Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Kansas City, MO

997 
WWUS53 KEAX 132209
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
509 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

MOC005-132230-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180413T2230Z/
Atchison MO-
509 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN ATCHISON COUNTY...

At 509 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hamburg, or 19
miles northwest of Tarkio, moving north at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Atchison County.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 121 and 123.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for northwestern
Missouri.

LAT...LON 4058 9559 4053 9562 4054 9565 4056 9568
      4052 9571 4052 9575 4058 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 199DEG 45KT 4059 9569 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kurtz

314 
WWUS53 KEAX 132220
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
520 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

MOC005-132230-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180413T2230Z/
Atchison MO-
520 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ATCHISON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for northwestern
Missouri.

LAT...LON 4058 9559 4053 9562 4054 9565 4056 9568
      4052 9571 4052 9575 4058 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 212DEG 39KT 4069 9561 

$$

Kurtz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
123 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 119 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

Still expecting the chance for strong to severe storms to develop later this
afternoon for portions of our forecast area. At this time it appears
the higher probabilities for severe weather will be across the western
portion of the forecast area particularly far northeast KS and
northwest MO. That region will have the largest shear and
instability near a surface low and attendant warm front draped
west to east near the MO/IA state line. There exists a substantial
cap that may serve to mitigate severe storms from becoming very
widespread... at least that is what many of the high-res models
are depicting. All the activity should dissipate late this
evening with the passage of a strong cold front.

In the wake of the frontal passage late tonight, rapid drying in the
mid-levels will bring an end to precipitation for the early
overnight. This will be short-lived, however, as the the back side
of the surface low advects eastward. This will occur coincident with
the passage of the main upper-low as it slowly lifts to the
northeast. Despite the drying mid-levels, cooling low-levels will
promote saturation and the development of drizzle within a confined
layer of moisture beneath 800 hPa early Saturday morning. As the
moisture profile deepens once again by late Saturday morning into
the afternoon, expecting to see drizzle transition to a light rain
as the surface low continues to push eastward. By Saturday evening,
a continued cooling thermal profile, along with a saturated
dendritic growth zone, will support a light rain/snow mix Saturday
night through early Sunday morning. While minor accumulations are
possible on grassy surfaces, precipitation rates and the existing
stored surface heat should mitigate accumulations and resulting
impacts.

A more significant impact Saturday night/Sunday morning will be with
wind chill values ranging from the mid-teens to low 20s as increased
low level flow persists during the arrival of an unseasonably cold
air mass from the northwest. Surface heating will be limited as a
result Sunday afternoon, with high temps only peaking in the upper
30s across northern MO, to the low to mid 40s for areas south of
Highway 36. Precipitation will taper off early Sunday morning, while
cloud cover should slowly erode Sunday evening. Mid-level ridging
will maintain dry conditions through the early work week, along with
a warming trend through Tuesday. The passage of a subsequent cold
front Tuesday night will prevent additional heating Wednesday,
bringing temps back to more seasonal values. At this time,
precipitation development looks to be fairly limited ahead of the
frontal boundary Tuesday night. Better precip chances will hold off
until the late week into the early weekend as another potential
dynamic storm system returns to the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

For this afternoon, VFR cigs and vis are expected with very
breezy southerly surface winds. Late this afternoon thunderstorms
are expected to develop near the terminals associated with an
approaching cold front. At this time STJ has the best chance of
seeing a storm compared to the other terminals. The activity
should be out of the area by 02 UTC. Winds will shift to the
northwest behind the front will MVFR CIGS developing after sunrise
tomorrow, but no issues to the visibility.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-060-105.

MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MOZ043-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Pietrycha/Welsh
Aviation...Pietrycha

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
230 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-140730-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
230 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

 Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across much Missouri and
 eastern Kansas late this afternoon and evening. Strong winds, large
 hail, and isolated tornadoes will be possible with any storms that
 achieve severe limits.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

 Light mixed precipitation or snow is possible Saturday night into
 Sunday morning with very light accumulations possible north of the
 Kansas City Metro. In addition, subfreezing temperatures are
 expected Sunday and Monday mornings.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
400 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

MOZ004-005-013-014-132130-
Daviess-De Kalb-Gentry-Harrison-
400 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS...EASTERN
GENTRY...SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON AND NORTHEASTERN DEKALB COUNTIES...

At 400 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles north of
Maysville, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bethany, Albany, New Hampton, Mcfall, Martinsville and Fairport.

This includes Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 88 and
91.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3994 9431 3997 9447 4035 9428 4034 9412
      4023 9398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 207DEG 45KT 4000 9435

Kurtz