Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Quad Cities, IA

220 
WWUS53 KDVN 022346
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
646 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

IAC107-030030-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-180503T0030Z/
Keokuk IA-
646 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN KEOKUK COUNTY...

At 645 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near What Cheer, or
7 miles northwest of Sigourney, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Sigourney, What Cheer, Delta, Keswick, South English, Harper,
Kinross, Keota, Webster, Thornburg, Sig-Nor Field Airport, Coal
Creek, Keokuk County Expo, Lake Belva Deer Park, Yenruogis County
Park, Talleyrand, Keokuk County Fairgrounds and Sigourney Iowa
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
the Quad Cities.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4147 9241 4151 9210 4151 9195 4129 9195
      4131 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 257DEG 22KT 4142 9230 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Gibbs

577 
WWUS53 KDVN 022354
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
654 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

IAC107-030030-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-180503T0030Z/
Keokuk IA-
654 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN KEOKUK COUNTY...

At 654 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Keswick, or
near Sigourney, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Sigourney, What Cheer, Delta, Keswick, South English, Harper,
Kinross, Keota, Webster, Thornburg, Sig-Nor Field Airport, Coal
Creek, Keokuk County Expo, Lake Belva Deer Park, Yenruogis County
Park, Talleyrand, Keokuk County Fairgrounds and Sigourney Iowa
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially deadly storm. Seek shelter in an interior room
on the lowest floor of a well-built structure. Abandon vehicles in
search of a more substantial permanent structure. Stay away from
windows.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
the Quad Cities.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4147 9241 4151 9210 4151 9195 4129 9195
      4133 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 257DEG 22KT 4143 9223 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Gibbs

006 
WWUS53 KDVN 030001 RRA
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
701 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

IAC107-030030-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-180503T0030Z/
Keokuk IA-
701 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN KEOKUK COUNTY...

At 701 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Keswick, or 7
miles north of Sigourney, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Sigourney, Keswick, South English, Harper, Kinross, Keota, Webster,
Sig-Nor Field Airport, Keokuk County Expo, Lake Belva Deer Park,
Yenruogis County Park, Talleyrand and Sigourney Iowa Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

This is a potentially deadly storm. Seek shelter in an interior room
on the lowest floor of a well-built structure. Abandon vehicles in
search of a more substantial permanent structure. Stay away from
windows.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
the Quad Cities.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 9210 4151 9195 4129 9195 4132 9229
      4140 9234 4148 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 257DEG 22KT 4144 9217 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Gibbs

454 
WWUS53 KDVN 030013
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
713 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

IAC107-030030-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-180503T0030Z/
Keokuk IA-
713 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN KEOKUK COUNTY...

At 713 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Keswick, or
near Sigourney, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Keswick, South English, Harper, Kinross, Keota, Webster, Yenruogis
County Park, Lake Belva Deer Park and Sigourney Iowa Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

This is a potentially deadly storm. Seek shelter in an interior room
on the lowest floor of a well-built structure. Abandon vehicles in
search of a more substantial permanent structure. Stay away from
windows.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
the Quad Cities.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 9210 4151 9195 4134 9195 4136 9223
      4142 9226 4148 9223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 263DEG 13KT 4143 9217 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Gibbs

334 
WWUS53 KDVN 030030
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
730 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

IAC107-030040-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-180503T0030Z/
Keokuk IA-
730 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN KEOKUK COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southeastern Iowa.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
the Quad Cities.

LAT...LON 4151 9210 4151 9195 4134 9195 4136 9223
      4142 9226 4148 9223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 257DEG 22KT 4145 9205 

$$

Gibbs

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
407 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

The latest sfc analysis continues to show quasi-stationary boundary
undulating almost in place from the northeastern GRT LKS, down bi-
secting IA from northeast-to-southwest, and acrs central KS. Pooled
sfc DPTs in the low to mid 60s to the lee of this feature acrs much
of the local area driving buoyancy/CAPEs of 1000-2000 J/KG. But lack
of much of a trigger/forcing and CAP aloft has kept a lid on much of
any convection so far. But the special sounding released form the
local office shows that the CAP has eroded and RADAR indicating that
things are perculating. Deep southwestern CONUS effectively arching
active southwesterlies up acrs the southern/central plains and the
mid/ upper MS RVR Valley. The area will continue to be under the gun
for rounds of strong to severe convection into Thu night. After the
TROF pushes east through the region, fair and seasonably warm
weather left in it's wake until a northwest flow system brings about
the next chance of precipitation from late Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

