Blowing Dust Advisory 2, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
122 PM MDT Thu Apr 12 2018Issued by NWS Midland

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper trough moving across the Great Basin today will bring
very windy conditions to the region this afternoon through Friday.
High wind and blowing dust is expected. Cooler conditions are
expected Friday behind a Pacific front. Look for lighter wind
Saturday and Sunday with temperatures warming into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The main concern remains the high wind... wind speeds have begun to
pick up this afternoon as daytime heating mixes stronger winds down
to the surface.  The latest model runs continue to show a high wind
event running through Friday.  A strong upper trough moving across
the Great Basin with a short wave rotating through the base of the
trough will combine with a deepening surface low to produce some of
the strongest wind observed in this region in months.

Tonight a Pacific front will move across the area.  Much cooler air
will pour into the region with temps Friday expected to be about 20
degrees cooler.  Winds will remain elevated overnight with very high
wind along eastern slopes early Friday.  Areas of blowing dust can
be expected to reduce visibilities at times this afternoon through
Friday.

The weekend will be much quieter as an upper ridge starts to build
in from the west. Saturday should be cooler with temperatures
returning to near normal Sunday.  Westerly flow then increases next
week for above normal temperatures.  Another short wave will bring
some gusty wind Tuesday... however this one will pass further north
and not expected to be as strong.  With dry conditions across the
area no rain expected for the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Valid 12/18Z-13/18Z... Expect strong/gusty W/SW winds
to persist and even increase through the afternoon and evening
hours before decreasing slightly later tonight. The exception will
be a ELP where high winds look to continue overnight. High winds
will likely result in areas of BLDU through this evening,
decreasing vis to MVFR at all terminals and perhaps periods of
IFR at DMN. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Extremely critical fire weather conditions have developed as a
strong upper system moves toward the central Rockies and
eventually onto the plains. The strongest winds will occur from
late this afternoon through overnight along eastern slopes with
little recovery of relative humidity. Minimum RH values will be 5
to 15 percent range this afternoon and Friday... with maximum RH
values only in the lower 20s tonight. Critical fire conditions
will persist Friday as strong west to northwest winds continue in
the morning... then begin decreasing Friday afternoon while
becoming more northerly. Cooler temperatures behind a Pacific
front and lower wind speeds over the weekend will result in
reduced fire weather concerns before warming again early next
week with critical fire weather conditions possible again Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 57  66  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           53  66  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              48  62  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              49  63  36  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              29  41  22  44 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   46  61  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             38  54  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  46  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               43  62  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      56  65  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               51  68  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            56  69  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              50  61  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  55  67  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            52  65  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          52  63  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           47  62  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   46  63  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                50  65  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               52  64  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 38  51  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               36  49  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                36  49  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 35  52  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               42  59  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               45  61  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            33  53  25  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  39  57  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   37  60  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              38  56  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 40  58  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  46  63  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 45  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          47  65  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              44  60  34  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until noon MDT Friday for NMZ408-413-415-416.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for
     NMZ403>407-410>414-417.

     Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ110>113.

     High Wind Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for NMZ401>407-409>412-
     414-417.

TX...High Wind Warning until noon MDT Friday for TXZ419.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for
     TXZ418>424.

     Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for TXZ055-056.

     High Wind Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for TXZ418-420>424.

&&

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