Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Kansas City, MO

699 
WGUS63 KEAX 040256
FFAEAX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
956 PM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

MOZ001-002-011-040400-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-180904T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Holt-
Including the cities of Tarkio, Rockport, Fairfax, Maryville, 
Mound City, Oregon, Maitland, Forest City, and Craig
956 PM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of northwest Missouri has
been cancelled. The axis of heaviest rain has shifted to the north
and west of the area, lessening the potential for flash flooding.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1219 PM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 322 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

Regional radars continuing to show widespread rains occurring
across northwest Missouri with extension into central Kansas this
morning as a low-level jet of 20-30 kts overruns a convectively
produced outflow boundary. With time this morning, most fcst
models show this activity weakening as both the low-level jet and
available instability begin to decrease. Latest radar trends seem
to support this notion with higher reflectivity echos along the
southern edge of ongoing MCS showing some weakening within the
past hour or so. Heading into the day today, expect a gradual
decrease in rain chances as main precipitation shield seen on
radar imagery this morning lifts north into Iowa, leaving a mostly
dry day for our region. While we cannot totally rule out a passing
pop-up storm or two, lack of any appreciable forcing supports the
latest high-res model solutions which keep the bulk of our region
dry through the day. Did entertain the idea of canceling the
flash flood watch a little early, but decided against it with
moderate rains still falling across northwest Missouri this
morning, and will defer to the dayshift once rain stops falling.
With a fair amount of cloud cover expected to remain in place,
expect high temps a few degrees cooler than yesterday with
mid/upper 80s expected.

While today may be dry for most, our region is by no means out of
the woods for rain chances this week as the central U.S. remains
in prime position for continued moisture transport north from the
Gulf of Mexico. Another night of heavy rain is likely this
evening, however latest models suggest the bulk of this activity
will remain to our west overnight. Rain chances will likely
increase during the day on Tuesday as warm air advection continues
and synoptic-scale forcing increases in advance of an approaching
trough; however the main event looks to arrive on Wednesday as
main cold front begins moving through the region. This feature
will be accompanied by good midlevel vorticity advection along
with ample upper divergence as our region will reside in the
favorable right entrance region of an upper jet. Quick look at
PWAT values suggest values of 2-3 standard deviations above normal
prevailing across the region, which should set the stage for
another round of heavy rain with possible flooding. Latest model
trends suggest the front will be very slow to move through the
region which means that rain chances will continue right through
the end of the week and into early portions of the upcoming
weekend before the front finally clears the area. What does seem
readily apparent though, is that the well-established tropical
moisture connections seen on layered precipitable water imagery
this morning will remain in place for quite some time.
Additionally, Potential Tropical Cyclone #7 also poses some
concern as moisture associated with this feature begins lifting
north, likely in time to begin interacting with the
aforementioned frontal boundary that will linger across our region
through late week. All told, several rounds of shwrs and storms
will be possible from midweek on before main front clears the area
Saturday night/early Sunday. As was discussed yesterday however,
we need the rain and this week's system certainly promises to at
least help ease some of the drought impacts that have been
persisting across the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

MVFR ceilings between 2000 and 3000 feet have developed over
eastern KS and western MO. These should be short-lived and last
only a few hours before surface heating and mixing raise bases to
lower end VFR. For this evening and overnight, the diurnally
driven clouds are expected to dissipate with only high level
clouds moving through. But tomorrow morning, as diurnal heating
kicks in again, low VFR or even MVFR ceilings will develop again.
Have kept precipitation out of the forecast for now as it looks
like the best chance for showers and storms will be tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ025-102.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ001>006-
     011-012-020.

&&

Discussion...32
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
536 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-041045-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
536 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The majority of the area will stay dry today with the exception of
far northern Missouri that will see storms continue through the early
afternoon. While these storms are not expected to be severe, repeated
rounds of showers and heavy rain could create areas of localized
flooding. Flash flooding is possible if these storms intensify,
resulting in a flash flood watch being continued for this area
through 1pm today. The storms will move north into Iowa in the
afternoon and evening timeframe leaving the area relatively hazard
free except for some minor river flooding along the Missouri River.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A frontal boundary will move into the area Tuesday afternoon,
bringing widespread showers and storms into western Missouri. This
boundary will move slowly through the area through Wednesday allowing
for prolonged rainfall of 1-2" with localized higher totals. This
added rainfall could increase the possible river flooding throughout
the region, as well as flash flooding if storms move over the same
area in a short period of time. The rainfall will push north of the
Missouri River Thursday. Tropical remnants from the Gulf of Mexico
could make it up into our area Friday through Sunday, creating the
possibility of even more flooding if soils are saturated this week.
This will need to be watched closely as the week goes on.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo