Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
346 PM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 329 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2018

Mid/upper level pattern characterized by a trough over the
northern midwest and a strong ridge over the western half of the
CONUS. A shortwave trough will carve into the mid level flow and
dig through the forecast area through the remainder of the day.
This may set off a round of widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms across northern Missouri through the evening and
into the night. This trough should be aided by diabatic heating,
which should erode low level inhibition. Near NIL deep layer shear
will prevent any organized storm structures or widespread severe
weather, but decently large T/TD spreads in the low levels may
lend to isolated and localized downburst activity leading to some
gusty winds. Even in those cases, winds should be sub-severe with
any of this activity. By sunset with the loss of diurnal support
expect thunderstorm activity to cease.

By the middle part of the week the trough will depart the area,
and the ridge to the west will slowly expand eastward, which will
put most of the area under an unfavorable pattern for
precipitation. As the ridge builds through the week, expect a
gradual warming trend, which will culminate late week with
temperatures returning into the upper 80s to lower 90s. With dew
points settling in the middle to upper 60s expect little departure
between actual temperatures and heat indices through the middle to
late part of the week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2018

Widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be
possible later today. Confidence in terminals being impacted by
these showers is low at this time, so went with VCTS to mention
the potential impact. Otherwise expect periods of BKN/SCT low/mid
level clouds, but no sub-VFR conditions are anticipated.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Leighton

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
458 AM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-311000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
458 AM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
 however, no severe weather is expected.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 Hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
436 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2018

MOZ002-302200-
Nodaway MO-
436 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NODAWAY COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 436 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Maryville, moving south at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Maryville and Arkoe.

LAT...LON 4037 9491 4035 9473 4022 9475 4025 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 015DEG 9KT 4032 9485

Grana