Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
345 PM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 345 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

Satellite imagery shows a weakly amplified pattern in place across
the Nation, with a notable shortwave trough seen zipping east into
the Dakotas, which will be the primary upper level driver for the
storms expected through the rest of the afternoon and overnight
periods in eastern Kansas and Missouri. Closer to home, the surface
front associated with the Dakotas trough is currently wallowing
around Nebraska City, southwest into central Kansas; which has
allowed breezy hot and humid south winds to prevail through the day
across the region. Otherwise, early this morning moisture transport
on the nose of the nocturnal jet, running parallel to the surface
front, spread across the frontal boundary to our north and helped
fuel morning into early afternoon thunderstorm activity across
northern Missouri. The morning activity is not anticipated to have
much, if any, moderating affect on the convection this afternoon and
evening as the southerly wind has effectively replaced any worked
over airmass from the earlier activity. Thus, the only follow on
effect from the morning storms expected is to lower flash flood
guidance values a little across far northwest Missouri this evening.

For the rest of the afternoon and overnight hours, the trough moving
through the Dakotas will continue it's trek east, dragging the cold
front southeast into and through eastern Kansas and Missouri
overnight. Currently, storms have started to bubble up just ahead of
and along the front, with activity moving back into far northwest
Missouri around 19Z. In general, the front will be pushing into a
rather unstable airmass this afternoon, with MUCAPE values across
our region running in the 4000+ J/KG range. But, the persistent
southwest jet, associated with the Dakotas trough, continues to keep
a bit of a cap in place across the Kansas-Missouri border; as
evidenced by early afternoon aircraft sounding from KMCI and flat
cloud structures on satellite in areas removed from the frontal
boundary. Thus, continue to expect only isolated storms in areas
more than 40 miles from the the front, with more persistent
convection tracking northeast along the front as it presses
southeast through the rest of the afternoon and overnight hours.
Shear along the front will range from 30 to 40 knots through the
evening, thus severe storms are likely at some point, though the
parallel nature of the flow to the front indicates that some large
hail will be possible, but that damaging wind from collapsing
storms or mixing down of the jet, is the most likely severe
weather feature this afternoon and tonight. Otherwise,
precipitable water values around 2 inches along the front will
allow for very efficient rain making storms, so any locations that
get more than one or two storms with torrential rain may see
flooding issues. There is some potential for late tonight/early
Wednesday morning for redevelopment of storms in a broad area of
far northern Missouri as many solution advertise the nocturnal jet
bumping into an elevated frontal boundary lagging behind the
front. This will bring more rain to areas north of the River, but
in a scattered nature, but will still need watching. And, the
last big adjustment to the forecast for tonight was to limit the
highest POPs to area along and north of the Missouri River, as the
capping from the southwest jet is looking strong enough to limit
the ability for storms to spread farther south before sunrise.

Beyond tonight...temperatures will cool nicely behind the front for
Wednesday and Thursday, with another chance for rain Thursday night
into Friday as another trough moves into the northern Plains.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

VFR conditions will greet the 18Z TAF, but a cold front will
sweep through this afternoon and this evening, bringing showers
and thunderstorms for a large portion of this TAF cycle. Much of
the activity will be focused late in the afternoon through
midnight. Storms may persist through the early morning hours of
Wednesday, but we expect the focus for storms to have shifted
east. All that said, this is a low confidence forecast that will
likely need lots of amending once the storms along the front near
the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
502 AM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
502 AM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Heat indices between 97-102 degrees are expected this afternoon.

 Severe storms are possible across the area late this afternoon into
 this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
 threats however, an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out.

 These storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall which may
 lead to localized flash flooding.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1115 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

KSZ102-MOZ011-012-281645-
Doniphan KS-Holt MO-Andrew MO-
1115 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DONIPHAN...SOUTHEASTERN
HOLT AND SOUTHWESTERN ANDREW COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM CDT...

At 1115 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Troy, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wathena, Troy, Amazonia and Fanning.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 54 and 69.
 Interstate 229 between mile markers 11 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4003 9500 3987 9480 3979 9492 3979 9493
      3977 9494 3967 9509 3983 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 1615Z 228DEG 27KT 3982 9511

Grana

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1117 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

MOZ002>004-281645-
Worth MO-Gentry MO-Nodaway MO-
1117 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WORTH...NORTHERN
GENTRY AND SOUTHEASTERN NODAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM CDT...

At 1117 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stanberry, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stanberry, Ravenwood, Conception Junction, Clyde, Gentry, Worth and
Conception.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4031 9430 4012 9462 4012 9464 4024 9481
      4047 9453
TIME...MOT...LOC 1617Z 228DEG 27KT 4026 9462

Grana

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
312 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

KSZ102-MOZ011-012-282045-
Doniphan KS-Holt MO-Andrew MO-
312 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DONIPHAN...CENTRAL
HOLT AND NORTHWESTERN ANDREW COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 312 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
White Cloud, or 9 miles northwest of Highland, moving northeast at 50
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mound City, Oregon, Maitland, Forest City, White Cloud, Big Lake,
Fortescue, Bigelow and Iowa Point.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 72 and 87.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 9515 4019 9507 4015 9506 4013 9504
      4013 9500 4009 9495 3986 9534 4000 9534
      4000 9531 4003 9535 4003 9540 4004 9542
      4006 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 228DEG 42KT 3996 9538

Grana

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
348 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

MOZ002-004-011-012-282115-
Holt MO-Gentry MO-Nodaway MO-Andrew MO-
348 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GENTRY...
NORTHEASTERN HOLT...SOUTHERN NODAWAY AND NORTHWESTERN ANDREW COUNTIES
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 347 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Maitland, or 10 miles east of Mound City, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Maryville, Stanberry, Mound City, Maitland, Fillmore, Barnard,
Conception Junction, Bolckow, Graham, Rosendale, Guilford, Clyde,
Arkoe, Rea and Conception.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 64 and 77, and
between mile markers 82 and 86.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3993 9500 4015 9528 4044 9480 4020 9453
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 228DEG 42KT 4012 9502

Grana

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
357 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

MOZ004-005-013-014-282130-
Daviess MO-De Kalb MO-Gentry MO-Harrison MO-
357 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS...
SOUTHEASTERN GENTRY...SOUTHERN HARRISON AND NORTHEASTERN DEKALB
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 357 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Maysville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Maysville, Pattonsburg, Coffey, Weatherby, Mcfall and Santa Rosa.

This includes Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 71 and
82.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3986 9429 3991 9441 4020 9415 4006 9393
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 224DEG 33KT 3994 9427

Grana