Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
337 AM PDT Wed Apr 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Moderate to locally heavy rain is expected during
Wednesday afternoon as a front moves east across the region.
Showers will continue behind the front Wednesday night and
Thursday, with isolated thunderstorms and small hail possible
along the coast, and light mountain snow likely over the interior.
Drier weather is expected during Friday and Saturday, followed by
additional rain and mountain snow on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Strong frontal ascent will move east across the
region this afternoon, and though moisture will not be particularly
anomalous, moderate to locally heavy rain will be possible
(particularly over the mountains of Del Norte and northern
Humboldt Counties). Meanwhile, a cold unstable airmass will spread
east across northwest California behind the front tonight.
Lightning data shows scattered strikes occurring within the post
frontal airmass Wednesday morning over the northeast Pacific.
Thus, confidence has increased slightly in isolated thunderstorm
and small hail potential along the Humboldt/Del Norte coast
Wednesday night.

Otherwise, snow levels are forecast to fall to 2500-3000 feet
tonight. This will favor light snow for interior highway passes,
with higher totals in excess of 4 inches probable above 4000 feet.
The higher amounts above 4000 feet would be sufficient for an
advisory, but elected not to issue due to highest snowfall totals
occurring over unpopulated areas of far eastern Del Norte,
northern and southeastern Trinity, and northeast Mendocino
Counties.

Light showers will continue through Thursday, followed by upper
ridging and drier weather Friday and Saturday. The upper ridge
will be shunted east going into Sunday as a large upper low enters
the NERN PAC. The upper-low will be accompanied by very cold
midlevel temperatures (2 to 3 standard deviations below CLIMO at
500 mb), which will support additional mountain snowfall Sunday
and Monday, as well as isolated thunderstorms and small hail near
the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions early this morning will start to
deteriorate by late morning into this afternoon as an approaching
cold front generates a period of moderate to heavy rain.
Conditions for the most will fall to MVFR, however IFR cigs and
vsbys will be possible in heavy rain this afternoon, primarily at
CEC. Moist NW flow along with a weak disturbance aloft will
generate additional bouts of rain and MVFR cigs and vsbys through
tonight. The front will also generate fairly brisk south-
southeasterly winds this morning, especially at CEC. Winds will
rapidly shift around to the west and northwest and become gusty by
this evening in the cooler more unstable air behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...A cold front will move across the waters today
generating another round of robust southerly winds. Winds will
rapidly shift around to the W-NW and become gusty in the cooler
more unstable air behind the front by this evening. A secondary
westerly wind surge may follow on Thu, however, guidance has been
consistent with mostly sub-advisory level winds, 20 kt or less.
With slightly more unstable conditions on Thu, higher
instantaneous peak gusts in and around showers or storms should be
expected. Going into Fri-Sun, winds overall look to remain rather
bland with the only question being another weak front that will
approach either Fri night or Sat. The potential for strong winds
(southerly or northwest) with this front remains very low at the
moment.

Both long period westerly swell and short period southerly wind
waves will build today. The swell continue to build tonight, with
significant wave heights reaching 15 ft on Thu. Hazardous seas
will continue on Fri, though the swell will start to trend
downward. Another long period swell will build over the weekend
and heights may once again reach or exceed 10 ft.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until
     4 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 AM PDT Saturday
     for PZZ455-475.

&&

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see the forecast zone map online:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Eureka CA
304 AM PDT Wed Apr 11 2018

CAZ102-105>108-110-111-113-121015-
Del Norte Interior-Northern Humboldt Interior-
Southern Humboldt Interior-Northern Trinity-Southern Trinity-
Northwestern Mendocino Interior-Northeastern Mendocino Interior-
Southeastern Mendocino Interior-
304 AM PDT Wed Apr 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest California.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Light snow will be possible at highway pass levels tonight. Heavier
snowfall in excess of 4 inches will be possible for elevations above
4000 feet.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Light mountain snow showers will continue during Thursday.
Additional mountain snow will be possible Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CAZ109-112-121015-
Mendocino Coast-Southwestern Mendocino Interior-
304 AM PDT Wed Apr 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest California.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated thunderstorms and small hail will be possible Sunday and
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CAZ101-103-104-121015-
Coastal Del Norte-Northern Humboldt Coast-Southwestern Humboldt-
304 AM PDT Wed Apr 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest California.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A slight chance of thunderstorms and small hail exists Wednesday
night.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated thunderstorms and small hail will be possible Sunday and
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.