Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Kansas City, MO

291 
WWUS53 KEAX 290011
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
711 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

MOC081-129-290030-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-180829T0030Z/
Mercer MO-Harrison MO-
711 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN MERCER AND EAST CENTRAL HARRISON COUNTIES...

At 710 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Princeton, or
18 miles east of Bethany, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Princeton, Mount Moriah, Mill Grove and Modena. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 9378 4041 9381 4050 9347 4027 9341
      4027 9346 4026 9361 4027 9376 4026 9376
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 258DEG 37KT 4034 9370 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Barham

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
646 PM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

Satellite imagery shows a weakly amplified pattern in place across
the Nation, with a notable shortwave trough seen zipping east into
the Dakotas, which will be the primary upper level driver for the
storms expected through the rest of the afternoon and overnight
periods in eastern Kansas and Missouri. Closer to home, the surface
front associated with the Dakotas trough is currently wallowing
around Nebraska City, southwest into central Kansas; which has
allowed breezy hot and humid south winds to prevail through the day
across the region. Otherwise, early this morning moisture transport
on the nose of the nocturnal jet, running parallel to the surface
front, spread across the frontal boundary to our north and helped
fuel morning into early afternoon thunderstorm activity across
northern Missouri. The morning activity is not anticipated to have
much, if any, moderating affect on the convection this afternoon and
evening as the southerly wind has effectively replaced any worked
over airmass from the earlier activity. Thus, the only follow on
effect from the morning storms expected is to lower flash flood
guidance values a little across far northwest Missouri this evening.

For the rest of the afternoon and overnight hours, the trough moving
through the Dakotas will continue it's trek east, dragging the cold
front southeast into and through eastern Kansas and Missouri
overnight. Currently, storms have started to bubble up just ahead of
and along the front, with activity moving back into far northwest
Missouri around 19Z. In general, the front will be pushing into a
rather unstable airmass this afternoon, with MUCAPE values across
our region running in the 4000+ J/KG range. But, the persistent
southwest jet, associated with the Dakotas trough, continues to keep
a bit of a cap in place across the Kansas-Missouri border; as
evidenced by early afternoon aircraft sounding from KMCI and flat
cloud structures on satellite in areas removed from the frontal
boundary. Thus, continue to expect only isolated storms in areas
more than 40 miles from the the front, with more persistent
convection tracking northeast along the front as it presses
southeast through the rest of the afternoon and overnight hours.
Shear along the front will range from 30 to 40 knots through the
evening, thus severe storms are likely at some point, though the
parallel nature of the flow to the front indicates that some large
hail will be possible, but that damaging wind from collapsing
storms or mixing down of the jet, is the most likely severe
weather feature this afternoon and tonight. Otherwise,
precipitable water values around 2 inches along the front will
allow for very efficient rain making storms, so any locations that
get more than one or two storms with torrential rain may see
flooding issues. There is some potential for late tonight/early
Wednesday morning for redevelopment of storms in a broad area of
far northern Missouri as many solution advertise the nocturnal jet
bumping into an elevated frontal boundary lagging behind the
front. This will bring more rain to areas north of the River, but
in a scattered nature, but will still need watching. And, the
last big adjustment to the forecast for tonight was to limit the
highest POPs to area along and north of the Missouri River, as the
capping from the southwest jet is looking strong enough to limit
the ability for storms to spread farther south before sunrise.

Beyond tonight...temperatures will cool nicely behind the front for
Wednesday and Thursday, with another chance for rain Thursday night
into Friday as another trough moves into the northern Plains.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

Currently most of the thunderstorm activity has pushed east of
all TAF locations. However, guidance is still split on the next
round of storms later tonight. A cold front in northwest Missouri
has yet to push through the area and convection is still a
possibility. Additionally, IFR ceilings have developed behind the
cold front and should continue to spread south which will impact
all terminals until mid morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
tomorrow with northerly winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter/Otto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
502 AM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
502 AM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Heat indices between 97-102 degrees are expected this afternoon.

 Severe storms are possible across the area late this afternoon into
 this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
 threats however, an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out.

 These storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall which may
 lead to localized flash flooding.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
630 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S KANSAS CITY         39.03N 94.56W
08/28/2018                   JACKSON            MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTING A LARGE TREE FELL
            ON HOME TRAPPING A COUPLE INSIDE. EMERGENCY
            CREWS ON SCENE. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

PP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

MOZ005-006-290030-
Mercer MO-Harrison MO-
637 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MERCER AND CENTRAL
HARRISON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 637 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bethany, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bethany, Ridgeway, New Hampton, Cainsville, Mount Moriah, Modena and
Martinsville.

This includes Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 89 and
103.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
north central Missouri.

LAT...LON 4031 9361 4019 9414 4031 9422 4033 9422
      4053 9375
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 246DEG 29KT 4028 9409

Barham

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S KANSAS CITY         39.03N 94.57W
08/28/2018                   JACKSON            MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED TO BROADCAST MEDIA VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
            OF NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ACROSS THE
            ROCKHURST UNIVERSITY CAMPUS. TIME ESTIMATED
            VIA RADAR.

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
647 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GALT                    40.13N 93.39W
08/28/2018                   GRUNDY             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE MAPLE TREE DOWN IN GALT.

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
650 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     HAIL             5 E TINDALL             40.15N 93.52W
08/28/2018  E1.25 INCH       GRUNDY             MO   PUBLIC

            REPORTED TO EMERGENCY MANAGER VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

PP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
659 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

MOZ015-016-023-024-290045-
Grundy MO-Livingston MO-Linn MO-Sullivan MO-
659 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LINN...SOUTHEASTERN
GRUNDY...SULLIVAN AND NORTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

At 658 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Trenton, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Milan, Browning, Galt, Chula, Laredo, Humphreys, Osgood and Reger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
north central and northeastern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4037 9311 4014 9285 4012 9285 3988 9349
      4002 9363
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 233DEG 39KT 4000 9349

Barham