Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
301 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

At 2 PM CDT, another hot and humid day with record to near record high
temperatures and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s to around 100F.
Isolated storms have once again fired south of highway 30. Unlike
past couple of days appears storms are staying below severe levels
with convection likely to weaken due to pure heating and no forcing
in the next 2 to 3 hours. Moisture from "Alberto" will tend to arrive
late Tuesday ahead of next weak front with increasing chances of
precipitation by Tuesday night through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Short Term Forecast Confidence Assessment...fair to good or average
to above average. Main issue is if convection once again develops
mid to late PM with less instability and forcing suggesting non-severe
storms more likely than past two days. Area highs and lows once gain
likely to be within 3 degrees with mins like past two nights possibly
a few degrees too high.

Tonight...Like last night, any convection likely to end around 7 PM
or earlier. This to result in another warm night with fair skies and
lows in the upper 60s to locally near 70F in south sections. Light
east to southeast winds.

Tuesday...increasing clouds by afternoon with popcorn showers and isolated
storms suggested by 3 to 4 PM. Again, less instability supports storms
to stay below severe levels. Highs about 3 to 4 degrees cooler resulting
heat index values mostly middle 90s during early to mid afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

For Tuesday night, scattered showers and storms are possible as a
low amplitude upper wave approaches from the northwest and the
remnants of what was subtropical storm Alberto reaches SE Illinois.
However, the coverage of storms at any one time may not be that high
due to the absence of focused ascent. Through midnight, remnant
convective outflow boundaries and possibly an axis or two of low-
level convergent flow, more on the synoptic scale, may be enough to
develop occasional scattered showers and storms.

Later in the night into Wednesday afternoon, PVA associated with the
outer periphery of Alberto's mid-level circulation and increasing
upper divergence in the right entrance region of an upper jet streak
may lead to more widespread rain, and possibly isolated embedded
thunder, across parts of the eastern forecast area. Further to the
west, there is a chance for diurnally driven scattered showers and
storms as the heat and humidity build Wednesday afternoon.

Model consensus takes a 2.2" PWAT max, attendant to extratropical
Alberto's circulation, and swath of very heavy rainfall to the east
of the forecast area, across eastern Illinois or northern Indiana.
The CMC and NAM are further west and would bring heavy rain into the
far eastern counties of the CWA. This is a situation we'll have to
monitor as it gets closer.

Thursday On

After starting in the mid 80s to around 90 F on Thursday, a series
of backdoor cold fronts will cause temperatures to gradually cool
and humidity to decrease from Friday through the upcoming weekend.
Overall, rain chances are low through this period. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

VFR conditions with summertime, fair skies and hot with mostly light
southeast to east winds. Isolated convection this PM with coverage
enough to support vicinity of storms wording this PM. Once again, some
risk of patchy light fog toward daybreak but not included as past two
nights have shown little or no reduced visibility so persistence suggests
keeping AOA 7 miles attm.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Record Highs for May 29...

Moline.........99 in 1934
Cedar Rapids...99 in 1934
Dubuque........97 in 1934
Burlington.....98 in 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...16
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...16
CLIMATE...16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
408 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-290915-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
408 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Hot and moderately humid weather will continue today, with highs
in the mid to upper 90s, and heat index readings approaching 100
degrees. Be sure to take breaks and drink plenty of water today.

Much like the past few days, in the heat of the day, isolated
thunderstorms are possible, especially along and south of
Interstate 80. Any thunderstorm that develops will move slowly,
and will bring the threat for very heavy rain, frequent lightning,
and gusty winds. A few severe thunderstorms are possible as well,
with winds to 60 mph and quarter size hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Hot temperatures are expected to continue through Tuesday. Chances
for thunderstorms exist from Tuesday night through Thursday and
again Sunday. It is too soon to tell if any of these storms could
become severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon.

Ervin/Gibbs

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1251 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

ILC011-155-281830-
Putnam-Bureau-
1251 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PUTNAM AND CENTRAL BUREAU
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

At 1249 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Spring Valley,
or near Peru, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Princeton, Hennepin, Spring Valley, Henry, DePue, Granville, Ladd,
Wyanet, Tiskilwa, Dalzell, Bureau Junction, McNabb, Putnam, Mark,
Cherry, Malden, Seatonville, Magnolia, Standard and Milo.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 49 and 72.
 Interstate 180 between mile markers 1 and 13.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4111 8935 4112 8934 4115 8933 4115 8961
      4148 8961 4147 8917 4110 8916
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 054DEG 8KT 4133 8919

Sheets

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
139 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

ILC011-073-155-281915-
Putnam-Henry-Bureau-
139 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN PUTNAM...EASTERN HENRY
AND WESTERN BUREAU COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 136 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were developing and moving
across Putnam, eastern Bureau, and eastern Henry counties. These
storms were moving to the southwest around 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail can be expected with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kewanee, Princeton, Geneseo, Galva, Henry, Wyanet, Atkinson,
Sheffield, Annawan, Tiskilwa, Buda, Putnam, Neponset, Manlius,
Mineral, Milo, Bishop Hill, New Bedford, German Corner and Kewanee
Municipal Airport.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 18 and 54.
 Interstate 180 near mile marker 4.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4110 8936 4115 8933 4115 8964 4123 8964
      4123 8987 4115 8987 4115 9018 4151 9018
      4151 8962 4111 8924
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 054DEG 49KT 4129 8951

Sheets

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
252 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

ILC131-161-IAC115-139-282015-
Rock Island-Mercer-Louisa-Muscatine-
252 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN ROCK ISLAND...
NORTHWESTERN MERCER...NORTHERN LOUISA AND SOUTHERN MUSCATINE
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 251 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Eliza, or near
Muscatine, moving west at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Muscatine, Fruitland, Grandview, Eliza, Letts, Illinois City,
Fairport, Cranston, New Era, Fairport Recreation Area, Wildcat Den
State Park, Petersville, Ardon, Muscatine Municipal Airport and
Flaming Prairie Park.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4147 9088 4124 9088 4125 9130 4151 9128
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 098DEG 9KT 4135 9100

Sheets

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
521 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

IAC057-282245-
Des Moines-
521 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL DES MOINES COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

At 520 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near West
Burlington, or near Burlington, moving west at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington, West Burlington, Danville, Middletown, Gulf Port, Starr's
Cave Park and Preserve, Sperry, Prairie Grove, Big Hollow Recreation
Area, Pleasant Grove, Dodgeville, Beaverdale and Des Moines County
Fairgrounds.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4081 9136 4101 9136 4098 9102 4084 9107
      4081 9110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 098DEG 24KT 4091 9112

Sheets