River Flood Warning 88, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
700 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

More sctrd showers and storms today, before blocked/persistent east
coast sub-tropical ridge amplifies some to the northwest for a bit
of a reprieve from all the rain by tonight through possibly early
Wednesday, or at least limiting the more widespread convective
clusters or systems through that time in the local area. But then
the area may be under the gun again mid to late week in squeeze play
zone between northern plains to upper midwest ridge and the mid
Atlantic feature mentioned earlier. Thus more rounds of rain to
possibly add to rivers and soaked terrain, plus the watch will be on
for the potential of the remnants of the gulf tropical system
getting drawn up acrs portions of the area by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

Today and tonight...30 to 40 KT southwesterly low level jet(LLJ)
currently inducing more sctrd showers and storms along LLVL
baroclinicity draped acrs the central CWA from west to east. This in
between two more organized forcing swaths by waves rolling in
southwesterlies, one exiting off to the northeast acrs southern LK
MI ATTM, and another more prominent one seen on the current water
vapor loop streaming up acrs the southern MO RVR Valley producing
more widespread convection from KS into southwestern IA. Although
some of that activity may clip the far western and northwestern CWA
later today, MCS propagation tools suggest that the bulk of it to
move northeastward and stay off to the west and northwest of the DVN
fcst area. This system may also decrease diurnally as the day goes
with some limited maintenance by associated MCV. So thinking the
main show for the local area will be by sctrd showers and storms
this morning and through midday, with higher coverage migrating
north acrs the central and northern CWA as the day progresses. With
ongoing precipital water feed of 1.8 to near 2 inches. Locally heavy
rain and very heavy rates of 1-2+ inches an hour will continue to be
the main threat, with saturated column limiting the more traditional
severe weather parameters today.

Will keep the Flash Flood watch going through 1 PM for now, as even
sctrd convection with the intense rainfall rates will have the
potential to produce more flooding in sensitive areas, especially
areas with repeated hits by heavier cells/clusters. Will hold off
extending the FFA though the afternoon for now, with several of the
latest run CAMs indicating a decrease in storm coverage to widely
sctrd or even isolated and mainly north of I80, as the afternoon
progresses. But of course the day crew will have to be on the watch
if sctrd coverage maintains longer than expected and thus the need
to extend the watch through early evening. A few isolated cells
possible north of I80 through mid evening, otherwise a bit of a
ridge amplification to the northwest and short wave eject more off
acrs north central IA/MN/western WI, should mean a quiet night
locally into Tue morning...a much needed break from the rounds of
heavy rain.

Back to today, will go with areas of fog, some locally dense, along
the Hwy 20 corridor especially from Dubuque on west, and another day
of challenging high temp fcsts with warm up potential higher than
guidance in between the showers/storms and convective debris.
Ongoing high humidity to maintain mid summer-like mugginess and
aggravating heat index readings in areas that are allowed to heat up
into the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through next Sunday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

Long range...With current upstream short wave and ongoing ridge
placement, feel most of Tuesday will be dry and unseasonably
warm/humid. Short wave propagation using high THTA-E air will look
to get shunted from the mid MO RVR Valley to western/ northwestern
WI by Wed morning. This path would keep the main strom clusters/MCS
just off to the west and northwest of the area through Wed morning,
but secondary sctrd showers and storms still still move in at least
acrs the western and northwestern third of the DVN CWA as Tue night
into early Wed morning progresses. But hopefully the real widespread
heavy rain axis will remain off to the northwest. But then from
later Wednesday through portions of Friday, the region will get
squeezed in between a large area of high pressure dumping down the
northern plains and upper Midwest, while the broad southeastern
CONUS ridge maintains some. This should bring about more sctrd
rounds of shower/thunderstorm activity these mid to late week days,
but some signs of not as fierce PWAT feed or short wave forcing for
less intense storm clusters. May be more diurnal air mass type, but
currently low confidence on this.

The main concern will then focus on the eventual path of the Gulf
tropical system and it's remnants being drawn northward toward the
region by the weekend. Earlier bouts of rain during the week will
act as precursor rain events and primers, and a direct hit by a
system dragging tropical moisture and resultant heavy rains could
really make flooding matters significantly worse, or create new
problems. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

Northward progressing sctrd showers/storms producing passing
bouts of low MVFR to IFR conditions at CID and DBQ through at
least 10 AM, before the precip coverage may move north and wane.
Will still keep some VCNTY wording from I80 north into early
afternoon, before conditions go to mainly VFR level CIGs for the
afternoon into evening. East to southeast winds of 5-10 KTs,
becoming variable around passing showers/storms today. Increasing
south to southeast winds of 7-12 KTs tonight should help limit
MVFR to IFR fog development in heavy rainfall areas. If the wind
speeds drop below 5 KTS, there may be some fog problems in
locations of partial clearing.   ..12..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

Mainly minor to moderate flooding continues or remains forecasted
over the next 7-10 days on many tributary rivers, with minor
flooding forecasted on the southern mainstem Mississippi. However,
river levels and forecasts could potentially go higher in the next
5-7+ days as we add additional rainfall.

