-ESE 10G20KTS
except of course vrbl/gusty in and nr tstms where they may gust
35-40KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With low and mid level moisture continuing to slowly increase as our
overall wind flow pattern becomes more monsoon like, expect
thunderstorm coverage to increase into scattered category today into
Sunday. Some heavy rain and local flooding possible with these
storms. A gradual drying out will take place Tuesday through most of
the rest of the week, with mostly isolated thunderstorms over the
mountain zones. Temperatures will remain at or below normal through
the weekend and into mid week of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 72  90  71  89 /  30  20  30  30
Sierra Blanca           66  85  66  85 /  30  30  30  30
Las Cruces              68  88  67  87 /  20  20  40  30
Alamogordo              67  87  66  86 /  30  20  50  20
Cloudcroft              50  66  48  65 /  40  50  80  40
Truth or Consequences   69  88  68  86 /  20  40  30  30
Silver City             62  83  62  84 /  50  50  50  30
Deming                  67  89  67  87 /  20  20  40  30
Lordsburg               68  90  68  88 /  20  20  40  30
West El Paso Metro      72  88  71  88 /  30  20  30  30
Dell City               67  88  66  88 /  30  30  30  30
Fort Hancock            70  89  70  89 /  30  30  30  30
Loma Linda              65  86  64  85 /  30  20  40  20
Fabens                  69  89  67  88 /  30  30  30  20
Santa Teresa            69  89  69  88 /  30  20  30  30
White Sands HQ          70  87  69  87 /  30  20  40  30
Jornada Range           67  88  66  87 /  20  20  40  30
Hatch                   68  90  67  88 /  20  20  40  30
Columbus                69  91  70  90 /  20  20  30  30
Orogrande               69  88  68  88 /  30  20  30  20
Mayhill                 54  78  54  74 /  30  50  60  40
Mescalero               54  77  54  75 /  30  50  70  40
Timberon                54  75  54  73 /  40  40  60  40
Winston                 58  86  57  80 /  40  50  50  30
Hillsboro               63  86  63  84 /  30  50  40  30
Spaceport               67  87  66  86 /  20  20  40  30
Lake Roberts            54  86  53  80 /  40  50  60  30
Hurley                  62  85  62  84 /  30  40  40  30
Cliff                   60  87  59  85 /  50  50  50  40
Mule Creek              61  88  61  86 /  50  40  60  40
Faywood                 64  85  64  83 /  30  40  40  30
Animas                  68  91  68  89 /  20  20  40  30
Hachita                 68  91  67  89 /  20  20  40  30
Antelope Wells          67  91  67  88 /  20  20  30  40
Cloverdale              65  89  65  86 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

01/20 Fausett/Novlan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1120 AM MDT Sat Jul 7 2018

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-081730-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1120 AM MDT Sat Jul 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon and become
scattered, moving from northeast to southwest. They will have the
potential to produce heavy rain and localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms will be scattered Sunday and Monday, decreasing in
coverage Tuesday and limited to mainly the mountains by Wednesday.
The best chance of localized flooding will be Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed, but spotters are encouraged
to send their reports to this office.

Fausett