Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Kansas City, MO

321 
WWUS53 KEAX 191838
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
138 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

MOC095-191847-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-180719T1900Z/
Jackson MO-
138 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3883 9421 3883 9412 3888 9412 3890 9408
      3880 9392 3869 9415
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 321DEG 15KT 3881 9409 

$$

MOC037-101-191900-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-180719T1900Z/
Cass MO-Johnson MO-
138 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CASS AND WEST CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTIES...

At 137 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Kingsville, or
8 miles northwest of Holden, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Kingsville and Strasburg. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3883 9421 3883 9412 3888 9412 3890 9408
      3880 9392 3869 9415
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 321DEG 15KT 3881 9409 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Grana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1257 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.Mesoscale Discussion...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

Fairly impressive severe thunderstorm activity earlier this
morning with a 78 mph wind gust reported at Whiteman AFB in
eastern Johnson County. This convection spawned a well-defined
outflow boundary that has worked west into the greater KC Metro
area, with both GOES-16 and EAX radar trends showing numerous
cloud streets filtering into the boundary signifying strong low-
level convergence. With dewpoints residing in the lower 70s this
afternoon in an uncapped airmass, afternoon MLCAPE values have
soared above 4000 J/kg per latest RAP analysis. Considering upper
wave to our north is brushing northern Missouri and eastern
Kansas, expect a gradual increase in large-scale ascent over the
region as we head into the afternoon hours. Couple this with the
aforementioned outflow boundary serving as a focusing mechanism,
widespread thunderstorm development is expected as we progress
through the afternoon hours. Large hail and wind gusts in excess
of 60 mph will be the main threats as a unidirectional wind
profile supports splitting supercells. Isolated tornadoes will
also be possible in response to strong enhanced 0-1 km vorticity
along the lingering outflow boundary.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 329 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

Early morning radar trends indicate a weakening MCS moving into
far northwest Missouri and southeastern Nebraska. Helping to
sustain this MCS is a shortwave disturbance embedded within the
northwest flow aloft. This disturbance will continue to drop
southeast through the morning, which will allow for chances of
scattered convection to continue through at least the morning
hours across northern Missouri, southward to around the Missouri
River. As scattered convection fires through the morning hours,
there will likely be a sufficient wind profile to bring some
organized storm structures. Since we are looking at early day
convection, it's unlikely at this point that these storms will be
truly surface based, especially considering the light wind field
and the lack of surface heating through the early part of the day,
so perhaps the most prevalent threat with any of this convection
would be hail, as well as localized heavy rain and lightning.

The remainder of the day will be rather conditional, especially
regarding the temperatures, as well as potential instability. It's
probable that the morning convection will keep cloud cover in
place for a good portion of the day, which will stymie the
temperatures. Conceptually, it's hard to imagine temperatures
getting well into the 90s, and model guidance has started to back
off of the mid/upper 90s that they have indicated for the last
few forecast runs, so a downtrend in daytime highs seems
appropriate. Have avoided going too much lower, in order to keep
some consistency with previous forecasts, so heat indices for the
day could possibly get back to around 100 degrees, so have kept
the heat advisory in place. Day shift may need to reassess its
necessity through the morning hours after monitoring the
convection/cloud trends. Aside from the temperatures the clouds
could keep instability a bit more subdued than otherwise. This is
important because in the wake of the morning shortwave disturbance
a surface boundary is expected to slide into the area, which may
kick off another round of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. This
frontal boundary may end up stalling somewhere near the MO River,
which could keep chances for rain going through the overnight
hours. PWAT values are still pretty high, on the order of 2", so
any storm will have very efficient rain rates, which will lead to
localized high rainfall amounts, perhaps on the order of several
inches. This could lead to areas of localized flooding. Overall
confidence in this forecast is low to medium. Confidence in
scattered thunderstorms through the day is medium to high, but the
coverage will likely be scattered enough that predicting where the
highest impacts will be felt is almost impossible at this point.
Also, given some of the parameters in place regarding the
potential instability and shear it's possible that some of these
storms could be on the strong to severe side.

A pretty major pattern change takes place for Friday, into the
weekend and beyond. The surface frontal boundary slides far enough
south, so as to put the best convergence well south of the
forecast area. By the weekend and into next week, there will be a
heavy influence from a surface ridge, which will encroach the area
by the weekend. This ridge should provide a bit of a drier and
cooler trend for that period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

Main concern this afternoon involves convective potential this
afternoon in a moderate to strongly unstable airmass. Latest GOES-16
visible satellite imagery shows a slowing outflow boundary from
earlier convection approaching the KC Metro, with both satellite and
radar confirming strong convergence into the boundary based on the
appearance of multiple cloud streets over the Metro and points
south. As such, have offered a tempo group starting at 19z for TSRA
at all KC terminals, with the knowledge that trends will have to be
monitored in case additional time is needed. Fcst models do
suggest that main cold front should move through the region by
this evening which should keep additional storm activity to the
south during the late evening and overnight hours, however
confidence remains marginal at this time. There will be some
potential for early morning fog at STJ Friday morning, however
will need to address that concern with later updates after
convective trends become established.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-029-037>039-
     043>045-053-054.

&&

Mesoscale...32
Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...32

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
459 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
459 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible across
portions of northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri through the
morning. Into the afternoon, additional thunderstorm development is
expected along the surface boundary across western Missouri into
southern Iowa. Strong to severe storms are possible, with the
greatest chance in central to northern Missouri. Damaging winds and
hail are the primary concerns.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No Hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Kurtz

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S WHITEMAN AIR FORCE  38.68N 93.56W
07/19/2018                   JOHNSON            MO   PUBLIC

            8" TREE KNOCKED DOWN AND SIGNIFICANT FLAG
            POLE BENT ON HWY D 5 MILES SOUTH OF U.S. 50.

&&

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1217 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 AM     HAIL             POLO                    39.56N 94.04W
07/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           MO   PUBLIC

&&

SGA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1218 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     TSTM WND GST     POLO                    39.56N 94.04W
07/19/2018  E55 MPH          CALDWELL           MO   PUBLIC

&&

SGA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1258 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 PM     HAIL             4 N WARRENSBURG         38.77N 93.74W
07/19/2018  E1.75 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
106 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 PM     HAIL             2 ENE WARRENSBURG       38.77N 93.71W
07/19/2018  E1.75 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

32

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
126 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

MOZ037-043-044-191900-
Cass MO-Johnson MO-Jackson MO-
126 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CASS...SOUTHEASTERN
JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 125 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lone Jack, or 8 miles southeast of Lake Lotawana, moving southeast at
15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lone Jack, Kingsville, Strasburg and Pittsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3889 9423 3894 9411 3892 9411 3892 9405
      3881 9390 3870 9413
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 321DEG 15KT 3886 9411

Grana