Heavy rainfall Sunday afternoon and night yielded another round of
1 to 4 inch rain amounts, however these occurred in fairly narrow
swaths largely just clipping portions of several tributary river
basins most notably the Pecatonica. Having largely spared the tribs
with this additional rainfall forecasts are largely unchanged or
coming in a bit lower, and seeing a few sites (Kalona, Sigourney
and DeWitt) crest or recede with lower levels as runoff abates.
However, additional secondary rises at these sites are expected
through routed flow and/or additional forecasted rainfall.

As for the next 24 hours will see another round of showers and storms
today. Do not anticipate widespread heavy rain rather more swaths or
narrow corridors of 1-4 inch rainfall totals. Thus, a good chance
this rain won't have a lot of impact on river levels unless it occurs
directly over a basin in which case could result in additional and
rapid rises and higher stages.

Encouraging drier signal is present for tonight through Tuesday night
with only spotty precipitation, as drier air advects in from high
pressure over the Mid Atlantic. The surface boundary and moist
conveyor will refocus the more organized widespread heavy rain potential
to our north and west.

Concern beyond is for additional rounds of heavy rain taking aim yet
again on the region over the latter half of the week and through the
upcoming weekend with boundary stalled nearby and potential for tropical
remnants lifting northward and interacting with the front. Should this
occur then we could potentially be looking at an increased risk of
significant flash flooding and major river flooding. Something that will
be monitored very closely in the coming days.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Benton-
     Buchanan-Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Des Moines-Dubuque-Henry IA-
     Iowa-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Keokuk-Lee-Linn-Louisa-
     Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

IL...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Carroll-Jo
     Daviess-Mercer-Rock Island-Stephenson-Whiteside.

MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12
HYDROLOGY...McClure

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
518 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-041000-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
518 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across
portions of the Outlook Area today, but start to diminish in
coverage later this afternoon. Current indications suggest the
storm coverage will be higher along and north of the Interstate
80 corridor especially by midday and into the afternoon. Severe
storms are not expected today, but stronger storm cells may still
be capable of producing frequent lightning and small hail. Of
more of a threat will be heavy rain-producing storms and at high
rainfall rates. With all the recent heavy rainfall over the past
several days, today will be another day with an elevated risk of
flooding and flash flooding where new storms with the heavy
rainfall develop and move across areas already rain-soaked and
saturated. A Flash Flood Watch continues through 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for much of the Outlook Area.

Area rivers are experiencing rising water levels and flooding.
Please see the latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for
details.

Away from the storms and cloud cover, unseasonably warm
temperatures and high humidity will combine to produce heat index
readings as high as the 90s during the afternoon and early evening
hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

There will be a chance of thunderstorms almost every day through
the period, with them being more common during the late afternoon
and night time hours through Thursday. Some storms may be strong
northwest of a Dubuque Iowa, to Cedar Rapids line Tuesday evening.
Otherwise it is too soon to determine the risk of severe weather
later in the week. Any stronger storm will still have the
potential to produce more heavy rain which could lead to
additional flash flooding and river flooding.

The watch will then be on for the potential of a low pressure
system moving north from the Gulf coast that may bring widespread
rains, some possibly heavy, to the region by the weekend. This
additional rain could aggravate ongoing flooding situations, or
create new ones. There is still much uncertainty on the exact
track that this system will take, and if it will affect portions
of the Outlook area or not. Stay tuned for later updates and
forecasts concerning this potential rain system for the weekend.

Several area rivers will likely continue to experience high water
levels and flooding for much of the upcoming week, especially if
rounds of storms continue to effect portions of the Outlook Area.

Very warm temperatures and higher than normal humidity will
continue through mid week, sending heat index readings as high as
the upper 80s and 90s during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Cooler temperatures are then expected by Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

There is a low chance that spotter activation will be needed today
and tonight. However, any reports of new flooding or flash
flooding would be appreciated.

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
744 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CENTER POINT            42.19N 91.78W
09/03/2018  M3.13 INCH       LINN               IA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IA-LN-30, CENTER POINT.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N MUSCATINE           41.45N 91.07W
09/03/2018  M2.38 INCH       MUSCATINE          IA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IA-MC-13, 2 N MUSCATINE.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N MUSCATINE           41.47N 91.04W
09/03/2018  M2.34 INCH       MUSCATINE          IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION MSTI4, 2 N MUSCATINE.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSW ANAMOSA           42.08N 91.30W
09/03/2018  M2.12 INCH       JONES              IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION AMOI4, 3 SSW ANAMOSA.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CASCADE                 42.30N 91.02W
09/03/2018  M1.81 INCH       DUBUQUE            IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION CASI4, CASCADE.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SHANNON                 42.15N 89.74W
09/03/2018  M1.79 INCH       CARROLL            IL   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IL-CR-13, SHANNON.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE LAFAYETTE         42.20N 91.65W
09/03/2018  M1.77 INCH       LINN               IA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IA-LN-7, 3 NNE LAFAYETTE.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW CHADWICK          42.00N 89.94W
09/03/2018  M1.74 INCH       CARROLL            IL   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IL-CR-4, 2 WSW CHADWICK.

