Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Quad Cities, IA

859 
WWUS53 KDVN 150219
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
919 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

IAC057-087-150315-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180515T0315Z/
Henry IA-Des Moines IA-
919 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HENRY AND WESTERN DES MOINES COUNTIES...

At 919 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Mount Union, or
near Mount Pleasant, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Pleasant, New London, Mediapolis, Winfield, Danville,
Middletown, Mount Union, Big Hollow Recreation Area, Pleasant Grove,
Mount Pleasant Municipal Arpt, Yarmouth and Prairie Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
the Quad Cities.

&&

LAT...LON 4101 9161 4114 9149 4109 9137 4108 9137
      4107 9133 4101 9117 4078 9128
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 302DEG 17KT 4102 9146 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Ervin

775 
WWUS53 KDVN 150224
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
924 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

IAC057-087-150315-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180515T0315Z/
Henry IA-Des Moines IA-
924 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HENRY AND WESTERN DES MOINES COUNTIES...

At 924 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Mount Union, or
near Mount Pleasant, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Pleasant, New London, Mediapolis, Danville, Middletown, Mount
Union, Big Hollow Recreation Area, Pleasant Grove, Mount Pleasant
Municipal Arpt, Yarmouth and Prairie Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
the Quad Cities.

&&

LAT...LON 4101 9161 4110 9146 4109 9137 4108 9137
      4107 9133 4101 9117 4078 9128
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 303DEG 16KT 4101 9144 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Ervin

843 
WWUS53 KDVN 150233
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
933 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

IAC057-087-150315-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180515T0315Z/
Henry IA-Des Moines IA-
933 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL HENRY AND WESTERN DES MOINES COUNTIES...

At 933 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near New London, or
7 miles east of Mount Pleasant, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Pleasant, New London, Mediapolis, Danville, Middletown, Mount
Union, Big Hollow Recreation Area, Pleasant Grove, Mount Pleasant
Municipal Arpt, Yarmouth and Prairie Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
the Quad Cities.

&&

LAT...LON 4101 9161 4105 9145 4109 9137 4108 9137
      4107 9133 4101 9117 4078 9128
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 306DEG 16KT 4098 9141 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Ervin

599 
WWUS53 KDVN 150235
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
935 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

IAC057-087-150315-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180515T0315Z/
Henry IA-Des Moines IA-
935 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL HENRY AND WESTERN DES MOINES COUNTIES...

At 935 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over New London, or
8 miles east of Mount Pleasant, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Pleasant, New London, Mediapolis, Danville, Middletown, Mount
Union, Big Hollow Recreation Area, Pleasant Grove, Mount Pleasant
Municipal Arpt, Yarmouth and Prairie Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
the Quad Cities.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4099 9158 4105 9145 4109 9137 4108 9137
      4107 9133 4101 9117 4078 9128
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 306DEG 18KT 4097 9138 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Ervin

420 
WWUS53 KDVN 150245
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
945 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

IAC057-087-150315-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180515T0315Z/
Henry IA-Des Moines IA-
945 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL HENRY AND WESTERN DES MOINES COUNTIES...

At 945 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over New London, or
near Mount Pleasant, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Pleasant, New London, Mediapolis, Danville, Middletown, Big
Hollow Recreation Area, Pleasant Grove, Mount Pleasant Municipal
Arpt, Yarmouth and Prairie Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
the Quad Cities.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4099 9158 4102 9151 4103 9140 4104 9134
      4105 9129 4101 9117 4078 9128
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 295DEG 29KT 4094 9145 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Ervin

594 
WWUS53 KDVN 150251
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
951 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

IAC057-087-150300-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180515T0315Z/
Henry IA-Des Moines IA-
951 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL HENRY AND WESTERN
DES MOINES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is 
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4099 9158 4102 9151 4103 9140 4104 9134
      4105 9129 4101 9117 4078 9128
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 308DEG 20KT 4092 9142 

$$

Ervin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
639 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

The severe weather risk continues to decrease as the main surface
boundary for storms and untapped CAPE is found well south and east
of the CWA at this time. The cirrus shield has served well to
limit hail production in all storms in our east, but we kept the
severe watch going for Putnam county since there were at least a
few stronger cells nearby them. This last county will be cancelled
when activity drifts a bit farther away.