Front continuing to sag into the cwa will be the focus for convection
tonight. Main window for severe weather potential will be this evening
possibly into the early overnight, with aid of the low level jet and
approaching shortwave. Mode appears to be multicell with hail and wind
threat, with potential for some linear segments possibly evolving
upscale from KS/MO/sw IA into a QLCS and moving along/s of front with
attendant damaging wind threat. Anticipate a decrease in convection
coverage late tonight through Thursday AM with waning nocturnal LLJ and
weak subsidence in wake of passing wave and any organized convection.
Then will storms redevelop by mid afternoon along any residual outflow
boundaries, with some potential for strong to isolated severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

Main window for severe threat Thursday looks to once again favor the
evening with main forcing /height falls aloft/ beginning to overspread
the area. Trend has been to slow a bit more with positive tilt trough,
and so may see more organized convection developing to our west
propagating into cwa during the evening with a damaging wind and large
hail threat. Also a non-zero tornado threat exists should convection
grow upscale into QLCS, or ahead of surface low where winds locally
backed enhancing low level SRH. Still anticipate around an inch of rain
widespread by Friday morning with areas of higher amounts of 2+ inches
in locations where storms move over repeatedly.

Drying out and pleasant weather then for Friday into Saturday as weak
high pressure builds quickly into the region. Still indications of
another front for late Saturday into early Sunday with chance of showers
and possibly a few storms. Then another stretch of dry and pleasant
weather to start next week, with indications of our next precipitation
chances toward the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

VFR level clouds will trend toward MVFR level from the west this
afternoon, especially at CID and DBQ with slow moving front
sagging toward those areas from the northwest. Gusty southwest
winds will decrease and become west to northwest at those sites
near the front as the afternoon and into the evening period
progresses. Will have to be on the watch as several short fuse
HiRes models keep trying to ignite isolated to sctrd thunderstorms
along and several miles either side of the I80 corridor later
this afternoon and into the evening. This activity will have to
battle a cap in place, but with afternoon heating there may be a
chance. If these storms get going, they could be strong and
produce high variable wind gusts and hail, as well as locally
heavy downpours. After this potential afternoon/early evening
window there may be a lull in the convection, before more
thunderstorm clusters move in from the southwest after 10-11 PM
and last through 3-4 AM in the morning. These later night storms
will have a chance of being strong and impact the TAF sites as
well. Some light fog possible in the VCNTY of the front where
winds go light and variable in relatively high SFC DPT fields.
   ..12..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

Widespread forecasted rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is currently
expected by Friday morning.  This, on top of the current snowmelt
flood working downstream the Mississippi River, will result in Minor
to Moderate flooding along some stretches of the river.

The Mississippi River at New Boston is now expected to reach the
Moderate Flood Stage level. Otherwise, no changes to flood forecast
categories were made at this time.

Due to some uncertainty in the 24 to 36 hour rainfall forecast
amounts, Mississippi River level forecasts may vary from what is
currently being indicated. However, the NCRFC notes that any
rainfall on top of the current record snowmelt flood wave would push
the main stem Mississippi River a bit higher. If significant
rainfall does NOT occur in the next 36 hours, these forecast crests
may be lowered.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...12
HYDROLOGY...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
356 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-031000-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
356 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon and move
across portions of the Outlook Area through early evening. then
another round of storms is expected to move into the area from the
southwest after mid evening and into the overnight. Severe weather
is possible with both rounds, with the main threats being large
hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Areas that manage to get hit by
a couple of rounds of storms may receive locally heavy rainfall.

Flooding is expected along portions of the Mississippi River late
this week and into the following week. Please see the latest
Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Severe thunderstorms are likley Thursday afternoon and evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has the entire area in a slight risk for
severe storms on Thursday. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few
tornadoes will all be possible. Locally heavy rainfall will also
be a factor under the passing thunderstorm clusters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon and evening, and
again Thursday afternoon and evening. Please report any severe
weather to the Quad Cities Weather Forecast Office.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
557 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     HAIL             4 N HITT                42.05N 89.73W
05/02/2018  M1.25 INCH       CARROLL            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PETERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
605 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             2 ESE CLINTON           41.83N 90.21W
05/02/2018  M0.75 INCH       CLINTON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PETERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
622 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     HAIL             MORRISON                41.81N 89.97W
05/02/2018  M1.00 INCH       WHITESIDE          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PETERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     HAIL             CLINTON                 41.84N 90.23W
05/02/2018  M1.00 INCH       CLINTON            IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DELAYED REPORT

&&

PETERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
627 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     HAIL             1 WNW MORRISON          41.81N 89.98W
05/02/2018  M1.50 INCH       WHITESIDE          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PETERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
630 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             MORRISON                41.81N 89.97W
05/02/2018  M1.75 INCH       WHITESIDE          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PETERS