Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1203 AM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 240 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

The MCS that moved through IA this morning forced an outflow
boundary into the middle of the forecast area, roughly along the
Missouri river. There is decent convergence along this boundary,
particularly across eastern portions of the forecast area where
diurnal CU have developed. If we're going to see afternoon storms
today, this area seems to be the most likely candidate. One thing
that could prevent this from happening though are the high clouds
preventing maximum heating and potentially keeping the area
underneath the clouds from reaching the convective temperature.
But with the convergence and already very unstable air mass, it
seems the slightest trigger is enough to get things going. So have
added slight chance pops along the outflow boundary from our east
to around western Lafayette and Johnson counties. There is also a
CU field developing in the high cloud free area in northern MO on
what looks like another boundary. This area also has a chance of
seeing isolated showers and storms if convective temperatures can
be met.

Tonight, the ongoing convection in IA may eventually build into the
northeastern portions of the forecast area so have slight chance to
chance pops mentioned for this.

For tomorrow, it's going to be another hot, humid and windy day.
Highs are likely to top out in the middle to upper 90s with peak
heat index values around 100 to 103 in places. This will be ahead of
an advancing cold front. It's that cold front that will need to be
watched as there is good agreement that thunderstorms will
develop along it and advance southeastward across the forecast
area. With ample CAPE building in the heat and humidity and steep
mid-level lapse rates, severe storms will be possible. Shear looks
weak but with the strength of the instability, there could be
some severe hail in the strongest updrafts. Otherwise, an
inverted V sounding and mid-level dry air suggest a good potential
for damaging winds. Forecast soundings show very high downdraft
CAPE values in the area where storms should develop so feel
confident this will be the biggest threat from these storms.

For the rest of the forecast, cooler and drier air will move into
the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler
but the lower dewpoints will be more noticeable. For the later half
of the week, the heat returns as highs climb back into the 90s and
dewpoints climb back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The ridge that
builds eastward continues to look flat so period thunderstorm
chances, either diurnal or from MCSs, look possible as well. So it's
really just a return to the pattern we've been in.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2018

VFR conditions will continue through much of the prevailing
period. Overnight convection is expected to remain east of the
terminals. Winds should generally remain under 12 kts through
16-17Z...but some gusts of 15-18kts are possible. Winds will pick
up out of the south-southwest after 16-17Z ahead of a cold front
translating across the Central Plains. The cold front will begin
to work into NW Missouri and NE Kansas between 20-00Z with storms
expecting to develop during this time along the frontal boundary.
Storms will move southeastward nearing the terminals between
00-04Z. Strong winds associated with storms will be possible as
the line and cold front move through. Behind the front, winds
will veer around to the northwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...PP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
509 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
509 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Hot conditions are expected today with highs in the low to mid 90s
 band heat index values in the mid 90 to low 100 degree range.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

 Hot conditions are expected today with highs in the low to mid 90s
 band heat index values in the upper 90s to mid 100 degree range.

 Severe storms may be possible across most of the area Monday
 evening into Monday night. Damaging winds and large hail will be
 the main threats.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>