Pops have been lowered a bit overnight, but kept in high chance to
likely as all mesocale/CAMS show more elevated storms overnight
that are slow movers and unlikely to bring much severe weather
threat. I've updated some of our social media graphics to reflect
a lower severe threat.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Stationary frontal boundary extended from near the IA/MO border
into se IA and far northern IL. The best moisture transport
extended across northern MO, extreme eastern IA and
central/northern IL. SBCAPES were about 3500 J/KG but the low
level bulk shear was rather weak. Main severe risk will be large
hail and damaging wind given the high CAPE.

Temperatures ranged from the lower 70s nw to around 90 se.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Forecast focus on convection tonight.

Tonight: Will have likely pops for much of tonight with the main
areas of storms expected in our southern and eastern counties
closer to the boundary. A short wave will be arriving overnight to
aid in convection. HIRES suggest less coverage of storms in our
northern cwa where 2-3 inches of rain fell overnight but will
still need to monitor for isolated flash flooding if any stronger
storms impact locations that had heavy rain last night. The main
severe risk will be damaging winds and large hail, mainly this
evening when the SBCAPE is higher. Lows will be in the upper 50s
to mid 60s.

Tuesday: Any lingering showers or storms (isolated to scattered
coverage) should end from west to east as the day progresses.
High pressure will be building into the area later in the day.
Highs will be in the upper 70s at most locations. Gradually drier
air will filter into the area during the afternoon as winds turn
northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Forecast focus on dry and warm the remainder of the work week
then more showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

Tuesday night through Friday night: Dry and comfortable as the
area will be in a split flow and surface high pressure. Highs will
be in the 80s with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

This weekend: Confidence is low at this time as ECMWF is much more
progressive with an upper level trough pushing into the Midwest.
This model would suggest showers and storms Saturday night.
However, the GFS indicates a frontal boundary stalling over the
area with several rounds of showers and storms all weekend. The
grids will indicate chance pops for now. Highs will be in the 80s
on Saturday and in the 70s on Sunday.

Early next week: Dry again as high pressure builds back into the
area, with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

MVFR/VFR conditions across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois will
slowly improve to VFR through 06z/15 as SHRA/TSRA dissipate and
low clouds erode. After 06z/15 it is unclear how much storms in
Missouri will prevent SHRA/TSRA from occurring across eastern
Iowa. Thus have introduced VCSH/VCTS for a very weak upper level
disturbance moving through aloft. MVFR conditions will develop as
low clouds develop/get pulled down from the north. After 14z/15
conditions will again improve to VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

On the Mississippi...the snow melt crest is progressing through
LD 19 Keokuk today, and broadly at Gregory Landing through
Tuesday. The broad crest at Gregory landing is falling short of
the Moderate flood stage. Otherwise, all other sites continue to
show river level falls, except for some temporary "bump-ups" or
fall halts due to locally heavy rainfall last night right in the
adjacent basin from Dubuque on down to Camanche. Burlington should
fall below the Major flood stage later this afternoon.

On the tributary rivers...with recent and forecast bouts of heavy
rain, most tribs are forecast to still stay within their banks.
The exception is on the lower Wapsipinicon River, where heavy
rainfall early this morning just upstream of De Witt will bump
that site temporarily up over Moderate flood stage today. The
river may then experience a small drop back below Moderate flood
this evening, before routed flow from further upstream where more
heavy rain fall last night between Independence and Anamosa,
produces another rise back above the Moderate flood stage by
Tuesday evening. Swaths of heavy rainfall last night across
northwestern Illinois will also produce rises above action stage
on the Rock River at Joslin and Moline by this Thursday.

