Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Kansas City, MO

075 
WWUS53 KEAX 200802
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
302 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

MOC083-200811-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-180720T0815Z/
Henry MO-
302 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3805 9410 3804 9411 3806 9413 3804 9420
      3805 9420 3805 9421 3804 9424 3805 9425
      3806 9427 3821 9425 3824 9407 3822 9408
      3821 9405 3803 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 266DEG 29KT 3814 9409 

$$

MOC013-200815-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-180720T0815Z/
Bates MO-
302 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BATES COUNTY...

At 301 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Appleton City,
or 14 miles east of Rich Hill, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Rockville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3805 9410 3804 9411 3806 9413 3804 9420
      3805 9420 3805 9421 3804 9424 3805 9425
      3806 9427 3821 9425 3824 9407 3822 9408
      3821 9405 3803 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 266DEG 29KT 3814 9409 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1059 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 311 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

Active afternoon across west-central Missouri and eastern Kansas
as a strongly unstable airmass interacts with passing midlevel
vort maxes and numerous outflow boundaries. EAX radar shows
multiple outflow boundaries from ongoing and earlier convection
across the immediate KC Metro and points south, with numerous
splitting supercells across southern portions of the Metro. In
fact, we just received a healthy dose of golf ball sized hail here
at the office, with baseball sized hail reported over in Lone
Jack. Further to the west, TWX radar showing the next inbound
cluster or organized storms moving into the Topeka area which if
current movement trends persist, should arrive into the immediate
KC Metro by 4 PM. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible
with this cluster of storms as well, with latest radar trends
suggesting the line of storms is beginning to take on bowing
characteristics. If this upstream cluster maintains its intensity,
its possible winds in excess of 75 mph will be possible over the
KC Metro. Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #1087 for
additional details. And if this were not enough, the region north-
central Missouri is also being monitored for another watch as
latest SPC mesoanalysis shows a well-defined instability axis
extending up into southern Iowa. Southward extent of this activity
remains in question, but latest CAMs to include the HRRR suggest
isolated activity with increased ascent thanks to incoming
shortwave energy in west-northwest flow aloft. By this evening,
activity should gradually come to an end as main cold front off to
our northwest moves through and eventually stalls south of our
region. Between now and then however, the radar will remain active
with all severe weather threats possible considering ample
buoyancy and increased forcing for ascent as upper shortwave
energy approaches.

Aforementioned cold front to stall south of our region tonight,
with latest models suggesting additional shwr/storm activity
possible south of Route 50 through the predawn hours. Hydro
concerns should remain low through the overnight as the terminus
of the low-level jet is directed away from our region, but radar
trends will need to be monitored. By tomorrow, a ridge of high
pressure should start extending south into our region from the
northern Plains, however models indicate low chance pops along the
lingering front during the afternoon and evening hours. Beyond
this, high pressure should take hold of the weather pattern with
dry and pleasant conditions expected through much of the upcoming
weekend as winds remain from the north and northeast. In fact,
high temps through the weekend look to be mid to upper 80s, which
will feel more than welcomed for many.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. A
few showers may be possible early this morning, but we do not
expect them to impact the terminals. Lastly, while it's not
included in the TAF at this time, we may have to amend in a bit of
ground fog due to Wednesday's rain.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...32
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
459 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
459 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible across
portions of northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri through the
morning. Into the afternoon, additional thunderstorm development is
expected along the surface boundary across western Missouri into
southern Iowa. Strong to severe storms are possible, with the
greatest chance in central to northern Missouri. Damaging winds and
hail are the primary concerns.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No Hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Kurtz