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE WAPSIPINICON STAT 42.09N 91.25W
09/03/2018  M1.56 INCH       JONES              IA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IA-JN-14, 1 ESE
            WAPSIPINICON STATE PARK.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE DAVENPORT          41.54N 90.59W
09/03/2018  M1.52 INCH       SCOTT              IA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IA-ST-37, 1 SE DAVENPORT.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE DAVENPORT          41.54N 90.59W
09/03/2018  M1.52 INCH       SCOTT              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST AMANA              41.81N 91.97W
09/03/2018  M1.48 INCH       IOWA               IA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IA-IA-6, WEST AMANA.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MANCHESTER              42.47N 91.45W
09/03/2018  M1.42 INCH       DELAWARE           IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION MHRI4, MANCHESTER.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       DUBUQUE #3              42.40N 90.73W
09/03/2018  M1.40 INCH       DUBUQUE            IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION DUBI4, DUBUQUE #3.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW MALVERN           41.82N 89.90W
09/03/2018  M1.35 INCH       WHITESIDE          IL   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IL-WD-5, 2 SSW MALVERN.

0630 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE CEDAR RAPIDS       42.00N 91.63W
09/03/2018  M1.35 INCH       LINN               IA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IA-LN-31, 2 NE CEDAR
            RAPIDS.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WASHINGTON              41.28N 91.68W
09/03/2018  M1.25 INCH       WASHINGTON         IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION WSHI4, WASHINGTON.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W AFOLKEY             42.43N 89.60W
09/03/2018  M1.25 INCH       STEPHENSON         IL   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IL-SP-23, 1 W AFOLKEY.

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       DAVIS                   42.43N 89.42W
09/03/2018  M1.25 INCH       STEPHENSON         IL   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IL-SP-7, DAVIS.

0652 AM     HEAVY RAIN       QUAD CITY INTL ARPT     41.45N 90.51W
09/03/2018  M1.21 INCH       ROCK ISLAND        IL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION MLI, QUAD CITY INTL ARPT.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE CEDAR RAPIDS      42.01N 91.66W
09/03/2018  M1.10 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE MIDNIGHT.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PARK VIEW               41.69N 90.54W
09/03/2018  M1.03 INCH       SCOTT              IA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IA-ST-3, PARK VIEW.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
808 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW MORRISON          41.81N 89.98W
09/03/2018  M1.10 INCH       WHITESIDE          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
836 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>066-ILZ001-002-007-031545-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque,
Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Maquoketa, Marengo, Iowa City,
Tipton, Clinton, Galena, Freeport, and Mount Carroll
836 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

...Showers And Thunderstorms With Bouts Of Heavy Rainfall...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms with passing bursts of heavy
rainfall, will continue to move northeast across the area this
morning. This activity may produce between a quarter inch, up to 1
inch of additional rainfall in some locations through 1030 AM.

The rain will lead to rises in small streams and creeks, ponding
of water on roads and in fields as well as possible minor flooding.
Ponding of water will be likely in urban areas, as well as other
poor drainage areas and low lying spots. If the rain continues
across these areas, the potential for more widespread flooding
may occur over the next several hours.

Remain cautious and avoid any areas that may see minor flooding
issues caused by the rainfall. If traveling, be prepared for
ponding of water on highways and interstates. Slow down if
visibility is reduced due to the heavy rain. Do not attempt to
drive through flooded roadways if you encounter them.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the area through 1 PM
this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
850 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       DE WITT                 41.82N 90.57W
09/03/2018  M1.85 INCH       CLINTON            IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION DWTI4, DE WITT.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MONTICELLO              42.25N 91.17W
09/03/2018  M1.76 INCH       JONES              IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION MCLI4, MONTICELLO.

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FULTON                  42.15N 90.68W
09/03/2018  M1.42 INCH       JACKSON            IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION FULI4, FULTON.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N CENTER GROVE        42.50N 90.72W
09/03/2018  M1.05 INCH       DUBUQUE            IA   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IA-DB-19, 1 N CENTER GROVE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
900 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE STONE CITY        42.14N 91.33W
09/03/2018  E2.50 INCH       JONES              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW MUSCATINE         41.44N 91.08W
09/03/2018  M1.94 INCH       MUSCATINE          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

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