Heavy rainfall is again possible late this afternoon and especially
tonight, with areas north of Interstate 80 and especially the HWY
30 corridor, sensitive to more heavy rainfall and associated run-
off. If more widespread heavy rainfall occurs in these northern
areas again, additional rises on the rivers in these areas are
likely, or aggravate any ongoing high water stages. Rivers such
as the Cedar, Wapsi, Maquoketa, Pecatonica, and the Rock would be
more susceptible. But there are signs in some of the latest model
runs and boundary placements that suggest tonight's widespread
heavy rain threat may occur south of the I80 corridor and thus
away from these more sensitive river basins.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Ervin
SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...08
HYDROLOGY...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1212 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-151715-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
1212 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms are expected between 3 pm and 10 pm. The
main threats will be large hail up to the size of golfballs and
damaging winds to 70 mph. Flash flooding is also possible,
especially if the storms impact areas that recently received heavy
rain. The area most at risk for severe weather is roughly south
of a line from Mount Carroll, Illinois to Sigourney, Iowa.

Additional thunderstorms are possible across the Outlook area
overnight. Lightning, small hail and locally heavy rainfall will
be the main threat with these storms.

Flooding will continue along the Mississippi River and portions of
the lower Iowa and Wapsipinicon Rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected Tuesday.
Additional storms are possible Saturday and Sunday. It is too
early to determine the potential for severe weather.

Flooding will continue along the Mississippi River, as well as
portions of the lower Iowa and Wapsipinicon Rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely for portions of the outlook area
from mid afternoon through early evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
427 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LE CLAIRE               41.60N 90.36W
05/14/2018  M1.50 INCH       SCOTT              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL AS OF 4 PM.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
437 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

ILC067-IAC111-MOC045-142200-
Hancock-Lee-Clark-
437 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HANCOCK...
SOUTHWESTERN LEE AND NORTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT

At 437 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over St.
Francisville, or 8 miles northeast of Kahoka, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Madison, Keokuk, Carthage, Nauvoo, Hamilton, Dallas City,
Montrose, Ferris, Colusa, Adrian, New Boston, Burnside, St.
Francisville, Elvaston, Pontoosuc, Bentley, Charleston, Keokuk
Airport, Nauvoo State Park and Bluff Park.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Illinois.

LAT...LON 4043 9165 4058 9166 4063 9110 4034 9108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 274DEG 19KT 4049 9159

Sheets

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
442 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             KEWANEE                 41.24N 89.93W
05/14/2018  E0.88 INCH       HENRY              IL   PUBLIC

            DIME TO NICKEL HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
453 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     HAIL             KEWANEE                 41.25N 89.92W
05/14/2018  E0.25 INCH       HENRY              IL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
737 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

ILC015-195-150100-
Whiteside-Carroll-
737 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WHITESIDE
AND SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT

At 737 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over
Milledgeville, or 12 miles northwest of Sterling, moving east at 30
mph.

Pea size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Milledgeville, Fairhaven, Chadwick, Coleta, Hitt, Franklin Corners,
Carroll County Fairgrounds, Penrose, Malvern and White Pigeon.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4183 8996 4202 8993 4209 8969 4193 8969
      4193 8963 4186 8963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 256DEG 25KT 4195 8981

Ervin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
819 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

IAC087-101-107-115-183-150200-
Henry-Louisa-Keokuk-Washington-Jefferson-
819 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HENRY...SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISA...SOUTHEASTERN KEOKUK...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT

At 819 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Coppock, or 7
miles south of Washington, moving east at 15 mph.

Pea size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Columbus Junction, Winfield, Wayland, Brighton, Richland,
Ainsworth, Columbus City, Crawfordsville, Olds, Packwood, Pleasant
Plain, Cotter, Coppock, Wyman, Fredonia, Ollie, Washington Airport,
Germanville and Virginia Grove Recreation Area.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4123 9210 4135 9137 4134 9137 4134 9126
      4107 9127 4108 9137 4107 9137 4110 9210
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 270DEG 11KT 4120 9169

Ervin